Daniel Merida Aguilar and Nicolas Alvarez Varona will face off in the qualifications of the Olbia Challenger for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 12:30 pm on CAMPO 2. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Nicolas Alvarez Varona who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Nicolas Alvarez Varona is the pick to win this match.
Nicolas Alvarez Varona -> 1.666
Daniel Merida Aguilar -> 2.11
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Prediction and head to head Daniel Merida Aguilar vs. Nicolas Alvarez Varona
This will be the 3rd time that Daniel Merida Aguilar and Nicolas Alvarez Varona square off. The head to head is 1-1 for Merida Aguilar and Alvarez Varona (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Alvarez Varona won 7-6(3) 6-0 in the final in M25 Oviedo back in August 2024.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
53 - 29win/loss
314
310
LLLWWWLLWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 55-32 | 17-9 | 38-22 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-31 | 16-13 | 20-17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 29-26 | 8-9 | 21-16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 12-14 | 1-4 | 11-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 331 (career-high), Daniel reached the qualifications after defeating Vladyslav Orlov 6-2 6-4.
In the qualifications, Merida Aguilar had a good straight sets win against Orlov (6-2 6-4). During the match, Merida Aguilar scored 66 points vs Orlov’s 50. Merida Aguilar was exceptionally aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Regarding the service games, Merida Aguilar scored just 1 ace in the encounter and he committed only 7 double faults. Daniel Merida Aguilar lost the serve 4 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Merida Aguilar put 67% of his first serves in, winning 57% (24/42) of the points behind his 1st serve and 38% (8/21) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Orlov 7 times after converting 70% of his break points (7/10).
Merida Aguilar has a winning record in the last 5 years having won 56% of his matches (132-103). 15-8 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Merida Aguilar has a compiled40-34 record in the last 5 years on hard.
Daniel’s best result of the season was getting to the final in M25 Antalya,M25 Santander,M25 Oviedo and M15 Madrid.
The Spaniard has an aggregate 53-29 win-loss record in 2024, 15-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Olbia Challenger
Merida Aguilar has never competed in this tournament before.
Nicolas Alvarez Varona
37 - 21win/loss
375
219
LLWLWWLWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 40-25 | 4-3 | 33-18 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 9-9 | 3-2 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 24-34 | 3-7 | 13-19 | 8-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 40-26 | 11-8 | 29-17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-9 | 21-6 | 7-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 434, Nicolas reached the qualifications after beating Leonardo Mazzucchelli 6-2 6-1.
In the qualifications, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Mazzucchelli (6-2 6-1). During the match Alvarez Varona scored 62 points vs Mazzucchelli’s 36. Alvarez Varona was extremely aggressive to blast 26 winners.
About the serving games, Alvarez Varona struck 9 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Nicolas Alvarez Varona was pretty efficient on serve to win 81% (26/32) of his 1st serve and 60% (9/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Nicolas broke Mazzucchelli 4 times after converting 31% of his break points (4/13).
Nicolas’s best result of the season was reaching the final in M15 Gijon,M25 Oviedo and M25 Sabadell.
Alvarez Varona has a compiled 37-21 win-loss record in 2024, 4-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Merida Aguilar | Alvarez Varona |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 18 | 15 |
| Pts | 66-50 | 62-36 |
| Total Points | 116 | 98 |
| Winners | 24 | 26 |
| %Winners | 36% | 42% |
Both Merida Aguilar and Alvarez Varona played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Merida Aguilar and Alvarez Varona have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Merida Aguilar played 3 games more than Alvarez Varona. Merida Aguilar scored 24 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Nicolas made 26 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Merida Aguilar | Alvarez Varona |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 9 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 9 |
| 1st in | 42/63 | 32/47 |
| %1st in | 67% | 68% |
| 1st pts | 24/42 | 26/32 |
| %1st pts | 57% | 81% |
| 2nd pts | 8/21 | 9/15 |
| %2nd pts | 38% | 60% |
Merida Aguilar scored 1 ace . Alvarez Varona also blasted 9 aces . Merida Aguilar won 57% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 38% of the points. On the other side, Alvarez Varona won 81% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Merida Aguilar | Alvarez Varona |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 4 |
| Converted | 7/10 | 4/13 |
| % Converted | 70% | 31% |
| Conceded | 6 | 1 |
| Saved | 2 | 1 |
| % Saved | 33% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 0 |
Merida Aguilar broke his opponent 7 times with a 70% conversion rate. Merida Aguilar dropped his serve 4 times and he saved 33% of the break points that he conceded. Nicolas broke his opponent 4 times with a 31% conversion rate. Alvarez Varona was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 1 break points.
| Merida Aguilar | |||
| Q1 Orlov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 18 | |
| pts | 66-50 | 66-50 | |
| Total points | 116 | 116 | |
| Winners | 24 | 24 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 36% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 42/63 | 42/63 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 24/42 | 24/42 | |
| % 1st pts | 57% | 57% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/21 | 8/21 | |
| % 2nd pts | 38% | 38% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 7 | 7 | |
| Converted | 7/10 | 7/10 | |
| Converted % | 70% | 70% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 6 | |
| Saved | 2/6 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 33% | 33% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 | |
| Alvarez Varona | |||
| Q1 Mazzucchelli |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 15 | |
| pts | 62-36 | 62-36 | |
| Total points | 98 | 98 | |
| Winners | 26 | 26 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 9 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 32/47 | 32/47 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 26/32 | 26/32 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/15 | 9/15 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 60% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/13 | 4/13 | |
| Converted % | 31% | 31% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLWWWLLWW
LLWLWWLWLW 
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