Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Jesper De Jong will fight against each other in the final of the Villa Maria Challenger for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 12:00 pm on CANCHA CENTRAL. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jesper De Jong who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jesper De Jong is the pick to win this match.
Jesper De Jong -> 1.52
Camilo Ugo Carabelli -> 2.4
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Prediction and head to head Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Jesper De Jong
This will be the 6th time that Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Jesper De Jong face off. The head to head is 3-2 for De Jong (see full H2H stats),but they are 2-2 on clay.
The last time that they competed against each other, De Jong won 7-6(3) 3-6 7-6(7) in the qualifications in at the Australian Open back in January 2024.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
46 - 26win/loss
108
91
WWLWWLWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 52-28 | 2-4 | 50-23 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-26 | 0-2 | 41-24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-24 | 3-4 | 36-19 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-24 | 4-2 | 39-22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 19-12 | 0-1 | 18-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 112, the Argentine reached the final after defeating Renzo Olivo 6-4 6-0, Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 4-6 6-2 6-3, Pedro Sakamoto 7-5 6-1 and Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-4 6-2.
In the semifinal, The Argentine had a good straight sets win against Manuel Cerundolo (6-4 6-2). During the match, Ugo Carabelli scored 66 points vs Manuel Cerundolo’s 57. Ugo Carabelli was quite aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Regarding the service games, Ugo Carabelli wasn’t able to score even 1 ace during the encounter and he committed only 1 double fault. Camilo Ugo Carabelli conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 2 break points. Furthermore, Ugo Carabelli put 71% of his first serves in, winning 68% (30/44) of the points behind his 1st serve and 67% (12/18) on the 2nd serve. Ugo Carabelli broke Manuel Cerundolo 3 times after converting 30% of his break points (3/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Camilo has conceded 1 set in this competition to conquer 55% of the points he played.
Ugo Carabelli has a solid win-loss record in the last 9 years having won 63% of his matches (333-194). 43-21 on clay in 2024. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Ugo Carabelli has an overall304-165 match record in the last 9 years on clay.
His best result of the season was conquering the title the Piracicaba Challenger where he overcame Federico Coria in the final 7-5 6-4 and the Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger where he beat Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco in the final 6-4 6-2.
Ugo Carabelli has a composed 45-26 win-loss record in 2024, 43-21 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Villa Maria Challenger
Jesper De Jong
46 - 23win/loss
111
103
LWWLLWWWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 48-25 | 12-5 | 33-15 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 52-23 | 19-4 | 30-14 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 24-28 | 12-7 | 10-13 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-29 | 2-6 | 27-18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 31-12 | 7-3 | 14-5 | 10-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 118, De Jong got to the final after beating Juan Bautista Torres 6-3 6-4, Tristan Boyer 7-6(4) 7-5, Hugo Dellien 5-7 6-3 6-4 and Roman Andres Burruchaga 6-2 6-3.
In the semifinal, The Dutch had a good straight sets win against Andres Burruchaga (6-2 6-3). During the match De Jong scored 58 points vs Andres Burruchaga’s 43. De Jong was very aggressive to blast 24 winners.
About the serving games, De Jong bagged 4 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Jesper De Jong lost the serve twice and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, De Jong put 48% of his first serves in, winning 83% (24/29) of the points behind his 1st serve and 38% (12/32) on the 2nd serve. De Jong broke Andres Burruchaga 5 times after converting 71% of his break points (5/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Dutch has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
His best result of the season was winning the title the Sassuolo Challenger where he defeated Daniel Altmaier in the final 7-6(5) 6-1.
Jesper has a composed 46-22 win-loss record in 2024, 33-14 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ugo Carabelli | De Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 80 | 92 |
| Pts | 282-227 | 323-272 |
| Total Points | 509 | 595 |
| Winners | 119 | 119 |
| %Winners | 42% | 37% |
Both Ugo Carabelli and De Jong played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Camilo Ugo Carabelli surrendered 1 set, while Jesper De Jong lost 1 set. Talking about their workload, Ugo Carabelli and De Jong have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Ugo Carabelli played 12 games less than De Jong. Camilo scored 119 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Dutch fired 119 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ugo Carabelli | De Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 15 | 14 |
| Avg per match | 3.8 | 3.5 |
| 1st in | 173/258 | 160/289 |
| %1st in | 67% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 119/173 | 119/160 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 48/85 | 60/129 |
| %2nd pts | 56% | 47% |
Ugo Carabelli blasted 15 aces (3.8 per match). De Jong blasted 14 aces (3.5 per match). Ugo Carabelli won 69% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, De Jong won 74% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 47% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ugo Carabelli | De Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 18 | 19 |
| Converted | 18/35 | 19/41 |
| % Converted | 51% | 46% |
| Conceded | 21 | 23 |
| Saved | 16 | 11 |
| % Saved | 76% | 48% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 12 |
Camilo broke his opponents 18 times with a 51% conversion rate. The Argentine surrendered his serve 5 times and he saved 76% of the break points that he conceded. Jesper broke his opponents 19 times with a 46% conversion rate. Jesper conceded his serve 12 times and he saved 48% of the break points that he conceded.
| Ugo Carabelli | ||||||
| R1 Olivo |
R2 Daniel Vallejo |
1/4 Sakamoto |
1/2 Manuel Cerundolo |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-0 | 4-6 6-2 6-3 | 7-5 6-1 | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 27 | 19 | 18 | 80 | |
| pts | 55-41 | 97-84 | 64-45 | 66-57 | 282-227 | |
| Total points | 96 | 181 | 109 | 123 | 509 | |
| Winners | 23 | 35 | 31 | 30 | 119 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 36% | 48% | 45% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 35/52 | 56/92 | 38/52 | 44/62 | 173/258 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 61% | 73% | 71% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 23/35 | 35/56 | 31/38 | 30/44 | 119/173 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 63% | 82% | 68% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/17 | 22/36 | 7/14 | 12/18 | 48/85 | |
| % 2nd pts | 41% | 61% | 50% | 67% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 18 | |
| Converted | 6/9 | 5/9 | 4/7 | 3/10 | 18/35 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 56% | 57% | 30% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 21 | |
| Saved | 4/6 | 10/12 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 83% | 0% | 100% | 63% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| De Jong | ||||||
| R1 Bautista Torres |
R2 Boyer |
1/4 Dellien |
1/2 Andres Burruchaga |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 7-64 7-5 | 5-7 6-3 6-4 | 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 25 | 31 | 17 | 92 | |
| pts | 65-54 | 95-81 | 105-94 | 58-43 | 323-272 | |
| Total points | 119 | 176 | 199 | 101 | 595 | |
| Winners | 26 | 32 | 37 | 24 | 119 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 34% | 35% | 41% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 33/64 | 44/66 | 54/98 | 29/61 | 160/289 | |
| % 1st in | 52% | 67% | 55% | 48% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 26/33 | 32/44 | 37/54 | 24/29 | 119/160 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 73% | 69% | 83% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/31 | 11/22 | 24/44 | 12/32 | 60/129 | |
| % 2nd pts | 42% | 50% | 55% | 38% | 47% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 5/10 | 5/16 | 5/7 | 19/41 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | 31% | 71% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 23 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 0/4 | 3/7 | 6/8 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 0% | 43% | 75% | 42% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jesper De JongDe Jong – Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli (3-2) – H2H and prediction
