Karolina Muchova and Naomi Osaka will face off in the 2nd round of the Australian Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 1:00 pm on Kia Arena. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Karolina Muchova who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Karolina Muchova is the pick to win this match.
Karolina Muchova -> 1.49
Naomi Osaka -> 2.62
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Prediction and head to head Karolina Muchova vs. Naomi Osaka
This will be the 4th time that Karolina Muchova and Naomi Osaka play each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Muchova (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Muchova won 6-3 7-6(5) in the 2nd round in at the U.S. Open back in 2024.
Highlights Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka – U.S. Open 29-August-2024
Karolina Muchova
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 3-2 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 21-7 | 15-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
2023 | 38-13 | 28-9 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
2022 | 11-12 | 3-2 | 3-3 | 5-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
2021 | 19-9 | 10-4 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 20, Karolina reached the 2nd round after beating Nadia Podoroska 6-1 6-1.
In the 1st round, Muchova had a good straight sets win against Podoroska (6-1 6-1). During the match, Muchova scored 61 points vs Podoroska’s 35. Muchova was exceptionally aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Regarding the service games, Muchova managed to score 7 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Karolina Muchova conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 3 break points. Furthermore, Muchova put 58% of her first serves in, winning 86% (24/28) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (9/20) on the 2nd serve. Muchova broke Podoroska 5 times after converting 83% of her break points (5/6).
Muchova has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 68% of her matches (229-110). 3-2 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Muchova has a compiled 115-47 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Muchova’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Australia.
Karolina has an overall 3-2 win-loss record in 2025, 3-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Naomi Osaka
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 5-1 | 5-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 22-18 | 13-10 | 5-5 | 1-0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
2023 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2022 | 14-9 | 13-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2021 | 18-6 | 16-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 51, Osaka got to the 2nd round after beating Caroline Garcia 6-3 3-6 6-3.
In the 1st round, Osaka defeated Garcia (6-3 3-6 6-3). During the match Osaka scored 87 points vs Garcia’s 77. The Japanese was quite aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Talking about serving, Osaka made 7 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Naomi Osaka was very efficient on serve to win 78% (32/41) of her 1st serve and 53% (21/40) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve twice. The Japanese broke Garcia 4 times after converting 67% of her break points (4/6).
The Japanese’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Auckland.
Osaka has an overall 5-1 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, she won this tournament twice in 2019 and 2021. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
Points | Muchova | Osaka |
---|---|---|
Match played | 1 | 1 |
Tot Set | 2 | 3 |
Tot Games | 14 | 27 |
Pts | 61-35 | 87-77 |
Total Points | 96 | 164 |
Winners | 24 | 32 |
%Winners | 39% | 37% |
Both Muchova and Osaka played 1 match. At the moment, Naomi Osaka lost 1 set while Karolina Muchova hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Muchova has played 1 set(s) less than Osaka (2 vs 3). Therefore, Muchova played 13 games less than Osaka. The Czech scored 24 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, The Japanese blasted 32 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
Serve | Muchova | Osaka |
---|---|---|
Aces | 7 | 7 |
Avg per match | 7 | 7 |
1st in | 28/48 | 41/81 |
%1st in | 58% | 51% |
1st pts | 24/28 | 32/41 |
%1st pts | 86% | 78% |
2nd pts | 9/20 | 21/40 |
%2nd pts | 45% | 53% |
Muchova bagged 7 aces . Osaka managed to score 7 aces . Muchova won 86% points behind her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Osaka won 78% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
Breaks | Muchova | Osaka |
---|---|---|
Won | 5 | 4 |
Converted | 5/6 | 4/6 |
% Converted | 83% | 67% |
Conceded | 3 | 6 |
Saved | 3 | 4 |
% Saved | 100% | 67% |
Times Broken | 0 | 2 |
Karolina broke her opponent 5 times with a 83% conversion rate. The Czech had a solid display on her serve as she has never lost a single service game after saving 3 break points. Osaka broke her opponent 4 times with a 67% conversion rate. Naomi conceded her serve twice and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded.
Muchova | |||
R1 Podoroska |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-1 6-1 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
Tot Games | 14 | 14 | |
pts | 61-35 | 61-35 | |
Total points | 96 | 96 | |
Winners | 24 | 24 | |
%Winners | 39% | 39% | |
SERVE | |||
Aces | 7 | 7 | |
Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
1st in | 28/48 | 28/48 | |
% 1st in | 58% | 58% | |
1st pts | 24/28 | 24/28 | |
% 1st pts | 86% | 86% | |
2nd pts | 9/20 | 9/20 | |
% 2nd pts | 45% | 45% | |
Breaks | |||
Won | 5 | 5 | |
Converted | 5/6 | 5/6 | |
Converted % | 83% | 83% | |
Conceded | 3 | 3 | |
Saved | 3/3 | 3 | |
Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
Times Broken | 0 | 0 |
Osaka | |||
R1 Garcia |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-3 3-6 6-3 | ||
Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
Tot Games | 27 | 27 | |
pts | 87-77 | 87-77 | |
Total points | 164 | 164 | |
Winners | 32 | 32 | |
%Winners | 37% | 37% | |
SERVE | |||
Aces | 7 | 7 | |
Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
1st in | 41/81 | 41/81 | |
% 1st in | 51% | 51% | |
1st pts | 32/41 | 32/41 | |
% 1st pts | 78% | 78% | |
2nd pts | 21/40 | 21/40 | |
% 2nd pts | 53% | 53% | |
Breaks | |||
Won | 4 | 4 | |
Converted | 4/6 | 4/6 | |
Converted % | 67% | 67% | |
Conceded | 6 | 6 | |
Saved | 4/6 | 4 | |
Saved % | 67% | 67% | |
Times Broken | 2 | 2 |
Head 2 Head
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