Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Muchova will play each other in the quarter of the China Open for the 4^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 3:00 pm on CAPITAL GROUP DIAMOND. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.41
Karolina Muchova -> 2.91

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Karolina Muchova

This will be the 4^th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Muchova fight against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Muchova (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.

The last time that they competed against each other, Muchova won 6-7(4) 6-3 6-2 in the semifinal in Cincinnati back in 2023.

Highlights Karolina Muchova vs Aryna Sabalenka – Cincinnati 19-August-2023

Aryna Sabalenka

Ranked no. 2, Sabalenka got to the quarter after defeating Unknown Player bye, Mananchaya Sawangkaew 6-4 6-1, Ashlyn Krueger 6-2 6-2 and Madison Keys 6-4 6-3.

In the 4^th round, Aryna had a good straight sets win against Keys (6-4 6-3). During the match, Sabalenka scored 59 points vs Keys’s 43. Aryna was very aggressive to blast 26 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sabalenka scored just 1 ace and she committed only 1 double fault. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve twice. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 72% of her first serves in, winning 84% (26/31) of the points behind her 1st serve and 33% (4/12) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Keys 5 times after converting 71% of her break points (5/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Belarussian hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this tournament to win 58% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 69% of her matches (367-165). 33-6 on hard in 2024. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has an aggregate222-91 match record in the last 9 years on hard.

Her best result of the year was winning the title at the Australian Open where she beat Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Cincinnati where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 7-5 and at the U.S. Open where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 7-5.

Sabalenka has an overall 49-11 win-loss record in 2024, 33-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

Karolina Muchova

Ranked no. 49, the Czech reached the quarter after beating Anna Blinkova 6-1 6-1, Yue Yuan 6-3 6-1, Jaqueline Cristian 6-1 6-3 and Cristina Bucsa 6-2 6-0.

In the 4^th round, The Czech had a good straight sets win against Bucsa (6-2 6-0). During the match Muchova scored 64 points vs Bucsa’s 37. Karolina was extremely aggressive to blast 17 winners.

About the serving games, Muchova recorded 2 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Karolina Muchova was exceptionally effective on serve to win 94% (17/18) of her 1st serve and 61% (11/18) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Muchova broke Bucsa 5 times after converting 38% of her break points (5/13).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Czech hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 62% of the points she played.

The Czech’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in Palermo.

The Czech has an overall 16-5 win-loss record in 2024, 10-2 on hard (See FULL STATS)

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Previously in Beijing

Previously, her best result was reaching the 1^st round in 2019. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Muchova
Match played	3	4
Tot Set	6	8
Tot Games	52	60
Pts	193-138	245-152
Total Points	331	397
Winners	84	86
%Winners	44%	35%

Sabalenka played 3 matches while Muchova competed in 4 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Muchova (6 vs 8). Therefore, Sabalenka played 8 games less than Muchova. The Belarussian scored 84 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Karolina struck 86 winners (35%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Muchova
Aces	6	12
Avg per match	2	3
1st in	110/168	107/184
%1st in	65%	58%
1st pts	84/110	86/107
%1st pts	76%	80%
2nd pts	25/58	41/77
%2nd pts	43%	53%

Sabalenka scored 6 aces (2 per match). Muchova managed to score 12 aces (3 per match). Sabalenka won 76% points behind her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 43% of the points. On the other side, Muchova won 80% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Muchova
Won	14	20
Converted	14/21	20/41
% Converted	67%	49%
Conceded	8	15
Saved	4	13
% Saved	50%	87%
Times Broken	4	2

The Belarussian broke her opponents 14 times with a 67% conversion rate. The Belarussian lost her serve 4 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. The Czech broke her opponents 20 times with a 49% conversion rate. Karolina conceded her serve twice and she saved 87% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R2 Sawangkaew	R3 Krueger	R4 Keys	Total
Score	6-4 6-1	6-2 6-2	6-4 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	17	16	19	52
pts	68-48	66-47	59-43	193-138
Total points	116	113	102	331
Winners	30	28	26	84
%Winners	44%	42%	44%	44%
SERVE
Aces	3	2	1	6
Double Faults	1	3	1	5
1st in	40/64	39/61	31/43	110/168
% 1st in	63%	64%	72%	65%
1st pts	30/40	28/39	26/31	84/110
% 1st pts	75%	72%	84%	76%
2nd pts	11/24	10/22	4/12	25/58
% 2nd pts	46%	45%	33%	43%
Breaks
Won	4	5	5	14
Converted	4/7	5/7	5/7	14/21
Converted %	57%	71%	71%	67%
Conceded	4	2	2	8
Saved	3/4	1/2	0/2	4
Saved %	75%	50%	0%	42%
Times Broken	1	1	2	4

Muchova
	R1 Blinkova	R2 Yuan	R3 Cristian	R4 Bucsa	Total
Score	6-1 6-1	6-3 6-1	6-1 6-3	6-2 6-0
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	14	16	16	14	60
pts	59-29	61-46	61-40	64-37	245-152
Total points	88	107	101	101	397
Winners	22	22	25	17	86
%Winners	37%	36%	41%	27%	35%
SERVE
Aces	4	3	3	2	12
Double Faults	0	2	1	1	4
1st in	26/43	31/55	32/50	18/36	107/184
% 1st in	60%	56%	64%	50%	58%
1st pts	22/26	22/31	25/32	17/18	86/107
% 1st pts	85%	71%	78%	94%	80%
2nd pts	9/17	11/24	10/18	11/18	41/77
% 2nd pts	53%	46%	56%	61%	53%
Breaks
Won	5	5	5	5	20
Converted	5/11	5/9	5/8	5/13	20/41
Converted %	45%	56%	63%	38%	49%
Conceded	1	8	6	0	15
Saved	1/1	7/8	5/6	0/0	13
Saved %	100%	88%	83%	–	90%
Times Broken	0	1	1	0	2

Tennis Scores in Beijing

• Cori GauffGauff – Yuliia StarodubtsevaStarodubtseva (2-6 6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Paula BadosaBadosa – Shuai ZhangZhang (6-1 7-6⁴) – Stats, scores, rankings
• David PoljakPoljak – Oscar Jose GutierrezJose Gutierrez (6-4 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Patrik RiklRikl – Jan MertlMertl (7-6⁴ 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Vit KoprivaKopriva – Tomas MachacMachac (6-3 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Cori GauffGauff – Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert (2-3) – H2H and prediction