Daria Kasatkina and Madison Keys will fight against each other in the quarter of the Adelaide International for the 12^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 5:30 pm on SHOW COURT 1. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.56
Daria Kasatkina -> 2.43

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Daria Kasatkina vs. Madison Keys

This will be the 12^th time that Daria Kasatkina and Madison Keys fight against each other. The head to head is 9-2 for Keys (see full H2H stats), 8-1 on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Keys won 6-2 7-6(13) in the final in Eastbourne back in 2023.

Highlights Madison Keys vs Daria Kasatkina – Eastbourne 01-July-2023

Daria Kasatkina

Ranked no. 9, Darya got to the quarter after defeating Olivia Gadecki 6-2 6-3 and Emerson Jones 7-5 6-3.

In the 2^nd round, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Jones (7-5 6-3). During the match, Kasatkina scored 74 points vs Jones’s 66. Darya was quite aggressive to blast 28 winners.

Talking about the service games, Kasatkina blasted 4 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Daria Kasatkina lost the serve 3 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Kasatkina put 67% of her first serves in, winning 58% (28/48) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (12/24) on the 2nd serve. Darya broke Jones 6 times after converting 60% of her break points (6/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Darya hasn’t lost yet a set in this tournament to conquer 55% of the points she played.

Kasatkina has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 61% of her matches (302-193). 3-1 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Kasatkina has a compiled 157-117 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Kasatkina has a compiled 3-1 win-loss record in 2025, 3-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Adelaide

Madison Keys

Ranked no. 20, Madison reached the quarter after beating Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-2 6-1 and Jelena Ostapenko 3-6 6-4 6-3.

In the 2^nd round against Ostapenko, Keys recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-4 6-3). During the match Keys scored 104 points vs Ostapenko’s 91. Madison was extremely aggressive to blast 32 winners.

Talking about serving, Keys blasted 8 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Madison Keys lost the serve 6 times and she saved 11 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 57% of her first serves in, winning 59% (32/54) of the points behind her 1st serve and 53% (21/40) on the 2nd serve. Madison broke Ostapenko 7 times after converting 50% of her break points (7/14).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Madison has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.

Keys has an aggregate 4-1 win-loss record in 2025, 4-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Adelaide

Previously, she won this tournament once in 2022. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Kasatkina	Keys
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	4	5
Tot Games	38	43
Pts	145-119	163-125
Total Points	264	288
Winners	60	59
%Winners	41%	36%

Both Kasatkina and Keys played 2 matches. At the moment, Madison Keys conceded 1 set while Daria Kasatkina hasn’t dropped a set so far. Kasatkina has played 1 set(s) less than Keys (4 vs 5). Therefore, Kasatkina played 5 games less than Keys. Kasatkina scored 60 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Madison blasted 59 winners (36%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Kasatkina	Keys
Aces	8	9
Avg per match	4	4.5
1st in	94/129	84/148
%1st in	73%	57%
1st pts	60/94	59/84
%1st pts	64%	70%
2nd pts	17/35	31/64
%2nd pts	49%	48%

Kasatkina scored 8 aces (4 per match). Keys made 9 aces (4.5 per match). Kasatkina won 64% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 70% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 48% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Kasatkina	Keys
Won	11	11
Converted	11/18	11/22
% Converted	61%	50%
Conceded	14	18
Saved	10	12
% Saved	71%	67%
Times Broken	4	6

The Russian broke her opponents 11 times with a 61% conversion rate. Darya surrendered her serve 4 times and she saved 71% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponents 11 times with a 50% conversion rate. Keys conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded.

Kasatkina
	R1 Gadecki	R2 Jones	Total
Score	6-2 6-3	7-5 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	17	21	38
pts	71-53	74-66	145-119
Total points	124	140	264
Winners	32	28	60
%Winners	45%	38%	41%
SERVE
Aces	4	4	8
Double Faults	2	3	5
1st in	46/57	48/72	94/129
% 1st in	81%	67%	73%
1st pts	32/46	28/48	60/94
% 1st pts	70%	58%	64%
2nd pts	5/11	12/24	17/35
% 2nd pts	45%	50%	49%
Breaks
Won	5	6	11
Converted	5/8	6/10	11/18
Converted %	63%	60%	61%
Conceded	6	8	14
Saved	5/6	5/8	10
Saved %	83%	63%	73%
Times Broken	1	3	4

Keys
	R1 Haddad Maia	R2 Ostapenko	Total
Score	6-2 6-1	3-6 6-4 6-3
Tot Set	2	3	5
Tot Games	15	28	43
pts	59-34	104-91	163-125
Total points	93	195	288
Winners	27	32	59
%Winners	46%	31%	36%
SERVE
Aces	1	8	9
Double Faults	3	1	4
1st in	30/54	54/94	84/148
% 1st in	56%	57%	57%
1st pts	27/30	32/54	59/84
% 1st pts	90%	59%	70%
2nd pts	10/24	21/40	31/64
% 2nd pts	42%	53%	48%
Breaks
Won	4	7	11
Converted	4/8	7/14	11/22
Converted %	50%	50%	50%
Conceded	1	17	18
Saved	1/1	11/17	12
Saved %	100%	65%	83%
Times Broken	0	6	6

Tennis Scores in Adelaide

• Ellen Perez/Katerina SiniakovaPerez/Katerina Siniakova – Timea Babos/Nicole MelicharBabos/Nicole Melichar (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Anna Danilina/Irina KhromachevaDanilina/Irina Khromacheva – Ashlyn Krueger/Jessica PegulaKrueger/Jessica Pegula (w/o) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Orlando LuzLuz – Nikolas Sanchez-IzquierdoSanchez-Izquierdo (6-2 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues AlvesMeligeni Rodrigues Alves – Oriol Roca BatallaRoca Batalla (6-7⁷ 7-5 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jordi Samper-MontanaSamper-Montana – Jaume Pla MalfeitoPla Malfeito (6-4 1-6 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Rafael MatosMatos – Facundo Diaz AcostaDiaz Acosta (7-6¹ 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jessica PegulaPegula – (3-0) – H2H and prediction
• Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Madison KeysKeys – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (9-2) – H2H and prediction
• Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova – Emma NavarroNavarro (0-0) – H2H and prediction