Jelena Ostapenko and Madison Keys will face off in the 2nd round of the Adelaide International for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 5:30 pm on SHOW COURT 1. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.33
Jelena Ostapenko -> 3.32
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Â
Prediction and head to head Jelena Ostapenko vs. Madison Keys
This will be the 6th time that Jelena Ostapenko and Madison Keys clash against each other. The head to head is 3-2 for Keys (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Ostapenko won 7-5 6-2 in the 1st round in Doha back in 2023.
Jelena Ostapenko
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 31-19 | 14-10 | 8-6 | 4-0 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-22 | 21-15 | 7-4 | 1-1 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-19 | 19-10 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-19 | 12-9 | 5-4 | 7-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 17, the Latvian got to the 2nd round after defeating Magdalena Frech 4-6 6-1 6-1.
In the 1st round against Frech, Ostapenko recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-1 6-1). During the match, Ostapenko scored 100 points vs Frech’s 78. Jelena was exceptionally aggressive to blast 34 winners.
Regarding the service games, Ostapenko struck 6 aces and she committed only 9 double faults. Jelena Ostapenko lost the serve twice and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Ostapenko put 46% of her first serves in, winning 77% (34/44) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (23/51) on the 2nd serve. Jelena broke Frech 6 times after converting 50% of her break points (6/12).
Ostapenko has positive win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 59% of her matches (268-189). 1-1 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Ostapenko has an aggregate 123-104 record in the last years on hard.
The Latvian has an aggregate 1-1 win-loss record in 2025, 1-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Adelaide
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 20, Madison got to the 2nd round after beating Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-2 6-1.
In the 1st round, Keys had a good straight sets win against Haddad Maia (6-2 6-1). During the match Keys scored 59 points vs Haddad Maia’s 34. Keys was pretty aggressive to blast 27 winners.
About the serving games, Keys scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 3 double faults. Madison Keys conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 1 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 56% of her first serves in, winning 90% (27/30) of the points behind her 1st serve and 42% (10/24) on the 2nd serve. Madison broke Haddad Maia 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).
Keys has a composed 3-1 win-loss record in 2025, 3-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Adelaide
Previously, she won this tournament once in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 24 | 15 |
| Pts | 100-78 | 59-34 |
| Total Points | 178 | 93 |
| Winners | 34 | 27 |
| %Winners | 34% | 46% |
Both Ostapenko and Keys played 1 match. At the moment, Jelena Ostapenko conceded 1 set while Madison Keys hasn’t conceded a set so far. Ostapenko has played 1 set more than Keys (3 vs 2). Therefore, Ostapenko played 9 games more than Keys. Jelena scored 34 winners (34% of the total points). On the other side, The American made 27 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 1 |
| Avg per match | 6 | 1 |
| 1st in | 44/95 | 30/54 |
| %1st in | 46% | 56% |
| 1st pts | 34/44 | 27/30 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 90% |
| 2nd pts | 23/51 | 10/24 |
| %2nd pts | 45% | 42% |
Ostapenko struck 6 aces . Keys made 1 ace . Ostapenko won 77% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 90% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 42% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ostapenko | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 4 |
| Converted | 6/12 | 4/8 |
| % Converted | 50% | 50% |
| Conceded | 8 | 1 |
| Saved | 6 | 1 |
| % Saved | 75% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 |
Ostapenko broke her opponent 6 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Latvian lost her serve twice and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponent 4 times with a 50% conversion rate. Keys was rock solid on her serve as she has never conceded a single service game after saving 1 break points.
| Ostapenko | |||
| R1 Frech |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-1 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 24 | 24 | |
| pts | 100-78 | 100-78 | |
| Total points | 178 | 178 | |
| Winners | 34 | 34 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 34% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 6 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 9 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 44/95 | 44/95 | |
| % 1st in | 46% | 46% | |
| 1st pts | 34/44 | 34/44 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 23/51 | 23/51 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 45% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 6 | 6 | |
| Converted | 6/12 | 6/12 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 8 | |
| Saved | 6/8 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Keys | |||
| R1 Haddad Maia |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 15 | |
| pts | 59-34 | 59-34 | |
| Total points | 93 | 93 | |
| Winners | 27 | 27 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 30/54 | 30/54 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 27/30 | 27/30 | |
| % 1st pts | 90% | 90% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/24 | 10/24 | |
| % 2nd pts | 42% | 42% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 4/8 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
WL
WLWW Tennis Scores in Adelaide
- Jordi Samper-MontanaSamper-Montana – Sergio Martos GornesMartos Gornes (7-5 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Oriol Roca BatallaRoca Batalla – Max Alcala GurriAlcala Gurri (6-0 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues AlvesMeligeni Rodrigues Alves – Michiel De KromDe Krom (6-3 7-65) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Orlando LuzLuz – Pol Martin TiffonMartin Tiffon (6-4 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Facundo Diaz AcostaDiaz Acosta – Federico ZeballosZeballos (6-4 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Rafael MatosMatos – Alex MartinezMartinez (6-4 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Nikolas Sanchez-IzquierdoSanchez-Izquierdo – Dan AddedAdded (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jaume Pla MalfeitoPla Malfeito – Michael GeertsGeerts (w/o) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Maria SakkariSakkari (5-5) – H2H and prediction
- Ons JabeurJabeur – Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Madison KeysKeys (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Belinda BencicBencic – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (1-4) – H2H and prediction
- Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Emma NavarroNavarro (1-0) – H2H and prediction
