Lorenzo Musetti and Denis Shapovalov will clash against each other in the 2^nd round of the Australian Open for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 1:00 pm on Court 3. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Denis Shapovalov who should win in 5 sets.

As per the initial odds, Denis Shapovalov is the pick to win this match.
Denis Shapovalov -> 1.9
Lorenzo Musetti -> 1.9

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Prediction and head to head Lorenzo Musetti vs. Denis Shapovalov

This will be the 2^nd time that Lorenzo Musetti and Denis Shapovalov play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Musetti (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Musetti won 6-4 2-6 7-5 in the 2^nd round in Indian wells back in 2024.

Lorenzo Musetti

Ranked no. 15 (career-high), Musetti got to the 2^nd round after beating Matteo Arnaldi 7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(5) 6-3.

In the 1^st round, Musetti defeated Arnaldi (7-6⁴ 4-6 7-6⁵ 6-3). During the match, Musetti scored 169 points vs Arnaldi’s 161. Lorenzo was pretty aggressive to blast 56 winners.

Regarding the service games, Musetti struck 6 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Lorenzo Musetti lost the serve 8 times and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Musetti put 61% of his first serves in, winning 63% (56/89) of the points behind his 1st serve and 52% (30/58) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Arnaldi 9 times after converting 32% of his break points (9/28).

Musetti has a winning win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 58% of his matches (222-162). 2-1 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Musetti has an overall52-47 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.

The Italian has an aggregate 2-1 win-loss record in 2025, 2-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Denis Shapovalov

Ranked no. 56, the Canadian reached the 2^nd round after beating Roberto Bautista Agut 3-6 6-4 6-4 7-6(8).

In the 1^st round against Bautista-Agut, Shapovalov recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-4 6-4 7-6⁸). During the match Shapovalov scored 136 points vs Bautista-Agut’s 131. The Canadian was very aggressive to blast 55 winners.

About the serving games, Shapovalov submerged his opponent with 24 aces and he was not very steady on his 2nd serve to score 15 double faults. Denis Shapovalov lost the serve 4 times and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Shapovalov put 48% of his first serves in, winning 87% (55/63) of the points behind his 1st serve and 38% (26/68) on the 2nd serve. Denis broke Bautista-Agut 4 times after converting 24% of his break points (4/17).

Denis has an overall 2-2 win-loss record in 2025, 2-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2022. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Musetti	Shapovalov
Match played	1	1
Tot Set	4	4
Tot Games	45	42
Pts	169-161	136-131
Total Points	330	267
Winners	56	55
%Winners	33%	40%

Both Musetti and Shapovalov played 1 match. Both players lost a set in the event. Lorenzo Musetti dropped 1 set, while Denis Shapovalov lost 1 set. Talking about their workload, Musetti and Shapovalov have played the same amount of sets 4. However, Musetti played 3 games more than Shapovalov. The Italian scored 56 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, The Canadian fired 55 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Musetti	Shapovalov
Aces	6	24
Avg per match	6	24
1st in	89/147	63/131
%1st in	61%	48%
1st pts	56/89	55/63
%1st pts	63%	87%
2nd pts	30/58	26/68
%2nd pts	52%	38%

Musetti blasted 6 aces . Shapovalov blasted 24 aces . Musetti won 63% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Shapovalov won 87% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 38% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Musetti	Shapovalov
Won	9	4
Converted	9/28	4/17
% Converted	32%	24%
Conceded	16	10
Saved	8	6
% Saved	50%	60%
Times Broken	8	4

Lorenzo broke his opponent 9 times with a 32% conversion rate. Musetti surrendered his serve 8 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Shapovalov broke his opponent 4 times with a 24% conversion rate. Shapovalov conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded.

Musetti
	R1 Arnaldi	Total
Score	7-64 4-6 7-65 6-3
Tot Set	4	4
Tot Games	45	45
pts	169-161	169-161
Total points	330	330
Winners	56	56
%Winners	33%	33%
SERVE
Aces	6	6
Double Faults	5	5
1st in	89/147	89/147
% 1st in	61%	61%
1st pts	56/89	56/89
% 1st pts	63%	63%
2nd pts	30/58	30/58
% 2nd pts	52%	52%
Breaks
Won	9	9
Converted	9/28	9/28
Converted %	32%	32%
Conceded	16	16
Saved	8/16	8
Saved %	50%	50%
Times Broken	8	8

Shapovalov
	R1 Bautista-Agut	Total
Score	3-6 6-4 6-4 7-68
Tot Set	4	4
Tot Games	42	42
pts	136-131	136-131
Total points	267	267
Winners	55	55
%Winners	40%	40%
SERVE
Aces	24	24
Double Faults	15	15
1st in	63/131	63/131
% 1st in	48%	48%
1st pts	55/63	55/63
% 1st pts	87%	87%
2nd pts	26/68	26/68
% 2nd pts	38%	38%
Breaks
Won	4	4
Converted	4/17	4/17
Converted %	24%	24%
Conceded	10	10
Saved	6/10	6
Saved %	60%	60%
Times Broken	4	4

Tennis Scores – Australian Open

• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka (6-0 6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jakub MensikMensik – Casper RuudRuud (6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Ugo HumbertHumbert – Hady HabibHabib (6-3 6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Jaime FariaFaria (6-1 6-7⁴ 6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero (6-1 6-4 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Aleksandar VukicVukic – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-4 3-6 2-6 6-3 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Jordan ThompsonThompson (6-3 6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Hugo GastonGaston (6-3 3-1 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Arthur FilsFils – Quentin HalysHalys (6-2 4-6 7-6² 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jacob FearnleyFearnley – Arthur CazauxCazaux (3-6 7-5 6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena – James DuckworthDuckworth (6-4 6-2 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Benjamin BonziBonzi – Francesco PassaroPassaro (6-2 6-4 3-6 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Tomas MachacMachac – Reilly OpelkaOpelka (3-6 7-6¹ 6-7⁵ 7-6⁴ 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Tomas MachacMachac (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Kei NishikoriNishikori – Tommy PaulPaul (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Marcos GironGiron – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Gael MonfilsMonfils (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (1-3) – H2H and prediction
• Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Christian GarinGarin (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Corentin MoutetMoutet – Mitchell KruegerKrueger (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (0-4) – H2H and prediction
• Ugo HumbertHumbert – (4-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Tristan SchoolkateSchoolkate (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Fabian MarozsanMarozsan – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Facundo Diaz AcostaDiaz Acosta (2-2) – H2H and prediction
• Tristan BoyerBoyer – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Benjamin BonziBonzi (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jack DraperDraper – Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jacob FearnleyFearnley – Alexander ZverevZverev (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Gabriel DialloDiallo – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (0-2) – H2H and prediction