Paula Badosa and Marta Kostyuk will play each other in the 3^rd round of the Australian Open for the 5^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 12:30 pm on Kia Arena. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Paula Badosa who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Paula Badosa is the pick to win this match.
Paula Badosa -> 1.6
Marta Kostyuk -> 2.34

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Prediction and head to head Paula Badosa vs. Marta Kostyuk

This will be the 5^th time that Paula Badosa and Marta Kostyuk play each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Badosa (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they competed against each other, Kostyuk won 6-2 1-0 ret. in the 2^nd round in at the Wimbledon back in 2023.

Paula Badosa

Ranked no. 12, the Spaniard reached the 3^rd round after defeating Xinyu Wang 6-3 7-6(5) and Talia Gibson 6-1 6-0.

In the 2^nd round, Badosa had a good straight sets win against Gibson (6-1 6-0). During the match, Badosa scored 51 points vs Gibson’s 21. The Spaniard was pretty aggressive to blast 19 winners.

Talking about the service games, Badosa struck 3 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Paula Badosa was very effective on serve to win 86% (19/22) of her 1st serve and 67% (12/18) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Paula was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Gibson 5 times.

Overall Performance in this tournament

Paula hasn’t lost yet a set in this event to win 58% of the points she played.

Badosa has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 64% of her matches (300-169). 3-2 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Badosa has an overall 118-68 record in the last years on hard.

Badosa has a compiled 3-2 win-loss record in 2025, 3-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Marta Kostyuk

Ranked no. 18, Kostyuk reached the 3^rd round after beating Nao Hibino 3-6 6-3 6-1 and Jule Niemeier 6-3 6-0.

In the 2^nd round, Marta had a good straight sets win against Niemeier (6-3 6-0). During the match Kostyuk scored 57 points vs Niemeier’s 33. Kostyuk was pretty aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Talking about serving, Kostyuk blasted 3 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Marta Kostyuk lost the serve once and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Kostyuk put 67% of her first serves in, winning 78% (25/32) of the points behind her 1st serve and 44% (7/16) on the 2nd serve. Kostyuk broke Niemeier 5 times after converting 83% of her break points (5/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Kostyuk has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 58% of the points she played.

Kostyuk has a compiled 2-2 win-loss record in 2025, 2-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2024. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Badosa	Kostyuk
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	4	5
Tot Games	35	40
Pts	116-83	138-102
Total Points	199	240
Winners	53	63
%Winners	46%	46%

Both Badosa and Kostyuk played 2 matches. At the moment, Marta Kostyuk lost 1 set while Paula Badosa hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Badosa has played 1 set(s) less than Kostyuk (4 vs 5). Therefore, Badosa played 5 games less than Kostyuk. Paula scored 53 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, The Ukrainian blasted 63 winners (46%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Badosa	Kostyuk
Aces	6	9
Avg per match	3	4.5
1st in	73/109	82/137
%1st in	67%	60%
1st pts	53/73	63/82
%1st pts	73%	77%
2nd pts	22/36	23/55
%2nd pts	61%	42%

Badosa made 6 aces (3 per match). Kostyuk fired 9 aces (4.5 per match). Badosa won 73% points behind her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Kostyuk won 77% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 42% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Badosa	Kostyuk
Won	8	10
Converted	8/8	10/11
% Converted	100%	91%
Conceded	3	17
Saved	1	13
% Saved	33%	76%
Times Broken	2	4

Badosa broke her opponents 8 times with a 100% conversion rate. Paula surrendered her serve twice and she saved 33% of the break points that she conceded. Marta broke her opponents 10 times with a 91% conversion rate. Kostyuk conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 76% of the break points that she conceded.

Badosa
	R1 Wang	R2 Gibson	Total
Score	6-3 7-65	6-1 6-0
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	22	13	35
pts	65-62	51-21	116-83
Total points	127	72	199
Winners	34	19	53
%Winners	52%	37%	46%
SERVE
Aces	3	3	6
Double Faults	2	2	4
1st in	51/69	22/40	73/109
% 1st in	74%	55%	67%
1st pts	34/51	19/22	53/73
% 1st pts	67%	86%	73%
2nd pts	10/18	12/18	22/36
% 2nd pts	56%	67%	61%
Breaks
Won	3	5	8
Converted	3/3	5/5	8/8
Converted %	100%	100%	100%
Conceded	3	0	3
Saved	1/3	0/0	1
Saved %	33%	–	17%
Times Broken	2	0	2

Kostyuk
	R1 Hibino	R2 Niemeier	Total
Score	3-6 6-3 6-1	6-3 6-0
Tot Set	3	2	5
Tot Games	25	15	40
pts	81-69	57-33	138-102
Total points	150	90	240
Winners	38	25	63
%Winners	47%	44%	46%
SERVE
Aces	6	3	9
Double Faults	11	4	15
1st in	50/89	32/48	82/137
% 1st in	56%	67%	60%
1st pts	38/50	25/32	63/82
% 1st pts	76%	78%	77%
2nd pts	16/39	7/16	23/55
% 2nd pts	41%	44%	42%
Breaks
Won	5	5	10
Converted	5/5	5/6	10/11
Converted %	100%	83%	91%
Conceded	13	4	17
Saved	10/13	3/4	13
Saved %	77%	75%	76%
Times Broken	3	1	4

Tennis Scores – Australian Open

• Dayana YastremskaYastremska – Danka KovinicKovinic (6-0 6-1) – See score progression
• Daria KasatkinaKasatkina – Yafan WangWang (6-2 6-0) – See score progression
• Emma NavarroNavarro – Xiyu WangWang (6-3 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Shuai ZhangZhang (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
• Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Erika AndreevaAndreeva (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Iva JovicJovic (6-0 6-3) – See score progression
• Ons JabeurJabeur – Maria Camila Osorio SerranoCamila Osorio Serrano (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Rebecca SramkovaSramkova (6-0 6-2) – See score progression
• Donna VekicVekic – Harriet DartDart (4-6 6-0 6-2) – See score progression
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Elise Mertens
  Mertens (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Moyuka UchijimaUchijima (6-4 3-6 7-6⁸) – See score progression
• Olga DanilovicDanilovic – Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
• Clara TausonTauson – Tatjana MariaMaria (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Marta KostyukKostyuk – Jule NiemeierNiemeier (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
• Naomi OsakaOsaka – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (1-6 6-1 6-3) – See score progression
• Magdalena FrechFrech – Anna BlinkovaBlinkova (0-6 6-0 6-2) – See score progression
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Jessica Bouzas ManeiroBouzas Maneiro (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Ajla TomljanovicTomljanovic (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
• Paula BadosaBadosa – Talia GibsonGibson (6-1 6-0) – See score progression
• Belinda BencicBencic – Suzan LamensLamens (6-1 7-6³) – See score progression
• Cori GauffGauff – Jodie Anna BurrageAnna Burrage (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez – Cristina BucsaBucsa (3-6 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (7-6² 2-6 6-2) – See score progression
• Laura SiegemundSiegemund – Qinwen ZhengZheng (7-6³ 6-3) – See score progression
• Bart StevensStevens – Adil KalyanpurKalyanpur (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Karl FribergFriberg – Marius RuzgasRuzgas (6-4 4-6 7-5) – See score progression
• Florian LakatLakat – Vladimir IvanovIvanov (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Gustav HanssonHansson – Mark WhitehouseWhitehouse (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
• George BotezanBotezan – Lorenzo BocchiBocchi (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Ronald SlobodchikovSlobodchikov – Simon FreundFreund (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Markus ErikssonEriksson – John Hallquist LithenHallquist Lithen (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
• Dragos Nicolae MadarasNicolae Madaras – Filip BergeviBergevi (7-6³ 6-4) – See score progression
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Iva JovicJovic (6-0 6-3) – See score progression
• Dayana YastremskaYastremska – Danka KovinicKovinic (6-0 6-1) – See score progression
• Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Erika AndreevaAndreeva (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Emma NavarroNavarro – Xiyu WangWang (6-3 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Ons JabeurJabeur – Maria Camila Osorio SerranoCamila Osorio Serrano (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Shuai ZhangZhang (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
• Daria KasatkinaKasatkina – Yafan WangWang (6-2 6-0) – See score progression
• Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Rebecca SramkovaSramkova (6-0 6-2) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Madison KeysKeys – Elena Gabriela RuseGabriela Ruse (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Destanee AiavaAiava – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Katie BoulterBoulter (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Caroline DolehideDolehide (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Renata ZarazuaZarazua – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Eva LysLys – Varvara GrachevaGracheva (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jaqueline CristianCristian – Lucia BronzettiBronzetti (4-1) – H2H and prediction
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Clara TausonTauson (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Magdalena FrechFrech – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova – Laura SiegemundSiegemund (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Cori GauffGauff – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Naomi OsakaOsaka – Belinda BencicBencic (2-3) – H2H and prediction
• Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Marta KostyukKostyuk (3-1) – H2H and prediction
• Olga DanilovicDanilovic – Jessica PegulaPegula (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Dayana YastremskaYastremska (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Emma NavarroNavarro – Ons JabeurJabeur (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (0-3) – H2H and prediction