Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will face off in the final of the China Open for the 11th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 5:00 pm on CAPITAL GROUP DIAMOND. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.72
Jannik Sinner -> 2.12
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Prediction and head to head Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz
This will be the 11th time that Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz square off. The head to head is 6-4 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 3-2 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Alcaraz won 2-6 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3 in the semifinal in at the French Open back in June 2024.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner – French Open 07-June-2024
Jannik Sinner
59 - 5win/loss
1
1
WWWWWWWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 71-6 | 40-3 | 11-2 | 11-0 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 64-15 | 28-7 | 8-3 | 20-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-16 | 21-6 | 15-4 | 7-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 49-22 | 22-8 | 10-6 | 17-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 20-14 | 2-6 | 7-3 | 11-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 the Italian got to the final after beating Nicolas Jarry 4-6 6-3 6-1, Roman Safiullin 3-6 6-2 6-3, Jiri Lehecka 6-2 7-6(6) and Bu Yunchaokete 6-3 7-6(3).
In the semifinal, Jannik had a good straight sets win against Yunchaokete (6-3 7-63). During the match, Sinner scored 86 points vs Yunchaokete’s 70. The Italian was extremely aggressive to blast 38 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sinner scored 11 aces and he was extremely solid in conceding no double faults. Jannik Sinner was very efficient on serve to win 73% (38/52) of his 1st serve and 68% (17/25) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Italian broke Yunchaokete once after converting 11% of his break points (1/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sinner has lost 2 set in this competition to conquer 56% of the points he played.
Sinner has a fantastic record in the last 7 years having won 74% of his matches (332-118). 34-2 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Sinner has an overall132-43 win-loss record in the last 7 years on hard.
His best result of the season was conquering the title at the Australian Open where he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final 3-6 3-6 6-4 6-4 6-3 and in Rotterdam where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 7-5 6-4 and in Miami where he overcame Grigor Dimitrov in the final 6-3 6-1 and in Halle where he overcame Hubert Hurkacz in the final 7-6(8) 7-6(2) and in Cincinnati where he overcame Frances Tiafoe in the final 7-6(4) 6-2 and at the U.S. Open where he beat Taylor Fritz in the final 6-3 6-4 7-5.
Jannik has a compiled 59-5 win-loss record in 2024, 34-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Carlos Alcaraz
47 - 9win/loss
3
1
WLWLLWLWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 39-7 | 10-0 | 29-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, the Spaniard reached the final after defeating Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 6-4 6-4, Tallon Griekspoor 6-1 6-2, Karen Khachanov 7-5 6-2 and Daniil Medvedev 7-5 6-3.
In the semifinal, Carlos had a good straight sets win against Medvedev (7-5 6-3). During the match Alcaraz scored 67 points vs Medvedev’s 52. Alcaraz was pretty aggressive to blast 27 winners.
About the serving games, Alcaraz managed to score 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was pretty efficient on serve to win 75% (27/36) of his 1st serve and 53% (9/17) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Carlos broke Medvedev 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Alcaraz hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Indian Wells where he overcame Daniil Medvedev in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he beat Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 2-6 5-7 6-1 6-2 and at the Wimbledon where he overcame Novak Djokovic in the final 6-2 6-2 7-6(4).
Carlos has a compiled 47-9 win-loss record in 2024, 18-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sinner | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 95 | 76 |
| Pts | 336-268 | 258-190 |
| Total Points | 604 | 448 |
| Winners | 146 | 100 |
| %Winners | 43% | 39% |
Both Sinner and Alcaraz played 4 matches. At the moment, Jannik Sinner lost 2 sets while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set so far. Sinner has played 2 sets more than Alcaraz (10 vs 8). Therefore, Sinner played 19 games more than Alcaraz. Jannik scored 146 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, The Spaniard bagged 100 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sinner | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 23 | 14 |
| Avg per match | 5.8 | 3.5 |
| 1st in | 182/287 | 126/202 |
| %1st in | 63% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 146/182 | 100/126 |
| %1st pts | 80% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 61/105 | 49/76 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 64% |
Sinner blasted 23 aces (5.8 per match). Alcaraz bagged 14 aces (3.5 per match). Sinner won 80% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Alcaraz won 79% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 64% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sinner | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 11 | 15 |
| Converted | 11/34 | 15/32 |
| % Converted | 32% | 47% |
| Conceded | 16 | 7 |
| Saved | 13 | 4 |
| % Saved | 81% | 57% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 |
Sinner broke his opponents 11 times with a 32% conversion rate. Jannik surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 81% of the break points that he conceded. The Spaniard broke his opponents 15 times with a 47% conversion rate. Alcaraz conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded.
| Sinner | ||||||
| R1 Jarry |
R2 Safiullin |
1/4 Lehecka |
1/2 Yunchaokete |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 6-1 | 3-6 6-2 6-3 | 6-2 7-66 | 6-3 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 26 | 21 | 22 | 95 | |
| pts | 84-60 | 91-79 | 75-59 | 86-70 | 336-268 | |
| Total points | 144 | 170 | 134 | 156 | 604 | |
| Winners | 37 | 36 | 35 | 38 | 146 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 40% | 47% | 44% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 23 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 45/66 | 45/77 | 40/67 | 52/77 | 182/287 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 58% | 60% | 68% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 37/45 | 36/45 | 35/40 | 38/52 | 146/182 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 80% | 88% | 73% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/21 | 15/32 | 15/27 | 17/25 | 61/105 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 47% | 56% | 68% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 4/13 | 2/4 | 1/9 | 11/34 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 31% | 50% | 11% | 32% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 4/6 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 67% | 100% | 100% | 87% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Alcaraz | ||||||
| R1 Mpetshi |
R2 Griekspoor |
1/4 Khachanov |
1/2 Medvedev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 6-1 6-2 | 7-5 6-2 | 7-5 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 15 | 20 | 21 | 76 | |
| pts | 61-50 | 55-29 | 75-59 | 67-52 | 258-190 | |
| Total points | 111 | 84 | 134 | 119 | 448 | |
| Winners | 25 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 100 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 42% | 33% | 40% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 34/56 | 23/41 | 33/52 | 36/53 | 126/202 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 56% | 63% | 68% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 25/34 | 23/23 | 25/33 | 27/36 | 100/126 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 100% | 76% | 75% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/22 | 9/18 | 13/19 | 9/17 | 49/76 | |
| % 2nd pts | 82% | 50% | 68% | 53% | 64% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15 | |
| Converted | 2/2 | 4/7 | 4/12 | 5/11 | 15/32 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 57% | 33% | 45% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0/2 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 100% | – | 50% | 0% | 38% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
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WLWLLWLWWW 
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