Naoki Nakagawa and Alexander Kotzen will face off in the qualifications of the Knoxville Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 3:00 pm on COURT 3. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Naoki Nakagawa who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Naoki Nakagawa is the pick to win this match.
Naoki Nakagawa -> 1.48
Alexander Kotzen -> 2.5

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Prediction and head to head Naoki Nakagawa vs. Alexander Kotzen

There is no head to head record between Naoki Nakagawa and Alexander Kotzen since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.

Naoki Nakagawa

Naoki Nakagawa

23 - 13win/loss

Hard
11-10
I Hard
11-2
Clay
1-1
Rank
381
High
334
LWLLWLWWLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 24-15 12-11 1-1 11-3 0-0 0-0
2023 43-23 42-19 1-3 0-1 0-0 0-0
2022 31-27 16-16 10-9 5-2 0-0 0-0
2021 34-15 32-13 2-2 0-0 0-0 0-0
2020 14-4 14-4 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 385, Naoki got to the qualifications after defeating Andres Urrea 6-4 6-3.

In the qualifications, Naoki had a good straight sets win against Urrea (6-4 6-3). During the match, Nakagawa scored 61 points vs Urrea’s 39. The Japanese was exceptionally aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Regarding the service games, Nakagawa bagged 8 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Naoki Nakagawa was very efficient on serve to win 76% (25/33) of his 1st serve and 79% (11/14) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Naoki was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Urrea 4 times.

Nakagawa has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 61% of his matches (280-179). 11-1 on indoor hard courts in 2024. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Nakagawa has a compiled 19-10 record in the last years on indoor hard courts.

His best result of the year was winning the title the Columbus Challenger where he beat James Kent Trotter in the final 7-6(8) 5-7 7-6(5).

Naoki has a compiled 23-12 win-loss record in 2024, 11-1 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Knoxville Challenger

Nakagawa has never competed in this tournament before.

Knoxville Challenger
Nakagawa's Record

Alexander Kotzen

Alexander Kotzen

15 - 8win/loss

Hard
12-7
I Hard
3-1
Rank
868
High
812
LWWLLWWLWL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 15-9 12-7 0-0 3-2 0-0 0-0
2023 16-14 12-9 1-1 3-4 0-0 0-0
2022 10-7 6-5 0-0 4-2 0-0 0-0
2021 41-18 34-13 7-5 0-0 0-0 0-0
2020 13-8 13-8 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 860, the American got to the qualifications after beating Aidan Mchugh 7-6(5) 7-6(5).

In the qualifications, Kotzen had a good straight sets win against Mchugh (7-65 7-65). During the match Kotzen scored 87 points vs Mchugh’s 86. Alexander was extremely aggressive to blast 35 winners.

About the serving games, Kotzen scored 13 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Alexander Kotzen was pretty efficient on serve to win 85% (35/41) of his 1st serve and 54% (21/39) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Kotzen broke Mchugh once after converting 17% of his break points (1/6).

Kotzen’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in M25 Tulsa.

Alexander has a compiled 14-8 win-loss record in 2024, 2-1 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Knoxville Challenger

Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2023. See his history.

Knoxville Challenger
Kotzen's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament

N.Nakagawa
A.Kotzen
1h:06
1h:06
Time on court​
!
2h:27
2h:27
1h:06
1h:06
Last match​
!
2h:27
2h:27
1
1
Match played
1
1
19
19
Games Played​
26
26
2
2
Set played​​
2
2
61
61
Total points​
87
87
61
61
Avg point​
87
87
25
25
Winners
35
35
25
25
Avg Winners​
35
35
41%
41%
Ratio winners
40%
40%
-- Serve --
8
8
Aces
13
13
8
8
Avg Aces
!
13
13
1
1
Double Faults
2
2
1
1
Avg Double Faults
2
2
25/33
25/33
1st won total​
35/41
35/41
!
76%
76%
1st won %
!
85%
85%
11/14
11/14
2nd won total​
21/39
21/39
!
79%
79%
2nd won %
54%
54%
-- Break Points --
4/4
4/4
BP won
1/6
1/6
4/4
4/4
Avg BP won
1/6
1/6
!
100%
100%
Won
!
17%
17%
2
2
Conceded
4
4
2
2
Avg Conceded
4
4
1
1
Broken
1
1
1
1
Avg Broken
1
1
1
1
Saved
3
3

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Nakagawa Kotzen
Match played 1 1
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 19 26
Pts 61-39 87-86
Total Points 100 173
Winners 25 35
%Winners 41% 40%

Both Nakagawa and Kotzen played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Nakagawa and Kotzen have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Nakagawa played 7 games less than Kotzen. Naoki scored 25 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Kotzen struck 35 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve Nakagawa Kotzen
Aces 8 13
Avg per match 8 13
1st in 33/47 41/80
%1st in 70% 51%
1st pts 25/33 35/41
%1st pts 76% 85%
2nd pts 11/14 21/39
%2nd pts 79% 54%

Nakagawa managed to score 8 aces . Kotzen blasted 13 aces . Nakagawa won 76% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 79% of the points. On the other side, Kotzen won 85% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Nakagawa Kotzen
Won 4 1
Converted 4/4 1/6
% Converted 100% 17%
Conceded 2 4
Saved 1 3
% Saved 50% 75%
Times Broken 1 1

Naoki broke his opponent 4 times with a 100% conversion rate. The Japanese lost his serve once and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponent once with a 17% conversion rate. Alexander conceded his serve once and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.

Nakagawa
Q1
Urrea
Total
Score 6-4 6-3
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 19 19
pts 61-39 61-39
Total points 100 100
Winners 25 25
%Winners 41% 41%
SERVE
Aces 8 8
Double Faults 1 1
1st in 33/47 33/47
% 1st in 70% 70%
1st pts 25/33 25/33
% 1st pts 76% 76%
2nd pts 11/14 11/14
% 2nd pts 79% 79%
Breaks
Won 4 4
Converted 4/4 4/4
Converted % 100% 100%
Conceded 2 2
Saved 1/2 1
Saved % 50% 50%
Times Broken 1 1
Kotzen
Q1
Mchugh
Total
Score 7-65 7-65
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 26 26
pts 87-86 87-86
Total points 173 173
Winners 35 35
%Winners 40% 40%
SERVE
Aces 13 13
Double Faults 2 2
1st in 41/80 41/80
% 1st in 51% 51%
1st pts 35/41 35/41
% 1st pts 85% 85%
2nd pts 21/39 21/39
% 2nd pts 54% 54%
Breaks
Won 1 1
Converted 1/6 1/6
Converted % 17% 17%
Conceded 4 4
Saved 3/4 3
Saved % 75% 75%
Times Broken 1 1

Upcoming matches in the draw