Carlos Alcaraz and Nuno Borges will square off in the 3rd round of the Australian Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 2:00 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.025
Nuno Borges -> 13
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Nuno Borges
This will be the 2nd time that Carlos Alcaraz and Nuno Borges play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Alcaraz won 6-3 6-1 in the 2nd round in Barcelona back in 2023.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Nuno Borges – Barcelona 18-April-2023
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 30-5 | 10-4 | 15-1 | 5-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, Carlos got to the 3rd round after defeating Alexander Shevchenko 6-1 7-5 6-1 and Yoshihito Nishioka 6-0 6-1 6-4.
In the 2nd round, Carlos had a good straight sets win against Nishioka (6-0 6-1 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 80 points vs Nishioka’s 41. Carlos was quite aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Regarding the service games, Alcaraz bagged 14 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz was extremely effective on serve to win 89% (32/36) of his 1st serve and 71% (17/24) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Carlos broke Nishioka 6 times after converting 60% of his break points (6/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Carlos hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to win 63% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 79% of his matches (289-78). 2-0 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Alcaraz has a compiled99-27 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.
The Spaniard has a composed 2-0 win-loss record in 2025, 2-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Nuno Borges
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19-16 | 11-8 | 7-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 33-26 | 20-12 | 13-7 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-26 | 20-11 | 8-7 | 6-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 49-26 | 7-5 | 28-13 | 11-5 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 52-21 | 6-4 | 46-17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 33, Nuno got to the 3rd round after beating Alexandre Muller 6-7(2) 6-3 6-2 7-5 and Jordan Thompson 6-3 6-2 6-4.
In the 2nd round, The Portuguese had a good straight sets win against Thompson (6-3 6-2 6-4). During the match Borges scored 96 points vs Thompson’s 66. Borges was quite aggressive to blast 46 winners.
Talking about serving, Borges scored 6 aces and he was extremely consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Nuno Borges was very effective on serve to win 74% (46/62) of his 1st serve and 79% (15/19) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Borges broke Thompson 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Portuguese has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
Borges’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Auckland.
Nuno has a composed 6-2 win-loss record in 2025, 6-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Borges |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 49 | 69 |
| Pts | 182-109 | 231-179 |
| Total Points | 291 | 410 |
| Winners | 65 | 112 |
| %Winners | 36% | 48% |
Both Alcaraz and Borges played 2 matches. At the moment, Nuno Borges conceded 1 set while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set so far. Alcaraz has played 1 set(s) less than Borges (6 vs 7). Therefore, Alcaraz played 20 games less than Borges. Alcaraz scored 65 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Borges blasted 112 winners (48%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Borges |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 20 | 26 |
| Avg per match | 10 | 13 |
| 1st in | 84/141 | 147/204 |
| %1st in | 60% | 72% |
| 1st pts | 65/84 | 112/147 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 39/57 | 36/57 |
| %2nd pts | 68% | 63% |
Alcaraz managed to score 20 aces (10 per match). Borges blasted 26 aces (13 per match). Alcaraz won 77% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 68% of the points. On the other side, Borges won 76% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 63% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Borges |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 14 | 9 |
| Converted | 14/29 | 9/19 |
| % Converted | 48% | 47% |
| Conceded | 4 | 7 |
| Saved | 2 | 6 |
| % Saved | 50% | 86% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 |
The Spaniard broke his opponents 14 times with a 48% conversion rate. Carlos dropped his serve twice and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. The Portuguese broke his opponents 9 times with a 47% conversion rate. Nuno conceded his serve once and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | ||||
| R1 Shevchenko |
R2 Nishioka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 7-5 6-1 | 6-0 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 23 | 49 | |
| pts | 102-68 | 80-41 | 182-109 | |
| Total points | 170 | 121 | 291 | |
| Winners | 33 | 32 | 65 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 40% | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 14 | 20 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 48/81 | 36/60 | 84/141 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 60% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 33/48 | 32/36 | 65/84 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 89% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/33 | 17/24 | 39/57 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 71% | 68% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 8 | 6 | 14 | |
| Converted | 8/19 | 6/10 | 14/29 | |
| Converted % | 42% | 60% | 48% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 0/0 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 50% | – | 25% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Borges | ||||
| R1 Muller |
R2 Thompson |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-72 6-3 6-2 7-5 | 6-3 6-2 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 42 | 27 | 69 | |
| pts | 135-113 | 96-66 | 231-179 | |
| Total points | 248 | 162 | 410 | |
| Winners | 66 | 46 | 112 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 48% | 48% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 20 | 6 | 26 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 85/123 | 62/81 | 147/204 | |
| % 1st in | 69% | 77% | 72% | |
| 1st pts | 66/85 | 46/62 | 112/147 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 74% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/38 | 15/19 | 36/57 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 79% | 63% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 4/9 | 9/19 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 44% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 2/2 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 100% | 90% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWLWWW
LWLLWLWLWW Tennis Scores – Australian Open
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Facundo Diaz AcostaDiaz Acosta (6-2 1-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Ben SheltonShelton – Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta (6-3 6-3 6-74 6-4) – See score progression
- Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (6-4 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Taylor FritzFritz – Cristian GarinGarin (6-2 6-1 6-0) – See score progression
- Gael MonfilsMonfils – Daniel AltmaierAltmaier (7-5 6-3 7-63) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Tristan BoyerBoyer (6-2 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (7-63 7-66 6-2) – See score progression
- Arthur FilsFils – Quentin HalysHalys (6-2 4-6 7-62 7-5) – See score progression
- Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Hugo GastonGaston (6-3 3-1 ret.) – See score progression
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Jaime FariaFaria (6-1 6-74 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero (6-1 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka (6-0 6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Nuno BorgesBorges – Jordan ThompsonThompson (6-3 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Jack DraperDraper – Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis (6-73 6-3 3-6 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena – James DuckworthDuckworth (6-4 6-2 7-5) – See score progression
- Benjamin BonziBonzi – Francesco PassaroPassaro (6-2 6-4 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Aleksandar VukicVukic – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-4 3-6 2-6 6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime (6-77 6-75 6-4 6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Ugo HumbertHumbert – Hady HabibHabib (6-3 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Jakub MensikMensik – Casper RuudRuud (6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Tommy PaulPaul – Kei NishikoriNishikori (6-73 6-0 6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Tomas MachacMachac – Reilly OpelkaOpelka (3-6 7-61 6-75 7-64 6-4) – See score progression
- Jacob FearnleyFearnley – Arthur CazauxCazaux (3-6 7-5 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (6-4 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Gabriel DialloDiallo (7-6(4) 4-6 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Facundo Diaz AcostaDiaz Acosta (6-2 1-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Tristan BoyerBoyer (6-2 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Cristian GarinGarin (6-2 6-1 6-0) – See score progression
- Gael MonfilsMonfils – Daniel AltmaierAltmaier (7-5 6-3 7-6(3)) – See score progression
- Ben SheltonShelton – Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta (6-3 6-3 6-7(4) 6-4) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (7-6(3) 7-6(6) 6-2) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Tomas MachacMachac (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Marcos GironGiron – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena – Tommy PaulPaul (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Gael MonfilsMonfils (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Nuno BorgesBorges – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Mitchell KruegerKrueger (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Ugo HumbertHumbert – (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Tristan SchoolkateSchoolkate (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Fabian MarozsanMarozsan – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Benjamin BonziBonzi (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Aleksandar VukicVukic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jacob FearnleyFearnley – Alexander ZverevZverev (0-0) – H2H and prediction
