Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will face off in the final of the China Open for the 11^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 5:00 pm on CAPITAL GROUP DIAMOND. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.72
Jannik Sinner -> 2.12

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Prediction and head to head Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz

This will be the 11^th time that Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz square off. The head to head is 6-4 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 3-2 on hard.

The last time that they competed against each other, Alcaraz won 2-6 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3 in the semifinal in at the French Open back in June 2024.

Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner – French Open 07-June-2024

Jannik Sinner

Currently world no. 1 the Italian got to the final after beating Nicolas Jarry 4-6 6-3 6-1, Roman Safiullin 3-6 6-2 6-3, Jiri Lehecka 6-2 7-6(6) and Bu Yunchaokete 6-3 7-6(3).

In the semifinal, Jannik had a good straight sets win against Yunchaokete (6-3 7-6³). During the match, Sinner scored 86 points vs Yunchaokete’s 70. The Italian was extremely aggressive to blast 38 winners.

Regarding the service games, Sinner scored 11 aces and he was extremely solid in conceding no double faults. Jannik Sinner was very efficient on serve to win 73% (38/52) of his 1st serve and 68% (17/25) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Italian broke Yunchaokete once after converting 11% of his break points (1/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sinner has lost 2 set in this competition to conquer 56% of the points he played.

Sinner has a fantastic record in the last 7 years having won 74% of his matches (332-118). 34-2 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Sinner has an overall132-43 win-loss record in the last 7 years on hard.

His best result of the season was conquering the title at the Australian Open where he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final 3-6 3-6 6-4 6-4 6-3 and in Rotterdam where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 7-5 6-4 and in Miami where he overcame Grigor Dimitrov in the final 6-3 6-1 and in Halle where he overcame Hubert Hurkacz in the final 7-6(8) 7-6(2) and in Cincinnati where he overcame Frances Tiafoe in the final 7-6(4) 6-2 and at the U.S. Open where he beat Taylor Fritz in the final 6-3 6-4 7-5.

Jannik has a compiled 59-5 win-loss record in 2024, 34-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

Carlos Alcaraz

Ranked no. 3, the Spaniard reached the final after defeating Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 6-4 6-4, Tallon Griekspoor 6-1 6-2, Karen Khachanov 7-5 6-2 and Daniil Medvedev 7-5 6-3.

In the semifinal, Carlos had a good straight sets win against Medvedev (7-5 6-3). During the match Alcaraz scored 67 points vs Medvedev’s 52. Alcaraz was pretty aggressive to blast 27 winners.

About the serving games, Alcaraz managed to score 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was pretty efficient on serve to win 75% (27/36) of his 1st serve and 53% (9/17) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Carlos broke Medvedev 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Alcaraz hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.

His best result of the season was winning the title in Indian Wells where he overcame Daniil Medvedev in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he beat Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 2-6 5-7 6-1 6-2 and at the Wimbledon where he overcame Novak Djokovic in the final 6-2 6-2 7-6(4).

Carlos has a compiled 47-9 win-loss record in 2024, 18-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2023. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sinner	Alcaraz
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	10	8
Tot Games	95	76
Pts	336-268	258-190
Total Points	604	448
Winners	146	100
%Winners	43%	39%

Both Sinner and Alcaraz played 4 matches. At the moment, Jannik Sinner lost 2 sets while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set so far. Sinner has played 2 sets more than Alcaraz (10 vs 8). Therefore, Sinner played 19 games more than Alcaraz. Jannik scored 146 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, The Spaniard bagged 100 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sinner	Alcaraz
Aces	23	14
Avg per match	5.8	3.5
1st in	182/287	126/202
%1st in	63%	62%
1st pts	146/182	100/126
%1st pts	80%	79%
2nd pts	61/105	49/76
%2nd pts	58%	64%

Sinner blasted 23 aces (5.8 per match). Alcaraz bagged 14 aces (3.5 per match). Sinner won 80% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Alcaraz won 79% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 64% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sinner	Alcaraz
Won	11	15
Converted	11/34	15/32
% Converted	32%	47%
Conceded	16	7
Saved	13	4
% Saved	81%	57%
Times Broken	3	3

Sinner broke his opponents 11 times with a 32% conversion rate. Jannik surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 81% of the break points that he conceded. The Spaniard broke his opponents 15 times with a 47% conversion rate. Alcaraz conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded.

Sinner
	R1 Jarry	R2 Safiullin	1/4 Lehecka	1/2 Yunchaokete	Total
Score	4-6 6-3 6-1	3-6 6-2 6-3	6-2 7-66	6-3 7-63
Tot Set	3	3	2	2	10
Tot Games	26	26	21	22	95
pts	84-60	91-79	75-59	86-70	336-268
Total points	144	170	134	156	604
Winners	37	36	35	38	146
%Winners	44%	40%	47%	44%	43%
SERVE
Aces	1	4	7	11	23
Double Faults	1	3	3	0	7
1st in	45/66	45/77	40/67	52/77	182/287
% 1st in	68%	58%	60%	68%	63%
1st pts	37/45	36/45	35/40	38/52	146/182
% 1st pts	82%	80%	88%	73%	80%
2nd pts	14/21	15/32	15/27	17/25	61/105
% 2nd pts	67%	47%	56%	68%	58%
Breaks
Won	4	4	2	1	11
Converted	4/8	4/13	2/4	1/9	11/34
Converted %	50%	31%	50%	11%	32%
Conceded	5	6	2	3	16
Saved	4/5	4/6	2/2	3/3	13
Saved %	80%	67%	100%	100%	87%
Times Broken	1	2	0	0	3

Alcaraz
	R1 Mpetshi	R2 Griekspoor	1/4 Khachanov	1/2 Medvedev	Total
Score	6-4 6-4	6-1 6-2	7-5 6-2	7-5 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	20	15	20	21	76
pts	61-50	55-29	75-59	67-52	258-190
Total points	111	84	134	119	448
Winners	25	23	25	27	100
%Winners	41%	42%	33%	40%	39%
SERVE
Aces	5	4	2	3	14
Double Faults	1	0	2	1	4
1st in	34/56	23/41	33/52	36/53	126/202
% 1st in	61%	56%	63%	68%	62%
1st pts	25/34	23/23	25/33	27/36	100/126
% 1st pts	74%	100%	76%	75%	79%
2nd pts	18/22	9/18	13/19	9/17	49/76
% 2nd pts	82%	50%	68%	53%	64%
Breaks
Won	2	4	4	5	15
Converted	2/2	4/7	4/12	5/11	15/32
Converted %	100%	57%	33%	45%	47%
Conceded	3	0	2	2	7
Saved	3/3	0/0	1/2	0/2	4
Saved %	100%	–	50%	0%	38%
Times Broken	0	0	1	2	3

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jannik SinnerSinner – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (4-6) – H2H and prediction