Tommy Paul and Kei Nishikori will fight against each other in the 2^nd round of the Australian Open for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 4:00 pm on 1573 Arena. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Tommy Paul who should win in 5 sets.

As per the initial odds, Tommy Paul is the pick to win this match.
Tommy Paul -> 1.5
Kei Nishikori -> 2.59

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Prediction and head to head Tommy Paul vs. Kei Nishikori

This will be the 2^nd time that Tommy Paul and Kei Nishikori face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Nishikori (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Nishikori won 3-6 7-6(8) 6-4 in the quarter in Washington back in 2017.

Tommy Paul

Ranked no. 11 (career-high), Tommy got to the 2^nd round after beating Christopher O Connell 6-2 3-6 6-1 6-7(5) 7-5.

In the 1^st round, Paul had a tough win against O Connell to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (6-2 3-6 6-1 6-7⁵ 7-5). During the match, Paul scored 175 points vs O Connell’s 152. The American was quite aggressive to blast 73 winners.

Regarding the service games, Paul recorded 15 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Tommy Paul lost the serve twice and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Paul put 61% of his first serves in, winning 80% (73/91) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (29/58) on the 2nd serve. Tommy broke O Connell 6 times after converting 30% of his break points (6/20).

Paul has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 63% of his matches (348-202). 3-1 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Paul has an aggregate 180-104 record in the last years on hard.

Paul’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in Adelaide.

Tommy has an aggregate 3-1 win-loss record in 2025, 3-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Kei Nishikori

Ranked no. 76, the Japanese got to the 2^nd round after beating Thiago Moura Monteiro 4-6 6-7(4) 7-5 6-2 6-3.

In the 1^st round, Nishikori had a tough win against Moura Monteiro to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (4-6 6-7⁴ 7-5 6-2 6-3). During the match Nishikori scored 162 points vs Moura Monteiro’s 147. The Japanese was exceptionally aggressive to blast 82 winners.

About the serving games, Nishikori scored 17 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Kei Nishikori was pretty effective on serve to win 81% (82/101) of his 1st serve and 56% (22/39) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Japanese broke Moura Monteiro 5 times after converting 26% of his break points (5/19).

Nishikori’s best result of the season was reaching the final in Hong Kong.

Kei has a compiled 5-1 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2012, 2015, 2016 and 2019. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Paul	Nishikori
Match played	1	1
Tot Set	5	5
Tot Games	49	52
Pts	175-152	162-147
Total Points	327	309
Winners	73	82
%Winners	42%	51%

Both Paul and Nishikori played 1 match. Both players lost a set in the event. Tommy Paul conceded 2 sets, while Kei Nishikori surrendered 2 sets. Talking about their workload, Paul and Nishikori have played the same amount of sets 5. However, Paul played 3 games less than Nishikori. Paul scored 73 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Japanese bagged 82 winners (51%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Paul	Nishikori
Aces	15	17
Avg per match	15	17
1st in	91/149	101/140
%1st in	61%	72%
1st pts	73/91	82/101
%1st pts	80%	81%
2nd pts	29/58	22/39
%2nd pts	50%	56%

Paul recorded 15 aces . Nishikori recorded 17 aces . Paul won 80% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Nishikori won 81% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Paul	Nishikori
Won	6	5
Converted	6/20	5/19
% Converted	30%	26%
Conceded	8	7
Saved	6	6
% Saved	75%	86%
Times Broken	2	1

Tommy broke his opponent 6 times with a 30% conversion rate. Tommy conceded his serve twice and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. Kei broke his opponent 5 times with a 26% conversion rate. The Japanese conceded his serve once and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded.

Paul
	R1 O	Total
Score	6-2 3-6 6-1 6-75 7-5
Tot Set	5	5
Tot Games	49	49
pts	175-152	175-152
Total points	327	327
Winners	73	73
%Winners	42%	42%
SERVE
Aces	15	15
Double Faults	3	3
1st in	91/149	91/149
% 1st in	61%	61%
1st pts	73/91	73/91
% 1st pts	80%	80%
2nd pts	29/58	29/58
% 2nd pts	50%	50%
Breaks
Won	6	6
Converted	6/20	6/20
Converted %	30%	30%
Conceded	8	8
Saved	6/8	6
Saved %	75%	75%
Times Broken	2	2

Nishikori
	R1 Moura Monteiro	Total
Score	4-6 6-74 7-5 6-2 6-3
Tot Set	5	5
Tot Games	52	52
pts	162-147	162-147
Total points	309	309
Winners	82	82
%Winners	51%	51%
SERVE
Aces	17	17
Double Faults	3	3
1st in	101/140	101/140
% 1st in	72%	72%
1st pts	82/101	82/101
% 1st pts	81%	81%
2nd pts	22/39	22/39
% 2nd pts	56%	56%
Breaks
Won	5	5
Converted	5/19	5/19
Converted %	26%	26%
Conceded	7	7
Saved	6/7	6
Saved %	86%	86%
Times Broken	1	1

Tennis Scores – Australian Open

• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Alexander BublikBublik (7-6¹ 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-7⁴ 6-4 6-1 6-3) – See score progression
• Learner TienTien – Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli (4-6 7-6³ 6-3 5-7 6-4) – See score progression
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (7-6⁵ 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Taylor FritzFritz – Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby (6-2 6-0 6-3) – See score progression
• Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (7-5 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Cristian GarinGarin – Borna CoricCoric (7-5 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
• Gabriel DialloDiallo – Luca NardiNardi (6-7¹ 7-6³ 5-7 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
• Holger RuneRune – Zhizhen ZhangZhang (4-6 6-3 6-4 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic – Dusan LajovicLajovic (7-5 3-6 6-3 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (7-6² 6-3 4-6 6-7⁴ 6-3) – See score progression
• Benjamin BonziBonzi – David GoffinGoffin (6-1 6-2 7-6⁷) – See score progression
• Fabian MarozsanMarozsan – Thiago Seyboth WildSeyboth Wild (6-3 6-7⁵ 7-5 5-7 7-5) – See score progression
• Jordan ThompsonThompson – Dominik KoepferKoepfer (7-6³ 6-4 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Tommy PaulPaul – Christopher O ConnellO Connell (6-2 3-6 6-1 6-7⁵ 7-5) – See score progression
• Nuno Borges
  Borges – Alexandre MullerMuller (6-7² 6-3 6-2 7-5) – See score progression
• Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Juncheng ShangShang (7-6¹ 5-2 ret.) – See score progression
• Francesco PassaroPassaro – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (7-5 2-1 ret.) – See score progression
• Aleksandar VukicVukic – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (6-7³ 6-0 3-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Jack DraperDraper – Mariano NavoneNavone (4-6 6-3 3-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Nicolas JarryJarry (7-6² 7-6⁵ 6-1) – See score progression
• Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis – Roman SafiullinSafiullin (3-6 6-3 6-3 7-6⁵) – See score progression
• James DuckworthDuckworth – Dominic StrickerStricker (6-2 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Sebastian KordaKorda – Lukas KleinKlein (6-3 0-6 6-3 7-6⁶) – See score progression
• Tristan SchoolkateSchoolkate – Taro DanielDaniel (6-7⁶ 7-6⁴ 6-1 6-4) – See score progression
• Alex MichelsenMichelsen – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (7-5 6-3 2-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Jacob FearnleyFearnley – Nick KyrgiosKyrgios (7-6³ 6-3 7-6¹) – See score progression
• Jaime FariaFaria – Pavel KotovKotov (6-1 6-1 7-5) – See score progression
• Jakub MensikMensik – Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili (6-1 6-7³ 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• James McCabeMcCabe – Martin LandaluceLandaluce (6-4 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko (6-1 7-5 6-1) – See score progression
• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Nishesh BasavareddyBasavareddy (4-6 6-3 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (6-3 6-0 4-6 6-1) – See score progression
• Arthur CazauxCazaux – Sebastian BaezBaez (6-3 5-7 3-6 6-0 6-3) – See score progression
• Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka – Aziz DougazDougaz (3-6 6-4 7-6³ 6-3) – See score progression
• Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (1-6 6-2 6-3 7-6¹) – See score progression
• Hady HabibHabib – Bu YunchaoketeYunchaokete (7-6⁴ 6-4 7-6⁶) – See score progression
• Quentin HalysHalys – Adam WaltonWalton (4-6 4-6 6-4 7-6⁴ 7-5) – See score progression
• Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero – Luciano DarderiDarderi (6-3 4-1 ret.) – See score progression
• Kei NishikoriNishikori – Thiago Moura MonteiroMoura Monteiro (4-6 6-7⁴ 7-5 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Li TuTu (6-1 3-6 6-3 7-6¹) – See score progression
• Reilly OpelkaOpelka – Gauthier OnclinOnclin (3-6 7-6⁴ 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Casper RuudRuud – Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar (6-3 1-6 7-5 2-6 6-1) – See score progression
• Hugo GastonGaston – Omar JasikaJasika (6-2 3-6 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Arthur FilsFils – Otto VirtanenVirtanen (3-6 7-6⁴ 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Lucas PouillePouille (6-4 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Ugo HumbertHumbert – Matteo GiganteGigante (7-6⁵ 7-5 6-4) – See score progression
• Tomas MachacMachac – Sumit NagalNagal (6-3 6-1 7-5) – See score progression
• Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (7-5 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic – Dusan LajovicLajovic (7-5 3-6 6-3 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-7(4) 6-4 6-1 6-3) – See score progression
• Holger RuneRune – Zhizhen ZhangZhang (4-6 6-3 6-4 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Gabriel DialloDiallo – Luca NardiNardi (6-7(1) 7-6(3) 5-7 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (7-6(5) 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Alexander BublikBublik (7-6(1) 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby (6-2 6-0 6-3) – See score progression
• Cristian GarinGarin – Borna CoricCoric (7-5 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
• Learner TienTien – Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli (4-6 7-6(3) 6-3 5-7 6-4) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Gael MonfilsMonfils – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Kei NishikoriNishikori – Tommy PaulPaul (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Marcos GironGiron – Yannick HanfmannHanfmann (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena – James DuckworthDuckworth (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jordan ThompsonThompson – Nuno BorgesBorges (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Quentin HalysHalys – (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero – Alexander ZverevZverev (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Reilly OpelkaOpelka – Tomas MachacMachac (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Aleksandar VukicVukic – Sebastian KordaKorda (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Benjamin BonziBonzi – Francesco PassaroPassaro (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Andrey RublevRublev – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (1-3) – H2H and prediction
• Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Christian GarinGarin (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Lorenzo SonegoSonego – Stan WawrinkaWawrinka (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Casper RuudRuud – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Corentin MoutetMoutet (1-3) – H2H and prediction
• Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (0-4) – H2H and prediction
• Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry – Flavio CobolliCobolli (3-0) – H2H and prediction
• Ugo HumbertHumbert – Hady HabibHabib (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Tristan SchoolkateSchoolkate (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Fabian MarozsanMarozsan – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Kasidit SamrejSamrej – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Tristan BoyerBoyer – Federico CoriaCoria (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Rinky HijikataHijikata – Mitchell KruegerKrueger (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Hugo GastonGaston (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Francisco ComesanaComesana – Daniel AltmaierAltmaier (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jack DraperDraper – Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Facundo Diaz AcostaDiaz Acosta – Zizou BergsBergs (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Gabriel DialloDiallo – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (0-2) – H2H and prediction