Juncheng Shang and Kei Nishikori will face off in the semifinal of the Hong Kong Tennis Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 4:30 pm on CENTRE COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Kei Nishikori who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Kei Nishikori is the pick to win this match.
Kei Nishikori -> 1.78
Juncheng Shang -> 2.04
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Prediction and head to head Juncheng Shang vs. Kei Nishikori
This will be the 3rd time that Juncheng Shang and Kei Nishikori face off. The head to head is 1-1 for Shang and Nishikori (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they played, Shang won 6-4 6-4 in the 1st round in Chengdu back in 2024.
Highlights Juncheng Shang vs Kei Nishikori – Chengdu 19-September-2024
Juncheng Shang
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 42-27 | 25-10 | 8-7 | 2-6 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 31-23 | 21-14 | 3-3 | 0-2 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-24 | 17-8 | 15-10 | 7-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 18-5 | 6-3 | 12-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 50, Shang reached the semifinal after beating Chak Lam Coleman Wong 7-6(3) 6-4, Pedro Martinez Portero 6-3 6-1 and Fabian Marozsan 1-6 6-3 6-4.
In the quarter against Marozsan, Shang recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 6-3 6-4).During the match, Shang scored less points (4) than Marozsan. In fact, the world no. 50 won 77 points vs Marozsan’s. That means that Shang was more focused during the important points. The Chinese was exceptionally aggressive to blast 44 winners.
Talking about the service games, Shang scored 9 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Juncheng Shang lost the serve twice and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Shang put 74% of his first serves in, winning 77% (44/57) of the points behind his 1st serve and 30% (6/20) on the 2nd serve. Shang broke Marozsan twice after converting 25% of his break points (2/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Juncheng has dropped 1 set in this tournament to conquer 54% of the points he played.
Shang has a solid record in the last 5 years having won 63% of his matches (134-79). 3-0 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Shang has an overall72-35 record in the last 5 years on hard.
Juncheng has an overall 3-0 win-loss record in 2025, 3-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Hong Kong
Kei Nishikori
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4-1 | 4-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 20-11 | 7-5 | 5-3 | 8-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 10-3 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 26-17 | 15-9 | 7-4 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 106, Kei got to the semifinal after defeating Denis Shapovalov 6-2 6-3, Karen Khachanov 4-6 6-3 7-5 and Cameron Norrie 6-3 3-6 6-2.
In the quarter, The Japanese defeated Norrie (6-3 3-6 6-2). During the match Nishikori scored 82 points vs Norrie’s 72. Nishikori was very aggressive to blast 43 winners.
Talking about serving, Nishikori struck 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Kei Nishikori lost the serve once and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Nishikori put 73% of his first serves in, winning 78% (43/55) of the points behind his 1st serve and 45% (9/20) on the 2nd serve. The Japanese broke Norrie 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Nishikori has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Kei has an overall 3-0 win-loss record in 2025, 3-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Hong Kong
The Japanese has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Shang | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 65 | 74 |
| Pts | 213-183 | 237-199 |
| Total Points | 396 | 436 |
| Winners | 105 | 115 |
| %Winners | 49% | 49% |
Both Shang and Nishikori played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Juncheng Shang dropped 1 set, while Kei Nishikori conceded 2 sets. Shang has played 1 set(s) less than Nishikori (7 vs 8). Therefore, Shang played 9 games less than Nishikori. The Chinese scored 105 winners (49% of the total points). On the other side, Nishikori made 115 winners (49%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Shang | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 22 | 9 |
| Avg per match | 7.3 | 3 |
| 1st in | 130/190 | 152/215 |
| %1st in | 68% | 71% |
| 1st pts | 105/130 | 115/152 |
| %1st pts | 81% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 31/60 | 35/63 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 56% |
Shang managed to score 22 aces (7.3 per match). Nishikori struck 9 aces (3 per match). Shang won 81% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Nishikori won 76% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Shang | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 10 |
| Converted | 7/22 | 10/19 |
| % Converted | 32% | 53% |
| Conceded | 12 | 12 |
| Saved | 10 | 8 |
| % Saved | 83% | 67% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 4 |
Juncheng broke his opponents 7 times with a 32% conversion rate. The Chinese conceded his serve twice and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded. The Japanese broke his opponents 10 times with a 53% conversion rate. Nishikori conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.
| Shang | |||||
| R1 Lam Coleman Wong |
R2 Martinez Portero |
1/4 Marozsan |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-63 6-4 | 6-3 6-1 | 1-6 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 16 | 26 | 65 | |
| pts | 75-60 | 61-42 | 77-81 | 213-183 | |
| Total points | 135 | 103 | 158 | 396 | |
| Winners | 29 | 32 | 44 | 105 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 52% | 57% | 49% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 9 | 9 | 22 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 33/59 | 40/54 | 57/77 | 130/190 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 74% | 74% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 29/33 | 32/40 | 44/57 | 105/130 | |
| % 1st pts | 88% | 80% | 77% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/26 | 5/14 | 6/20 | 31/60 | |
| % 2nd pts | 77% | 36% | 30% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | |
| Converted | 1/7 | 4/7 | 2/8 | 7/22 | |
| Converted % | 14% | 57% | 25% | 32% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 6 | 6 | 12 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 6/6 | 4/6 | 10 | |
| Saved % | – | 100% | 67% | 56% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Nishikori | |||||
| R1 Shapovalov |
R2 Khachanov |
1/4 Norrie |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-3 | 4-6 6-3 7-5 | 6-3 3-6 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 31 | 26 | 74 | |
| pts | 60-42 | 95-85 | 82-72 | 237-199 | |
| Total points | 102 | 180 | 154 | 436 | |
| Winners | 29 | 43 | 43 | 115 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 45% | 52% | 49% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 35/50 | 62/90 | 55/75 | 152/215 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 69% | 73% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 29/35 | 43/62 | 43/55 | 115/152 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 69% | 78% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/15 | 17/28 | 9/20 | 35/63 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 61% | 45% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 4/7 | 3/5 | 10/19 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 57% | 60% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 8 | 2 | 12 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 5/8 | 1/2 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 63% | 50% | 71% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWW
LWWWW Tennis Scores in Hong Kong
- Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (2-6 7-64 7-5) – See score progression
- Alexandre MullerMuller – Arthur FilsFils (3-6 6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Juncheng ShangShang – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (1-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Kei NishikoriNishikori – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-3 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Sander Arends/Luke JohnsonArends/Luke Johnson – Santiago Gonzalez/Lucas MiedlerGonzalez/Lucas Miedler (7-62 7-5) – See score progression
- Karen Khachanov/Andrey RublevKhachanov/Andrey Rublev – Yuki Bhambri/Albano OlivettiBhambri/Albano Olivetti (6-4 7-65) – See score progression
- Juncheng ShangShang – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (1-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Kei NishikoriNishikori – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-3 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Alexandre MullerMuller – Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar (1-3) – H2H and prediction
