Henrique Rocha and Nicolas Alvarez Varona will play each other in the 2^nd round of the Maia Challenger for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 1:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Henrique Rocha who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Henrique Rocha is the pick to win this match.
Henrique Rocha -> 1.57
Nicolas Alvarez Varona -> 2.28

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Prediction and head to head Henrique Rocha vs. Nicolas Alvarez Varona

This will be the 2^nd time that Henrique Rocha and Nicolas Alvarez Varona clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Rocha (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.

The last time that they competed against each other, Rocha won 6-3 6-4 in the 1^st round in the Zagreb Challenger back in June 2024.

Henrique Rocha

Ranked no. 173, the Portuguese reached the 2^nd round after beating Anton Matusevich 2-6 6-4 7-6(6).

In the 1^st round against Matusevich, Rocha recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-4 7-6⁶). During the match, Rocha scored 103 points vs Matusevich’s 99. Henrique was pretty aggressive to blast 42 winners.

Regarding the service games, Rocha made 5 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Henrique Rocha lost the serve 3 times and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Rocha put 63% of his first serves in, winning 70% (42/60) of the points behind his 1st serve and 63% (22/35) on the 2nd serve. Henrique broke Matusevich twice after converting 25% of his break points (2/8).

Rocha has a winning record in the last 5 years having won 58% of his matches (125-89). 26-21 on clay in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Rocha has a compiled54-49 record in the last 5 years on clay.

His best result of the current season was conquering the title the Murcia Challenger where he overcame Nikoloz Basilashvili in the final 3-6 7-6(0) 7-5.

The Portuguese has an aggregate 39-32 win-loss record in 2024, 26-21 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Maia Challenger

Nicolas Alvarez Varona

Ranked no. 382, the Spaniard reached the 2^nd round after beating Joao Silva 7-5 6-3, Max Alcala Gurri 4-6 6-2 7-6(2) and Ivan Gakhov 6-3 7-5.

In the 1^st round, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Gakhov (6-3 7-5). During the match Alvarez scored 69 points vs Gakhov’s 57. Alvarez was extremely aggressive to blast 30 winners.

About the serving games, Alvarez recorded 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Nicolas Alvarez Varona was pretty efficient on serve to win 75% (30/40) of his 1st serve and 59% (13/22) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Nicolas broke Gakhov 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).

Alvarez’s best result of the season was reaching the final in M15 Gijon,M25 Oviedo and M25 Sabadell.

Nicolas has a compiled 43-25 win-loss record in 2024, 36-18 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Maia Challenger

Previously, his best result was reaching the 1^st round in 2022. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Rocha	Alvarez
Match played	1	3
Tot Set	3	7
Tot Games	31	73
Pts	103-99	258-218
Total Points	202	476
Winners	42	104
%Winners	41%	40%

Rocha played 1 match while Alvarez competed in 3 matches. Alvarez started his run from the qualifications while Rocha had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Henrique Rocha dropped 1 set, while Nicolas Alvarez Varona lost 1 set. Rocha has played 4 set(s) less than Alvarez (3 vs 7). Therefore, Rocha played 42 games less than Alvarez. Rocha scored 42 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Nicolas struck 104 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Rocha	Alvarez
Aces	5	16
Avg per match	5	5.3
1st in	60/95	144/227
%1st in	63%	63%
1st pts	42/60	104/144
%1st pts	70%	72%
2nd pts	22/35	45/83
%2nd pts	63%	54%

Rocha fired 5 aces . Alvarez managed to score 16 aces (5.3 per match). Rocha won 70% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Alvarez won 72% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Rocha	Alvarez
Won	2	11
Converted	2/8	11/33
% Converted	25%	33%
Conceded	9	13
Saved	6	7
% Saved	67%	54%
Times Broken	3	6

Rocha broke his opponent twice with a 25% conversion rate. Henrique conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Nicolas broke his opponents 11 times with a 33% conversion rate. The Spaniard conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 54% of the break points that he conceded.

Rocha
	R1 Matusevich	Total
Score	2-6 6-4 7-66
Tot Set	3	3
Tot Games	31	31
pts	103-99	103-99
Total points	202	202
Winners	42	42
%Winners	41%	41%
SERVE
Aces	5	5
Double Faults	4	4
1st in	60/95	60/95
% 1st in	63%	63%
1st pts	42/60	42/60
% 1st pts	70%	70%
2nd pts	22/35	22/35
% 2nd pts	63%	63%
Breaks
Won	2	2
Converted	2/8	2/8
Converted %	25%	25%
Conceded	9	9
Saved	6/9	6
Saved %	67%	67%
Times Broken	3	3

Alvarez
	Q1 Silva	Q3 Alcala Gurri	R1 Gakhov	Total
Score	7-5 6-3	4-6 6-2 7-62	6-3 7-5
Tot Set	2	3	2	7
Tot Games	21	31	21	73
pts	74-59	115-102	69-57	258-218
Total points	133	217	126	476
Winners	30	44	30	104
%Winners	41%	38%	43%	40%
SERVE
Aces	3	9	4	16
Double Faults	1	4	1	6
1st in	38/61	66/104	40/62	144/227
% 1st in	62%	63%	65%	63%
1st pts	30/38	44/66	30/40	104/144
% 1st pts	79%	67%	75%	72%
2nd pts	13/23	19/38	13/22	45/83
% 2nd pts	57%	50%	59%	54%
Breaks
Won	3	5	3	11
Converted	3/11	5/16	3/6	11/33
Converted %	27%	31%	50%	33%
Conceded	4	6	3	13
Saved	3/4	2/6	2/3	7
Saved %	75%	33%	67%	175%
Times Broken	1	4	1	6

Tennis Scores in Maia Challenger

• Kimmer CoppejansCoppejans – Alejandro Moro CanasMoro Canas (6-4 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Federico CoriaCoria – Adrian AndreevAndreev (w/o) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Daniel Merida AguilarMerida Aguilar – Pol Martin TiffonMartin Tiffon (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Albert Ramos-VinolasRamos-Vinolas – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Kimmer CoppejansCoppejans – Federico CoriaCoria (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Nicolas Alvarez VaronaAlvarez Varona – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Oleksandr OvcharenkoOvcharenko – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Francesco PassaroPassaro – (0-0) – H2H and prediction