Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev will face off in the Round Robin of the the Nitto ATP Finals for the 15th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 8:30 pm on Centre Court. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jannik Sinner who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jannik Sinner is the pick to win this match.
Jannik Sinner -> 1.27
Daniil Medvedev -> 3.76
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Â
Prediction and head to head Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev
This will be the 15th time that Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev square off. The head to head is 7-7 (see full H2H stats), 5-2 on indoor hard courts.
The last time that they locked horns, Sinner won 6-1 6-4 in the quarter in Shanghai back in October 2024.
Highlights Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev – Shanghai 10-October-2024
Jannik Sinner
68 - 6win/loss
1
1
WWWWWWWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 73-6 | 40-3 | 11-2 | 13-0 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 64-15 | 28-7 | 8-3 | 20-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-16 | 21-6 | 15-4 | 7-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 49-22 | 22-8 | 10-6 | 17-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 20-14 | 2-6 | 7-3 | 11-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 the Italian got to the Round Robin after defeating Alex De Minaur 6-3 6-4 and Taylor Fritz 6-4 6-4.
In the previous match, Sinner had a good straight sets win against Fritz (6-4 6-4). During the match, Sinner scored 70 points vs Fritz’s 60. Sinner was extremely aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sinner managed to score 6 aces and he was extremely steady in conceding no double faults. Jannik Sinner was quite efficient on serve to win 77% (30/39) of his 1st serve and 59% (16/27) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Jannik broke Fritz twice after converting 33% of his break points (2/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian hasn’t lost yet a set in this competition to conquer 57% of the points he played.
Sinner has a fantastic match record in the last 7 years having won 74% of his matches (340-119). 7-0 on indoor hard courts in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sinner has a composed94-25 record in the last 7 years on indoor hard courts.
His best result of the current year was winning the title at the Australian Open where he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final 3-6 3-6 6-4 6-4 6-3 and in Rotterdam where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 7-5 6-4 and in Miami where he overcame Grigor Dimitrov in the final 6-3 6-1 and in Halle where he overcame Hubert Hurkacz in the final 7-6(8) 7-6(2) and in Cincinnati where he overcame Frances Tiafoe in the final 7-6(4) 6-2 and at the U.S. Open where he beat Taylor Fritz in the final 6-3 6-4 7-5 and in Shanghai where he beat Novak Djokovic in the final 7-6(4) 6-3.
Jannik has an overall 67-6 win-loss record in 2024, 7-0 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals
Daniil Medvedev
46 - 21win/loss
5
1
LWLLLWWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46-21 | 28-9 | 11-5 | 1-5 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-10 | 14-4 | 0-2 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4, Medvedev reached the Round Robin after beating Alex De Minaur 6-2 6-4.
In the previous match, Medvedev had a good straight sets win against De Minaur (6-2 6-4). During the match Medvedev scored 63 points vs De Minaur’s 46. Daniil was extremely aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Talking about serving, Medvedev recorded 3 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Daniil Medvedev was quite effective on serve to win 84% (27/32) of his 1st serve and 73% (11/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Medvedev broke De Minaur 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).
Medvedev’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in at the Australian Open and Indian Wells.
The Russian has an aggregate 46-20 win-loss record in 2024, 1-4 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals
Previously, he won this tournament once in 2020. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sinner | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 39 | 18 |
| Pts | 133-101 | 63-46 |
| Total Points | 234 | 109 |
| Winners | 56 | 27 |
| %Winners | 42% | 43% |
Sinner played 2 matches while Medvedev competed in 1 match. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Sinner has played 2 sets more than Medvedev (4 vs 2). Therefore, Sinner played 21 games more than Medvedev. Sinner scored 56 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian recorded 27 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sinner | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 14 | 3 |
| Avg per match | 7 | 3 |
| 1st in | 71/115 | 32/47 |
| %1st in | 62% | 68% |
| 1st pts | 56/71 | 27/32 |
| %1st pts | 79% | 84% |
| 2nd pts | 29/44 | 11/15 |
| %2nd pts | 66% | 73% |
Sinner made 14 aces (7 per match). Medvedev recorded 3 aces . Sinner won 79% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 66% of the points. On the other side, Medvedev won 84% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 73% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sinner | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 3 |
| Converted | 5/13 | 3/4 |
| % Converted | 38% | 75% |
| Conceded | 2 | 0 |
| Saved | 1 | 0 |
| % Saved | 50% | 0% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 |
Jannik broke his opponents 5 times with a 38% conversion rate. Jannik surrendered his serve once and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Medvedev broke his opponent 3 times with a 75% conversion rate. Medvedev was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 0 break points.
| Sinner | ||||
| Round Robin Fritz |
Round Robin De Minaur |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 19 | 39 | |
| pts | 70-60 | 63-41 | 133-101 | |
| Total points | 130 | 104 | 234 | |
| Winners | 30 | 26 | 56 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 41% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 8 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 39/66 | 32/49 | 71/115 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 65% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 30/39 | 26/32 | 56/71 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 81% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/27 | 13/17 | 29/44 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 76% | 66% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 3/7 | 5/13 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 43% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 0/1 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 0% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Medvedev | ||||
| Round Robin De Minaur |
Round Robin Fritz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-4 | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 19 | 37 | |
| pts | 63-46 | – | 63-46 | |
| Total points | 109 | 0 | 109 | |
| Winners | 27 | 27 | ||
| %Winners | 43% | 0% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | ||
| 1st in | 32/47 | / | 32/47 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 0% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 27/32 | / | 27/32 | |
| % 1st pts | 84% | 0% | 84% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/15 | / | 11/15 | |
| % 2nd pts | 73% | 0% | 73% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | ||
| Converted | 3/4 | / | 3/4 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 0% | 75% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 0 | ||
| Saved | 0/0 | 0/ | 0 | |
| Saved % | – | – | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | ||
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
LWLLLWWWLW Tennis Scores in Nitto ATP Finals
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Andrey RublevRublev (6-3 7-68) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic – Rohan Bopanna/Matthew EbdenBopanna/Matthew Ebden (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Taylor FritzFritz (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Harri Heliovaara/Henry PattenHeliovaara/Henry Patten – Max Purcell/Jordan ThompsonPurcell/Jordan Thompson (7-63 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Wesley Koolhof/Nikola MekticKoolhof/Nikola Mektic – Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos (4-6 7-66 10-8) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Casper RuudRuud – Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz (6-1 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Simone Bolelli/Andrea VavassoriBolelli/Andrea Vavassori – Rohan Bopanna/Matthew EbdenBopanna/Matthew Ebden (6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Andrey RublevRublev (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Kevin Krawietz/Tim PuetzKrawietz/Tim Puetz – Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Taylor FritzFritz – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Max Purcell/Jordan ThompsonPurcell/Jordan Thompson – Wesley Koolhof/Nikola MekticKoolhof/Nikola Mektic (7-61 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (7-5) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (3-6) – H2H and prediction
- Casper RuudRuud – Andrey RublevRublev (2-5) – H2H and prediction
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (7-7) – H2H and prediction
