Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys will play each other in the final of the Adelaide International for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 4:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.8
Madison Keys -> 2.01
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Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Madison Keys
This will be the 3rd time that Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys clash against each other. The head to head is 1-1 for Pegula and Keys (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Keys won 6-1 6-3 in the 4th round in at the U.S. Open back in 2023.
Highlights Madison Keys vs Jessica Pegula – U.S. Open 04-September-2023
Jessica Pegula
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 39-16 | 29-9 | 4-2 | 0-2 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 59-18 | 45-12 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-21 | 28-15 | 11-4 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-19 | 29-12 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 7, the American got to the final after defeating Unknown Player bye, Maria Sakkari 6-4 6-1, Ashlyn Krueger 6-4 2-0 ret. and Yulia Putintseva 7-6(4) 6-3.
In the semifinal, The American had a good straight sets win against Putintseva (7-64 6-3). During the match, Pegula scored 70 points vs Putintseva’s 64. The American was very aggressive to blast 37 winners.
Regarding the service games, Pegula managed to score 4 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Jessica Pegula was quite effective on serve to win 73% (37/51) of her 1st serve and 57% (13/23) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Jessica broke Putintseva twice after converting 33% of her break points (2/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Jessica hasn’t dropped yet a set in this tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
Pegula has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (307-157). 3-0 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Pegula has an aggregate 207-90 record in the last years on hard.
The American’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Adelaide.
Pegula has an overall 3-0 win-loss record in 2025, 3-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Adelaide
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6-1 | 6-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 20, Madison reached the final after defeating Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-2 6-1, Jelena Ostapenko 3-6 6-4 6-3, Daria Kasatkina 6-1 6-3 and Liudmila Samsonova 5-7 7-5 3-0 ret..
In the semifinal against Samsonova, the American had a free pass after Samsonova retired on a 5-7 7-5 3-0 . scoreline.
The American’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Adelaide.
Keys has an aggregate 6-1 win-loss record in 2025, 6-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Adelaide
Previously, she won this tournament once in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Pegula | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 51 | 86 |
| Pts | 174-141 | 312-240 |
| Total Points | 315 | 552 |
| Winners | 76 | 119 |
| %Winners | 44% | 38% |
Pegula played 3 matches while Keys competed in 4 matches. At the moment, Madison Keys surrendered 2 sets while Jessica Pegula hasn’t conceded a set so far. Pegula has played 4 set(s) less than Keys (7 vs 11). Therefore, Pegula played 35 games less than Keys. The American scored 76 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Madison managed to score 119 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Pegula | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 32 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 8 |
| 1st in | 106/160 | 167/269 |
| %1st in | 66% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 76/106 | 119/167 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 71% |
| 2nd pts | 29/54 | 56/102 |
| %2nd pts | 54% | 55% |
Pegula struck 12 aces (4 per match). Keys blasted 32 aces (8 per match). Pegula won 72% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 71% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Pegula | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 19 |
| Converted | 10/21 | 19/35 |
| % Converted | 48% | 54% |
| Conceded | 8 | 25 |
| Saved | 5 | 17 |
| % Saved | 63% | 68% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 8 |
The American broke her opponents 10 times with a 48% conversion rate. Jessica surrendered her serve 3 times and she saved 63% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponents 19 times with a 54% conversion rate. Keys conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 68% of the break points that she conceded.
| Pegula | |||||
| R2 Sakkari |
1/4 Krueger |
1/2 Putintseva |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-1 | 6-4 2-0 ret. | 7-64 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 12 | 22 | 51 | |
| pts | 60-45 | 44-32 | 70-64 | 174-141 | |
| Total points | 105 | 76 | 134 | 315 | |
| Winners | 17 | 22 | 37 | 76 | |
| %Winners | 28% | 50% | 53% | 44% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 5 | 3 | 4 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 28/46 | 27/40 | 51/74 | 106/160 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 68% | 69% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 17/28 | 22/27 | 37/51 | 76/106 | |
| % 1st pts | 61% | 81% | 73% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/18 | 6/13 | 13/23 | 29/54 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 46% | 57% | 54% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Converted | 6/13 | 2/2 | 2/6 | 10/21 | |
| Converted % | 46% | 100% | 33% | 48% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 2/2 | 1/2 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 100% | 50% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Keys | ||||||
| R1 Haddad Maia |
R2 Ostapenko |
1/4 Kasatkina |
1/2 Samsonova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-1 | 3-6 6-4 6-3 | 6-1 6-3 | 5-7 7-5 3-0 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 28 | 16 | 27 | 86 | |
| pts | 59-34 | 104-91 | 61-36 | 88-79 | 312-240 | |
| Total points | 93 | 195 | 97 | 167 | 552 | |
| Winners | 27 | 32 | 27 | 33 | 119 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 31% | 44% | 38% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 32 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 30/54 | 54/94 | 35/52 | 48/69 | 167/269 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 57% | 67% | 70% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 27/30 | 32/54 | 27/35 | 33/48 | 119/167 | |
| % 1st pts | 90% | 59% | 77% | 69% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/24 | 21/40 | 9/17 | 16/21 | 56/102 | |
| % 2nd pts | 42% | 53% | 53% | 76% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 19 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 7/14 | 4/5 | 4/8 | 19/35 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | 80% | 50% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 25 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 11/17 | 2/2 | 3/5 | 17 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 65% | 100% | 60% | 108% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | |
Head 2 Head
WWW
WWWWLWW Tennis Scores in Adelaide
- Hanyu Guo/Alexandra PanovaGuo/Alexandra Panova – Beatriz Haddad Maia/Laura SiegemundHaddad Maia/Laura Siegemund (7-5 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Orlando LuzLuz – Rafael MatosMatos (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Madison KeysKeys (1-1) – H2H and prediction
