Joao Fonseca and Ethan Quinn will square off in the final of the Canberra Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 4:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Joao Fonseca who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Joao Fonseca is the pick to win this match.
Joao Fonseca -> 1.154
Ethan Quinn -> 4.8

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Prediction and head to head Joao Fonseca vs. Ethan Quinn

There is no head to head record between Joao Fonseca and Ethan Quinn since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.

Joao Fonseca

Ranked no. 145, Joao got to the final after beating Mackenzie Mcdonald 6-1 6-3, Duje Ajdukovic 6-1 7-5, Harold Mayot 6-2 6-3 and Jacob Fearnley 6-3 6-3.

In the semifinal, Fonseca had a good straight sets win against Fearnley (6-3 6-3). During the match, Fonseca scored 66 points vs Fearnley’s 50. Fonseca was extremely aggressive to blast 22 winners.

Regarding the service games, Fonseca bagged 7 aces and he was exceptionally consistent in conceding no double faults. Joao Fonseca was extremely efficient on serve to win 76% (22/29) of his 1st serve and 79% (15/19) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Fonseca broke Fearnley 3 times after converting 33% of his break points (3/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Fonseca hasn’t dropped yet a set in this tournament to win 59% of the points he played.

Fonseca has a solid win-loss record in the last 4 years having won 63% of his matches (57-33). 4-0 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Fonseca has an aggregate13-4 match record in the last 4 years on hard.

Joao’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in the Canberra Challenger.

The Brazilian has a compiled 4-0 win-loss record in 2025, 4-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Canberra Challenger

Fonseca has never competed in this tournament before.

Ethan Quinn

Ranked no. 202 (career-high), Ethan reached the final after defeating Paul Jubb 7-6(4) 6-4, Daniel Evans 6-2 6-3, Blake Ellis 7-6(4) 7-6(5), Patrick Kypson 3-6 7-6(5) 6-4, Vit Kopriva 6-4 7-5 and Martin Landaluce 6-3 6-3.

In the semifinal, The American had a good straight sets win against Landaluce (6-3 6-3). During the match Quinn scored 66 points vs Landaluce’s 51. Ethan was extremely aggressive to blast 22 winners.

Talking about serving, Quinn fired 3 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Ethan Quinn was quite efficient on serve to win 73% (22/30) of his 1st serve and 56% (18/32) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The American broke Landaluce 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

The American’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in the Canberra Challenger.

The American has a composed 6-0 win-loss record in 2025, 6-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Fonseca	Quinn
Match played	4	6
Tot Set	8	13
Tot Games	70	138
Pts	252-178	458-396
Total Points	430	854
Winners	98	190
%Winners	39%	41%

Fonseca played 4 matches while Quinn competed in 6 matches. Quinn started his run from the qualifications while Fonseca had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Ethan Quinn surrendered 1 set while Joao Fonseca hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Fonseca has played 5 set(s) less than Quinn (8 vs 13). Therefore, Fonseca played 68 games less than Quinn. Joao scored 98 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Quinn blasted 190 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Fonseca	Quinn
Aces	28	43
Avg per match	7	7.2
1st in	131/200	256/422
%1st in	66%	61%
1st pts	98/131	190/256
%1st pts	75%	74%
2nd pts	40/69	102/166
%2nd pts	58%	61%

Fonseca fired 28 aces (7 per match). Quinn blasted 43 aces (7.2 per match). Fonseca won 75% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Quinn won 74% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Fonseca	Quinn
Won	19	17
Converted	19/33	17/46
% Converted	58%	37%
Conceded	13	23
Saved	9	15
% Saved	69%	65%
Times Broken	4	8

The Brazilian broke his opponents 19 times with a 58% conversion rate. Fonseca lost his serve 4 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponents 17 times with a 37% conversion rate. Quinn conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 65% of the break points that he conceded.

Fonseca
	R1 Mcdonald	R2 Ajdukovic	1/4 Mayot	1/2 Fearnley	Total
Score	6-1 6-3	6-1 7-5	6-2 6-3	6-3 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	16	19	17	18	70
pts	54-31	67-47	65-50	66-50	252-178
Total points	85	114	115	116	430
Winners	24	27	25	22	98
%Winners	44%	40%	38%	33%	39%
SERVE
Aces	8	4	9	7	28
Double Faults	2	2	3	0	7
1st in	28/42	35/52	39/58	29/48	131/200
% 1st in	67%	67%	67%	60%	66%
1st pts	24/28	27/35	25/39	22/29	98/131
% 1st pts	86%	77%	64%	76%	75%
2nd pts	9/14	7/17	9/19	15/19	40/69
% 2nd pts	64%	41%	47%	79%	58%
Breaks
Won	4	6	6	3	19
Converted	4/6	6/9	6/9	3/9	19/33
Converted %	67%	67%	67%	33%	58%
Conceded	1	4	7	1	13
Saved	1/1	2/4	5/7	1/1	9
Saved %	100%	50%	71%	100%	80%
Times Broken	0	2	2	0	4

Quinn
	Q1 Jubb	Q3 Evans	R1 Ellis	R2 Kypson	1/4 Kopriva	1/2 Landaluce	Total
Score	7-64 6-4	6-2 6-3	7-64 7-65	3-6 7-65 6-4	6-4 7-5	6-3 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	2	3	2	2	13
Tot Games	23	17	26	32	22	18	138
pts	77-69	63-38	83-82	95-96	74-60	66-51	458-396
Total points	146	101	165	191	134	117	854
Winners	34	25	35	48	26	22	190
%Winners	44%	40%	42%	51%	35%	33%	41%
SERVE
Aces	6	7	5	17	5	3	43
Double Faults	0	1	3	1	0	4	9
1st in	48/79	29/44	52/84	61/96	36/57	30/62	256/422
% 1st in	61%	66%	62%	64%	63%	48%	61%
1st pts	34/48	25/29	35/52	48/61	26/36	22/30	190/256
% 1st pts	71%	86%	67%	79%	72%	73%	74%
2nd pts	18/31	11/15	18/32	21/35	16/21	18/32	102/166
% 2nd pts	58%	73%	56%	60%	76%	56%	61%
Breaks
Won	2	3	3	2	3	4	17
Converted	2/4	3/8	3/10	2/6	3/9	4/9	17/46
Converted %	50%	38%	30%	33%	33%	44%	37%
Conceded	6	0	7	6	1	3	23
Saved	5/6	0/0	4/7	4/6	0/1	2/3	15
Saved %	83%	–	57%	67%	0%	67%	69%
Times Broken	1	0	3	2	1	1	8

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