Holger Rune and Matteo Berrettini will square off in the 2nd round of the Australian Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 5:00 pm on John Cain Arena. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Holger Rune who should win in 5 sets.
As per the initial odds, Holger Rune is the pick to win this match.
Holger Rune -> 1.84
Matteo Berrettini -> 1.96
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Prediction and head to head Holger Rune vs. Matteo Berrettini
This will be the 5th time that Holger Rune and Matteo Berrettini fight against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Rune (see full H2H stats), 3-1 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Rune won 4-6 6-4 6-3 in the 2nd round in Shanghai back in 2024.
Highlights Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini – Shanghai 07-October-2024
Holger Rune
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16-10 | 9-5 | 5-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-24 | 21-12 | 11-6 | 10-4 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 44-24 | 10-10 | 16-4 | 11-8 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-27 | 8-9 | 21-11 | 21-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 73-29 | 11-5 | 41-17 | 21-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 13, Rune reached the 2nd round after defeating Zhizhen Zhang 4-6 6-3 6-4 3-6 6-4.
In the 1st round, The Dane had a tough win against Zhang to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (4-6 6-3 6-4 3-6 6-4). During the match, Rune scored 142 points vs Zhang’s 131. Holger was very aggressive to blast 62 winners.
Regarding the service games, Rune managed to score 10 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Holger Rune was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 72% (62/86) of his 1st serve and 69% (31/45) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve 3 times. The Dane broke Zhang 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).
Rune has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 66% of his matches (252-131). 1-1 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Rune has a compiled52-43 record in the last 8 years on hard.
Holger has a compiled 1-1 win-loss record in 2025, 1-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Matteo Berrettini
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-9 | 9-6 | 3-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 36-13 | 7-6 | 15-1 | 8-3 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 14-12 | 9-10 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 32-12 | 15-9 | 4-2 | 4-1 | 9-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 41-12 | 14-5 | 13-4 | 3-2 | 11-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 34, Matteo reached the 2nd round after defeating Cameron Norrie 6-7(4) 6-4 6-1 6-3.
In the 1st round against Norrie, The Italian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-74 6-4 6-1 6-3). During the match Berrettini scored 139 points vs Norrie’s 113. Matteo was quite aggressive to blast 68 winners.
About the serving games, Berrettini overpowered his opponent with 32 aces and he committed only 7 double faults. Matteo Berrettini conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 5 break points. Furthermore, Berrettini put 70% of his first serves in, winning 85% (68/80) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (16/34) on the 2nd serve. Berrettini broke Norrie 5 times after converting 36% of his break points (5/14).
Berrettini has an overall 1-1 win-loss record in 2025, 1-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2022. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Rune | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 48 | 39 |
| Pts | 142-131 | 139-113 |
| Total Points | 273 | 252 |
| Winners | 62 | 68 |
| %Winners | 44% | 49% |
Both Rune and Berrettini played 1 match. Both players lost a set in the event. Holger Rune lost 2 sets, while Matteo Berrettini dropped 1 set. Rune has played 1 set more than Berrettini (5 vs 4). Therefore, Rune played 9 games more than Berrettini. Holger scored 62 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Matteo recorded 68 winners (49%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Rune | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 32 |
| Avg per match | 10 | 32 |
| 1st in | 86/131 | 80/114 |
| %1st in | 66% | 70% |
| 1st pts | 62/86 | 68/80 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 85% |
| 2nd pts | 31/45 | 16/34 |
| %2nd pts | 69% | 47% |
Rune recorded 10 aces . Berrettini managed to score 32 aces . Rune won 72% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 69% of the points. On the other side, Berrettini won 85% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 47% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Rune | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 5 |
| Converted | 4/10 | 5/14 |
| % Converted | 40% | 36% |
| Conceded | 6 | 5 |
| Saved | 3 | 5 |
| % Saved | 50% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 |
Rune broke his opponent 4 times with a 40% conversion rate. The Dane conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Berrettini broke his opponent 5 times with a 36% conversion rate. Berrettini was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 5 break points.
| Rune | |||
| R1 Zhang |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 6-4 3-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 5 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 48 | 48 | |
| pts | 142-131 | 142-131 | |
| Total points | 273 | 273 | |
| Winners | 62 | 62 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 44% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 10 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 86/131 | 86/131 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 62/86 | 62/86 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 31/45 | 31/45 | |
| % 2nd pts | 69% | 69% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 4/10 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 6 | |
| Saved | 3/6 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
| Berrettini | |||
| R1 Norrie |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-74 6-4 6-1 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 39 | 39 | |
| pts | 139-113 | 139-113 | |
| Total points | 252 | 252 | |
| Winners | 68 | 68 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 49% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 32 | 32 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 80/114 | 80/114 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 68/80 | 68/80 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 85% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/34 | 16/34 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 47% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/14 | 5/14 | |
| Converted % | 36% | 36% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | |
| Saved | 5/5 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWLLLW
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