Naoki Nakagawa and Alexander Kotzen will face off in the qualifications of the Knoxville Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 3:00 pm on COURT 3. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Naoki Nakagawa who should win in 3 sets.
Naoki Nakagawa -> 1.48
Alexander Kotzen -> 2.5
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Prediction and head to head Naoki Nakagawa vs. Alexander Kotzen
There is no head to head record between Naoki Nakagawa and Alexander Kotzen since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.
Naoki Nakagawa
23 - 12win/loss
375
334
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23-12 | 11-10 | 1-1 | 11-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-23 | 42-19 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 31-27 | 16-16 | 10-9 | 5-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-15 | 32-13 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 14-4 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 385, Naoki got to the qualifications after defeating Andres Urrea 6-4 6-3.
In the qualifications, Naoki had a good straight sets win against Urrea (6-4 6-3). During the match, Nakagawa scored 61 points vs Urrea’s 39. The Japanese was exceptionally aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Regarding the service games, Nakagawa bagged 8 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Naoki Nakagawa was very efficient on serve to win 76% (25/33) of his 1st serve and 79% (11/14) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Naoki was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Urrea 4 times.
Nakagawa has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 61% of his matches (280-179). 11-1 on indoor hard courts in 2024. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Nakagawa has a compiled 19-10 record in the last years on indoor hard courts.
His best result of the year was winning the title the Columbus Challenger where he beat James Kent Trotter in the final 7-6(8) 5-7 7-6(5).
Naoki has a compiled 23-12 win-loss record in 2024, 11-1 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Knoxville Challenger
Nakagawa has never competed in this tournament before.
Alexander Kotzen
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 14-8 | 12-7 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 16-14 | 12-9 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 10-7 | 6-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 41-18 | 34-13 | 7-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 13-8 | 13-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 860, the American got to the qualifications after beating Aidan Mchugh 7-6(5) 7-6(5).
In the qualifications, Kotzen had a good straight sets win against Mchugh (7-65 7-65). During the match Kotzen scored 87 points vs Mchugh’s 86. Alexander was extremely aggressive to blast 35 winners.
About the serving games, Kotzen scored 13 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Alexander Kotzen was pretty efficient on serve to win 85% (35/41) of his 1st serve and 54% (21/39) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Kotzen broke Mchugh once after converting 17% of his break points (1/6).
Kotzen’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in M25 Tulsa.
Alexander has a compiled 14-8 win-loss record in 2024, 2-1 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Knoxville Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Nakagawa | Kotzen |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 19 | 26 |
| Pts | 61-39 | 87-86 |
| Total Points | 100 | 173 |
| Winners | 25 | 35 |
| %Winners | 41% | 40% |
Both Nakagawa and Kotzen played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Nakagawa and Kotzen have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Nakagawa played 7 games less than Kotzen. Naoki scored 25 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Kotzen struck 35 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Nakagawa | Kotzen |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 8 | 13 |
| Avg per match | 8 | 13 |
| 1st in | 33/47 | 41/80 |
| %1st in | 70% | 51% |
| 1st pts | 25/33 | 35/41 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 85% |
| 2nd pts | 11/14 | 21/39 |
| %2nd pts | 79% | 54% |
Nakagawa managed to score 8 aces . Kotzen blasted 13 aces . Nakagawa won 76% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 79% of the points. On the other side, Kotzen won 85% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Nakagawa | Kotzen |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 1 |
| Converted | 4/4 | 1/6 |
| % Converted | 100% | 17% |
| Conceded | 2 | 4 |
| Saved | 1 | 3 |
| % Saved | 50% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 |
Naoki broke his opponent 4 times with a 100% conversion rate. The Japanese lost his serve once and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponent once with a 17% conversion rate. Alexander conceded his serve once and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Nakagawa | |||
| Q1 Urrea | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 19 | |
| pts | 61-39 | 61-39 | |
| Total points | 100 | 100 | |
| Winners | 25 | 25 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 8 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 33/47 | 33/47 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 25/33 | 25/33 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/14 | 11/14 | |
| % 2nd pts | 79% | 79% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/4 | 4/4 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
| Kotzen | |||
| Q1 Mchugh | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-65 7-65 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 26 | |
| pts | 87-86 | 87-86 | |
| Total points | 173 | 173 | |
| Winners | 35 | 35 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 13 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 41/80 | 41/80 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 51% | |
| 1st pts | 35/41 | 35/41 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 85% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/39 | 21/39 | |
| % 2nd pts | 54% | 54% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 1 | 1 | |
| Converted | 1/6 | 1/6 | |
| Converted % | 17% | 17% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
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- Andre IlaganIlagan – (0-1) – H2H and prediction