Gregoire Barrere and Aslan Karatsev will play each other in the final of the Nonthaburi 1 Challenger for the 4^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 1:00 pm on COURT B. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aslan Karatsev who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aslan Karatsev is the pick to win this match.
Aslan Karatsev -> 1.38
Gregoire Barrere -> 2.85

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Prediction and head to head Gregoire Barrere vs. Aslan Karatsev

This will be the 4^th time that Gregoire Barrere and Aslan Karatsev square off. The head to head is 2-1 for Barrere (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.

The last time that they competed against each other, Barrere won 6-3 6-4 in the quarter in the Lille Challenger back in 2019.

Gregoire Barrere

Ranked no. 162, Barrere got to the final after defeating Federico Arnaboldi 6-4 7-6(3), Dalibor Svrcina 7-5 7-6(5), Khumoun Sultanov 7-6(5) 6-1 and Rei Sakamoto 6-4 3-6 7-6(6).

In the semifinal, The French player defeated Sakamoto (6-4 3-6 7-6⁶).During the match, Barrere scored less points (1) than Sakamoto. In fact, the world no. 162 won 98 points vs Sakamoto’s. That means that Barrere was more focused during the important points. Barrere was extremely aggressive to blast 38 winners.

Regarding the service games, Barrere struck 4 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Gregoire Barrere was pretty effective on serve to win 75% (38/51) of his 1st serve and 67% (24/36) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Barrere broke Sakamoto once after converting 10% of his break points (1/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Gregoire has surrendered 1 set in this competition to win 52% of the points he played.

Barrere has winning record in the last 10 years having won 57% of his matches (314-240). 4-0 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Barrere has an overall 50-49 record in the last years on hard.

Barrere’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in the Nonthaburi 1 Challenger.

Barrere has an aggregate 4-0 win-loss record in 2025, 4-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Nonthaburi 1 Challenger

The French player has never competed in this tournament before.

Aslan Karatsev

Ranked no. 287, Karatsev got to the final after beating Goncalo Oliveira 6-4 6-3, Benjamin Hassan 6-3 6-2, Enrico Dalla Valle 6-1 6-1 and Kimmer Coppejans 6-3 6-1

.

In the semifinal, Aslan had a good straight sets win against Coppejans (6-3 6-1). During the match Karatsev scored 62 points vs Coppejans’s 44. The Russian was very aggressive to blast 23 winners.

About the serving games, Karatsev scored 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Aslan Karatsev was quite efficient on serve to win 92% (23/25) of his 1st serve and 63% (10/16) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Russian broke Coppejans 4 times after converting 31% of his break points (4/13).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Aslan hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 60% of the points he played.

The Russian’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in the Nonthaburi 1 Challenger.

The Russian has a compiled 4-0 win-loss record in 2025, 4-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Barrere	Karatsev
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	9	8
Tot Games	100	66
Pts	345-317	252-166
Total Points	662	418
Winners	133	91
%Winners	39%	36%

Both Barrere and Karatsev played 4 matches. At the moment, Gregoire Barrere lost 1 set while Aslan Karatsev hasn’t conceded a set so far. Barrere has played 1 set more than Karatsev (9 vs 8). Therefore, Barrere played 34 games more than Karatsev. Gregoire scored 133 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Karatsev bagged 91 winners (36%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Barrere	Karatsev
Aces	20	17
Avg per match	5	4.3
1st in	194/312	109/189
%1st in	62%	58%
1st pts	133/194	91/109
%1st pts	69%	83%
2nd pts	72/118	48/80
%2nd pts	61%	60%

Barrere bagged 20 aces (5 per match). Karatsev blasted 17 aces (4.3 per match). Barrere won 69% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Karatsev won 83% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Barrere	Karatsev
Won	11	16
Converted	11/36	16/32
% Converted	31%	50%
Conceded	19	4
Saved	12	2
% Saved	63%	50%
Times Broken	7	2

Barrere broke his opponents 11 times with a 31% conversion rate. The French player dropped his serve 7 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded. Karatsev broke his opponents 16 times with a 50% conversion rate. Karatsev conceded his serve twice and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.

Barrere
	R1 Arnaboldi	R2 Svrcina	1/4 Sultanov	1/2 Sakamoto	Total
Score	6-4 7-63	7-5 7-65	7-65 6-1	6-4 3-6 7-66
Tot Set	2	2	2	3	9
Tot Games	23	25	20	32	100
pts	77-72	96-86	74-60	98-99	345-317
Total points	149	182	134	197	662
Winners	27	38	30	38	133
%Winners	35%	40%	41%	39%	39%
SERVE
Aces	4	3	9	4	20
Double Faults	1	0	1	3	5
1st in	43/76	55/80	45/69	51/87	194/312
% 1st in	57%	69%	65%	59%	62%
1st pts	27/43	38/55	30/45	38/51	133/194
% 1st pts	63%	69%	67%	75%	69%
2nd pts	17/33	16/25	15/24	24/36	72/118
% 2nd pts	52%	64%	63%	67%	61%
Breaks
Won	4	3	3	1	11
Converted	4/7	3/9	3/10	1/10	11/36
Converted %	57%	33%	30%	10%	31%
Conceded	6	7	3	3	19
Saved	3/6	5/7	2/3	2/3	12
Saved %	50%	71%	67%	67%	64%
Times Broken	3	2	1	1	7

Karatsev
	R1 Oliveira	R2 Hassan	1/4 Dalla Valle	1/2 Coppejans	Total
Score	6-4 6-3	6-3 6-2	6-1 6-1	6-3 6-1
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	19	17	14	16	66
pts	68-52	59-33	63-37	62-44	252-166
Total points	120	92	100	106	418
Winners	21	25	22	23	91
%Winners	31%	42%	35%	37%	36%
SERVE
Aces	7	4	2	4	17
Double Faults	3	2	0	1	6
1st in	29/57	27/46	28/45	25/41	109/189
% 1st in	51%	59%	62%	61%	58%
1st pts	21/29	25/27	22/28	23/25	91/109
% 1st pts	72%	93%	79%	92%	83%
2nd pts	17/28	12/19	9/17	10/16	48/80
% 2nd pts	61%	63%	53%	63%	60%
Breaks
Won	4	3	5	4	16
Converted	4/7	3/4	5/8	4/13	16/32
Converted %	57%	75%	63%	31%	50%
Conceded	4	0	0	0	4
Saved	2/4	0/0	0/0	0/0	2
Saved %	50%	–	–	–	13%
Times Broken	2	0	0	0	2

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aslan KaratsevKaratsev – Gregoire BarrereBarrere (1-2) – H2H and prediction