Gregoire Barrere and Aslan Karatsev will play each other in the final of the Nonthaburi 1 Challenger for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 1:00 pm on COURT B. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aslan Karatsev who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aslan Karatsev is the pick to win this match.
Aslan Karatsev -> 1.38
Gregoire Barrere -> 2.85
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Prediction and head to head Gregoire Barrere vs. Aslan Karatsev
This will be the 4th time that Gregoire Barrere and Aslan Karatsev square off. The head to head is 2-1 for Barrere (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Barrere won 6-3 6-4 in the quarter in the Lille Challenger back in 2019.
Gregoire Barrere
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4-1 | 4-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 29-32 | 1-4 | 16-12 | 11-14 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 35-31 | 8-12 | 5-7 | 17-8 | 5-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 43-29 | 10-7 | 8-10 | 25-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-23 | 7-4 | 3-6 | 11-10 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 162, Barrere got to the final after defeating Federico Arnaboldi 6-4 7-6(3), Dalibor Svrcina 7-5 7-6(5), Khumoun Sultanov 7-6(5) 6-1 and Rei Sakamoto 6-4 3-6 7-6(6).
In the semifinal, The French player defeated Sakamoto (6-4 3-6 7-66).During the match, Barrere scored less points (1) than Sakamoto. In fact, the world no. 162 won 98 points vs Sakamoto’s. That means that Barrere was more focused during the important points. Barrere was extremely aggressive to blast 38 winners.
Regarding the service games, Barrere struck 4 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Gregoire Barrere was pretty effective on serve to win 75% (38/51) of his 1st serve and 67% (24/36) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Barrere broke Sakamoto once after converting 10% of his break points (1/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Gregoire has surrendered 1 set in this competition to win 52% of the points he played.
Barrere has winning record in the last 10 years having won 57% of his matches (314-240). 4-0 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Barrere has an overall 50-49 record in the last years on hard.
Barrere’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in the Nonthaburi 1 Challenger.
Barrere has an aggregate 4-0 win-loss record in 2025, 4-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Nonthaburi 1 Challenger
The French player has never competed in this tournament before.
Aslan Karatsev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5-0 | 5-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 12-18 | 6-9 | 1-4 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-22 | 13-10 | 14-5 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 18-31 | 8-9 | 5-9 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 37-20 | 23-9 | 9-6 | 4-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 287, Karatsev got to the final after beating Goncalo Oliveira 6-4 6-3, Benjamin Hassan 6-3 6-2, Enrico Dalla Valle 6-1 6-1 and Kimmer Coppejans 6-3 6-1.
In the semifinal, Aslan had a good straight sets win against Coppejans (6-3 6-1). During the match Karatsev scored 62 points vs Coppejans’s 44. The Russian was very aggressive to blast 23 winners.
About the serving games, Karatsev scored 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Aslan Karatsev was quite efficient on serve to win 92% (23/25) of his 1st serve and 63% (10/16) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Russian broke Coppejans 4 times after converting 31% of his break points (4/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aslan hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 60% of the points he played.
The Russian’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in the Nonthaburi 1 Challenger.
The Russian has a compiled 4-0 win-loss record in 2025, 4-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Barrere | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 100 | 66 |
| Pts | 345-317 | 252-166 |
| Total Points | 662 | 418 |
| Winners | 133 | 91 |
| %Winners | 39% | 36% |
Both Barrere and Karatsev played 4 matches. At the moment, Gregoire Barrere lost 1 set while Aslan Karatsev hasn’t conceded a set so far. Barrere has played 1 set more than Karatsev (9 vs 8). Therefore, Barrere played 34 games more than Karatsev. Gregoire scored 133 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Karatsev bagged 91 winners (36%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Barrere | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 20 | 17 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 4.3 |
| 1st in | 194/312 | 109/189 |
| %1st in | 62% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 133/194 | 91/109 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 83% |
| 2nd pts | 72/118 | 48/80 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 60% |
Barrere bagged 20 aces (5 per match). Karatsev blasted 17 aces (4.3 per match). Barrere won 69% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Karatsev won 83% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Barrere | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 11 | 16 |
| Converted | 11/36 | 16/32 |
| % Converted | 31% | 50% |
| Conceded | 19 | 4 |
| Saved | 12 | 2 |
| % Saved | 63% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 2 |
Barrere broke his opponents 11 times with a 31% conversion rate. The French player dropped his serve 7 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded. Karatsev broke his opponents 16 times with a 50% conversion rate. Karatsev conceded his serve twice and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.
| Barrere | ||||||
| R1 Arnaboldi |
R2 Svrcina |
1/4 Sultanov |
1/2 Sakamoto |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-63 | 7-5 7-65 | 7-65 6-1 | 6-4 3-6 7-66 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 25 | 20 | 32 | 100 | |
| pts | 77-72 | 96-86 | 74-60 | 98-99 | 345-317 | |
| Total points | 149 | 182 | 134 | 197 | 662 | |
| Winners | 27 | 38 | 30 | 38 | 133 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 40% | 41% | 39% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 20 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 43/76 | 55/80 | 45/69 | 51/87 | 194/312 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 69% | 65% | 59% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 27/43 | 38/55 | 30/45 | 38/51 | 133/194 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 69% | 67% | 75% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/33 | 16/25 | 15/24 | 24/36 | 72/118 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 64% | 63% | 67% | 61% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 3/9 | 3/10 | 1/10 | 11/36 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 33% | 30% | 10% | 31% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19 | |
| Saved | 3/6 | 5/7 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 71% | 67% | 67% | 64% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| Karatsev | ||||||
| R1 Oliveira |
R2 Hassan |
1/4 Dalla Valle |
1/2 Coppejans |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-1 6-1 | 6-3 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 66 | |
| pts | 68-52 | 59-33 | 63-37 | 62-44 | 252-166 | |
| Total points | 120 | 92 | 100 | 106 | 418 | |
| Winners | 21 | 25 | 22 | 23 | 91 | |
| %Winners | 31% | 42% | 35% | 37% | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 7 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 29/57 | 27/46 | 28/45 | 25/41 | 109/189 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 59% | 62% | 61% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 21/29 | 25/27 | 22/28 | 23/25 | 91/109 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 93% | 79% | 92% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/28 | 12/19 | 9/17 | 10/16 | 48/80 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | 63% | 53% | 63% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 16 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 3/4 | 5/8 | 4/13 | 16/32 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 75% | 63% | 31% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 50% | – | – | – | 13% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aslan KaratsevKaratsev – Gregoire BarrereBarrere (1-2) – H2H and prediction
