Luca Nardi and Kei Nishikori will play each other in the final of the Helsinki Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Kei Nishikori who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Kei Nishikori is the pick to win this match.
Kei Nishikori -> 1.39
Luca Nardi -> 2.81

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Prediction and head to head Luca Nardi vs. Kei Nishikori

There is no head to head record between Luca Nardi and Kei Nishikori since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.

Luca Nardi

Ranked no. 102, Luca reached the final after beating Goncalo Oliveira 6-3 ret., August Holmgren 7-6(6) 7-6(2), Jan Choinski 6-4 6-3 and Denis Yevseyev 2-6 6-3 7-6(4).

In the semifinal against Yevseyev, Luca recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-3 7-6⁴).During the match, Nardi scored less points (8) than Yevseyev. In fact, the world no. 102 won 98 points vs Yevseyev’s. That means that Nardi was more focused during the important points. The Italian was very aggressive to blast 41 winners.

Talking about the service games, Nardi scored 4 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Luca Nardi lost the serve 5 times and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Nardi put 63% of his first serves in, winning 62% (41/66) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (17/39) on the 2nd serve. Nardi broke Yevseyev 5 times after converting 83% of his break points (5/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Luca has lost 1 set in this competition to conquer 51% of the points he played.

Nardi has a winning record in the last 7 years having won 55% of his matches (147-118). 4-2 on indoor hard courts in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Nardi has an aggregate38-35 win-loss record in the last 7 years on indoor hard courts.

His best result of the year was winning the title the Naples Challenger where he overcame Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the final 5-7 7-6(3) 6-2.

The Italian has an overall 26-25 win-loss record in 2024, 4-2 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Helsinki Challenger

Luca has never competed in this tournament before.

Kei Nishikori

Ranked no. 132, Kei got to the final after beating Nicolas Alvarez Varona 6-4 6-2, Jerome Kym 6-3 1-6 6-2, Jacob Fearnley 6-4 6-3 and Max Hans Rehberg 6-4 6-7(6) 6-2

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In the semifinal, The Japanese defeated Hans Rehberg (6-4 6-7⁶ 6-2). During the match Nishikori scored 119 points vs Hans Rehberg’s 106. Kei was exceptionally aggressive to blast 49 winners.

Talking about serving, Nishikori bagged 2 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Kei Nishikori lost the serve twice and he saved 11 break points. Furthermore, Nishikori put 67% of his first serves in, winning 68% (49/72) of the points behind his 1st serve and 51% (18/35) on the 2nd serve. The Japanese broke Hans Rehberg 5 times after converting 42% of his break points (5/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Japanese has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

Kei’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in the Bratislava 2 Challenger and the Helsinki Challenger.

Nishikori has an overall 19-11 win-loss record in 2024, 7-2 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Nardi	Nishikori
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	9	10
Tot Games	84	92
Pts	277-256	320-288
Total Points	533	608
Winners	112	134
%Winners	40%	42%

Both Nardi and Nishikori played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Luca Nardi conceded 1 set, while Kei Nishikori conceded 2 sets. Nardi has played 1 set(s) less than Nishikori (9 vs 10). Therefore, Nardi played 8 games less than Nishikori. Luca scored 112 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, The Japanese blasted 134 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Nardi	Nishikori
Aces	14	9
Avg per match	3.5	2.3
1st in	166/264	194/309
%1st in	63%	63%
1st pts	112/166	134/194
%1st pts	67%	69%
2nd pts	54/98	54/115
%2nd pts	55%	47%

Nardi scored 14 aces (3.5 per match). Nishikori blasted 9 aces (2.3 per match). Nardi won 67% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Nishikori won 69% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 47% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Nardi	Nishikori
Won	14	19
Converted	14/20	19/38
% Converted	70%	50%
Conceded	22	33
Saved	12	23
% Saved	55%	70%
Times Broken	10	10

The Italian broke his opponents 14 times with a 70% conversion rate. Luca dropped his serve 10 times and he saved 55% of the break points that he conceded. The Japanese broke his opponents 19 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Japanese conceded his serve 10 times and he saved 70% of the break points that he conceded.

Nardi
	R1 Oliveira	R2 Holmgren	1/4 Choinski	1/2 Yevseyev	Total
Score	6-3 ret.	7-66 7-62	6-4 6-3	2-6 6-3 7-64
Tot Set	1	2	2	3	8
Tot Games	9	26	19	30	84
pts	28-21	87-80	64-49	98-106	277-256
Total points	49	167	113	204	533
Winners	12	42	17	41	112
%Winners	43%	48%	27%	42%	40%
SERVE
Aces	2	7	1	4	14
Double Faults	2	4	3	3	12
1st in	14/21	56/84	30/54	66/105	166/264
% 1st in	67%	67%	56%	63%	63%
1st pts	12/14	42/56	17/30	41/66	112/166
% 1st pts	86%	75%	57%	62%	67%
2nd pts	4/7	16/28	17/24	17/39	54/98
% 2nd pts	57%	57%	71%	44%	55%
Breaks
Won	2	2	5	5	14
Converted	2/2	2/4	5/8	5/6	14/20
Converted %	100%	50%	63%	83%	70%
Conceded	0	3	6	13	22
Saved	0/0	1/3	3/6	8/13	12
Saved %	–	33%	50%	62%	36%
Times Broken	0	2	3	5	10

Nishikori
	R1 Alvarez	R2 Kym	1/4 Fearnley	1/2 Hans	Total
Score	6-4 6-2	6-3 1-6 6-2	6-4 6-3	6-4 6-76 6-2
Tot Set	2	3	2	3	10
Tot Games	18	24	19	31	92
pts	65-55	71-70	65-57	119-106	320-288
Total points	120	141	122	225	608
Winners	25	34	26	49	134
%Winners	38%	48%	40%	41%	42%
SERVE
Aces	3	4	0	2	9
Double Faults	7	4	1	3	15
1st in	31/64	52/74	39/64	72/107	194/309
% 1st in	48%	70%	61%	67%	63%
1st pts	25/31	34/52	26/39	49/72	134/194
% 1st pts	81%	65%	67%	68%	69%
2nd pts	15/33	9/22	12/25	18/35	54/115
% 2nd pts	45%	41%	48%	51%	47%
Breaks
Won	4	5	5	5	19
Converted	4/7	5/7	5/12	5/12	19/38
Converted %	57%	71%	42%	42%	50%
Conceded	4	10	6	13	33
Saved	3/4	6/10	3/6	11/13	23
Saved %	75%	60%	50%	85%	68%
Times Broken	1	4	3	2	10

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Kei NishikoriNishikori – (0-0) – H2H and prediction