Madison Keys and Liudmila Samsonova will face off in the semifinal of the Adelaide International for the 6^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 2:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.5
Liudmila Samsonova -> 2.59

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Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Liudmila Samsonova

This will be the 6^th time that Madison Keys and Liudmila Samsonova square off. The head to head is 4-1 for Keys (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Keys won 6-1 6-3 in the semifinal in Strasbourg back in 2024.

Highlights Madison Keys vs Liudmila Samsonova – Strasbourg 24-May-2024

Madison Keys

Ranked no. 20, Keys reached the semifinal after beating Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-2 6-1, Jelena Ostapenko 3-6 6-4 6-3 and Daria Kasatkina 6-1 6-3.

In the quarter, The American had a good straight sets win against Kasatkina (6-1 6-3). During the match, Keys scored 61 points vs Kasatkina’s 36. Madison was quite aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Regarding the service games, Keys bagged 11 aces and she was quite consistent in conceding no double faults. Madison Keys was quite efficient on serve to win 77% (27/35) of her 1st serve and 53% (9/17) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The American broke Kasatkina 4 times after converting 80% of her break points (4/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Keys has conceded 1 set in this event to conquer 58% of the points she played.

Keys has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 65% of her matches (232-124). 5-1 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Keys has an overall 138-74 record in the last years on hard.

Madison has a compiled 5-1 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Adelaide

Liudmila Samsonova

Ranked no. 26, Samsonova got to the semifinal after beating Marie Bouzkova 1-6 6-4 6-1, Belinda Bencic 7-6(3) 4-6 6-4 and Emma Navarro 6-4 6-4.

In the quarter, Samsonova had a good straight sets win against Navarro (6-4 6-4). During the match Samsonova scored 63 points vs Navarro’s 48. Samsonova was exceptionally aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Talking about serving, Samsonova blasted 2 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Liudmila Samsonova lost the serve 3 times and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Samsonova put 61% of her first serves in, winning 82% (27/33) of the points behind her 1st serve and 33% (7/21) on the 2nd serve. Samsonova broke Navarro 5 times after converting 71% of her break points (5/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Ludmilla has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.

Samsonova has an aggregate 3-1 win-loss record in 2025, 3-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Adelaide

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2022. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Keys	Samsonova
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	7	8
Tot Games	59	77
Pts	224-161	249-229
Total Points	385	478
Winners	86	98
%Winners	38%	39%

Both Keys and Samsonova played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Madison Keys lost 1 set, while Liudmila Samsonova lost 2 sets. Keys has played 1 set(s) less than Samsonova (7 vs 8). Therefore, Keys played 18 games less than Samsonova. The American scored 86 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Samsonova recorded 98 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Keys	Samsonova
Aces	20	14
Avg per match	6.7	4.7
1st in	119/200	129/233
%1st in	60%	55%
1st pts	86/119	98/129
%1st pts	72%	76%
2nd pts	40/81	42/104
%2nd pts	49%	40%

Keys managed to score 20 aces (6.7 per match). Samsonova fired 14 aces (4.7 per match). Keys won 72% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points. On the other side, Samsonova won 76% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 40% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Keys	Samsonova
Won	15	14
Converted	15/27	14/32
% Converted	56%	44%
Conceded	20	29
Saved	14	18
% Saved	70%	62%
Times Broken	6	11

Madison broke her opponents 15 times with a 56% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 70% of the break points that she conceded. Ludmilla broke her opponents 14 times with a 44% conversion rate. Samsonova conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 62% of the break points that she conceded.

Keys
	R1 Haddad Maia	R2 Ostapenko	1/4 Kasatkina	Total
Score	6-2 6-1	3-6 6-4 6-3	6-1 6-3
Tot Set	2	3	2	7
Tot Games	15	28	16	59
pts	59-34	104-91	61-36	224-161
Total points	93	195	97	385
Winners	27	32	27	86
%Winners	46%	31%	44%	38%
SERVE
Aces	1	8	11	20
Double Faults	3	1	0	4
1st in	30/54	54/94	35/52	119/200
% 1st in	56%	57%	67%	60%
1st pts	27/30	32/54	27/35	86/119
% 1st pts	90%	59%	77%	72%
2nd pts	10/24	21/40	9/17	40/81
% 2nd pts	42%	53%	53%	49%
Breaks
Won	4	7	4	15
Converted	4/8	7/14	4/5	15/27
Converted %	50%	50%	80%	56%
Conceded	1	17	2	20
Saved	1/1	11/17	2/2	14
Saved %	100%	65%	100%	88%
Times Broken	0	6	0	6

Samsonova
	R1 Bouzkova	R2 Bencic	1/4 Navarro	Total
Score	1-6 6-4 6-1	7-63 4-6 6-4	6-4 6-4
Tot Set	3	3	2	8
Tot Games	24	33	20	77
pts	79-78	107-103	63-48	249-229
Total points	157	210	111	478
Winners	23	48	27	98
%Winners	29%	45%	43%	39%
SERVE
Aces	4	8	2	14
Double Faults	8	10	4	22
1st in	33/72	63/107	33/54	129/233
% 1st in	46%	59%	61%	55%
1st pts	23/33	48/63	27/33	98/129
% 1st pts	70%	76%	82%	76%
2nd pts	17/39	18/44	7/21	42/104
% 2nd pts	44%	41%	33%	40%
Breaks
Won	5	4	5	14
Converted	5/15	4/10	5/7	14/32
Converted %	33%	40%	71%	44%
Conceded	10	14	5	29
Saved	6/10	10/14	2/5	18
Saved %	60%	71%	40%	57%
Times Broken	4	4	3	11

Tennis Scores in Adelaide

• Beatriz Haddad Maia/Laura SiegemundHaddad Maia/Laura Siegemund – Anna Danilina/Irina KhromachevaDanilina/Irina Khromacheva (6-2 5-7 10-7) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Hanyu Guo/Alexandra PanovaGuo/Alexandra Panova – Ellen Perez/Katerina SiniakovaPerez/Katerina Siniakova (4-6 6-3 11-9) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Orlando LuzLuz – Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues AlvesMeligeni Rodrigues Alves (4-6 6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Rafael MatosMatos – Jordi Samper-MontanaSamper-Montana (6-1 2-0 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jessica PegulaPegula – Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Madison KeysKeys – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (4-1) – H2H and prediction