Karen Khachanov and Alex Michelsen will fight against each other in the 3rd round of the Australian Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 11:00 am on John Cain Arena. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Karen Khachanov who should win in 5 sets.
As per the initial odds, Karen Khachanov is the pick to win this match.
Karen Khachanov -> 1.68
Alex Michelsen -> 2.19
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Prediction and head to head Karen Khachanov vs. Alex Michelsen
There is no head to head record between Karen Khachanov and Alex Michelsen since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Karen Khachanov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11-11 | 5-6 | 6-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-22 | 14-12 | 8-4 | 14-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 34-18 | 18-10 | 10-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 36-25 | 17-11 | 9-7 | 6-5 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-24 | 17-9 | 5-6 | 8-6 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 19, the Russian reached the 3rd round after beating Adrian Mannarino 7-6(5) 6-3 6-3 and Gabriel Diallo 7-6(4) 4-6 6-3 6-3.
In the 2nd round, The Russian defeated Diallo (7-64 4-6 6-3 6-3). During the match, Khachanov scored 135 points vs Diallo’s 122. Karen was extremely aggressive to blast 56 winners.
Regarding the service games, Khachanov managed to score 10 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Karen Khachanov was pretty effective on serve to win 79% (56/71) of his 1st serve and 63% (32/51) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Russian broke Diallo 3 times after converting 30% of his break points (3/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Khachanov has lost 1 set in this event to conquer 55% of the points he played.
Khachanov has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 60% of his matches (318-215). 2-1 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Khachanov has an aggregate 129-89 record in the last years on hard.
Khachanov has an aggregate 2-1 win-loss record in 2025, 2-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Alex Michelsen
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-12 | 10-7 | 6-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-34 | 26-14 | 4-9 | 8-5 | 7-6 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 61-27 | 30-13 | 4-3 | 19-7 | 8-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 23-10 | 14-8 | 0-1 | 9-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 42, the American reached the 3rd round after beating Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-5 6-3 2-6 6-4 and James McCabe 7-5 6-3 7-6(4).
In the 2nd round, Michelsen had a good straight sets win against McCabe (7-5 6-3 7-64). During the match Michelsen scored 118 points vs McCabe’s 88. Michelsen was exceptionally aggressive to blast 61 winners.
Talking about serving, Michelsen blasted 8 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Alex Michelsen was quite effective on serve to win 80% (61/76) of his 1st serve and 70% (14/20) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Michelsen broke McCabe twice after converting 14% of his break points (2/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Alex has an aggregate 5-2 win-loss record in 2025, 5-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Khachanov | Michelsen |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 72 | 73 |
| Pts | 243-201 | 240-206 |
| Total Points | 444 | 446 |
| Winners | 100 | 120 |
| %Winners | 41% | 50% |
Both Khachanov and Michelsen played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Karen Khachanov lost 1 set, while Alex Michelsen dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Khachanov and Michelsen have played the same amount of sets 7. However, Khachanov played 1 game less than Michelsen. Khachanov scored 100 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Alex managed to score 120 winners (50%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Khachanov | Michelsen |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 16 | 16 |
| Avg per match | 8 | 8 |
| 1st in | 124/203 | 161/220 |
| %1st in | 61% | 73% |
| 1st pts | 100/124 | 120/161 |
| %1st pts | 81% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 46/79 | 34/59 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 58% |
Khachanov blasted 16 aces (8 per match). Michelsen managed to score 16 aces (8 per match). Khachanov won 81% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Michelsen won 75% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Khachanov | Michelsen |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 9 | 7 |
| Converted | 9/20 | 7/26 |
| % Converted | 45% | 27% |
| Conceded | 9 | 7 |
| Saved | 5 | 3 |
| % Saved | 56% | 43% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 |
Khachanov broke his opponents 9 times with a 45% conversion rate. Khachanov lost his serve 4 times and he saved 56% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponents 7 times with a 27% conversion rate. Alex conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 43% of the break points that he conceded.
| Khachanov | ||||
| R1 Mannarino |
R2 Diallo |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-65 6-3 6-3 | 7-64 4-6 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 41 | 72 | |
| pts | 108-79 | 135-122 | 243-201 | |
| Total points | 187 | 257 | 444 | |
| Winners | 44 | 56 | 100 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 41% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 10 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 53/81 | 71/122 | 124/203 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 58% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 44/53 | 56/71 | 100/124 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 79% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/28 | 32/51 | 46/79 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 63% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 6 | 3 | 9 | |
| Converted | 6/10 | 3/10 | 9/20 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 30% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| Saved | 1/4 | 4/5 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 25% | 80% | 53% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Michelsen | ||||
| R1 Tsitsipas |
R2 McCabe |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-3 2-6 6-4 | 7-5 6-3 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 39 | 34 | 73 | |
| pts | 122-118 | 118-88 | 240-206 | |
| Total points | 240 | 206 | 446 | |
| Winners | 59 | 61 | 120 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 52% | 50% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 8 | 8 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | 2 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 85/124 | 76/96 | 161/220 | |
| % 1st in | 69% | 79% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 59/85 | 61/76 | 120/161 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 80% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/39 | 14/20 | 34/59 | |
| % 2nd pts | 51% | 70% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| Converted | 5/12 | 2/14 | 7/26 | |
| Converted % | 42% | 14% | 27% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 0 | 7 | |
| Saved | 3/7 | 0/0 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 43% | – | 22% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
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