H2H, prediction of Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys in Beijing with odds, preview, pick | 2nd October 2024

PREVIEW. Beijing. Sabalenka and Keys will clash against each other in the 4th round of the China Open. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their upcoming match on Wednesday the 2nd of October

Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys

Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys will face off in the 4th round of the China Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 12:00 pm on CAPITAL GROUP DIAMOND. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.22
Madison Keys -> 4.3

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Soccer Tonic Predictions

Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys

This will be the 5th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys clash against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Sabalenka won 0-6 7-6(1) 7-6(5) in the semifinal in at the U.S. Open back in 2023.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys – U.S. Open 07-September-2023

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka

48 - 11win/loss

Hard
32-6
I Hard
0-0
Clay
15-4
Grass
1-1
Rank
2
High
1
WWWWWLWWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 54-12 38-7 15-4 0-0 1-1 0-0
2023 55-14 35-9 14-3 0-0 6-2 0-0
2022 33-22 20-15 9-5 0-0 4-2 0-0
2021 45-18 24-11 13-3 1-1 7-3 0-0
2020 29-10 14-7 6-3 9-0 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 2, Aryna got to the 4th round after beating Unknown Player bye, Mananchaya Sawangkaew 6-4 6-1 and Ashlyn Krueger 6-2 6-2.

In the 3rd round, Aryna had a good straight sets win against Krueger (6-2 6-2). During the match, Sabalenka scored 66 points vs Krueger’s 47. The Belarussian was quite aggressive to blast 28 winners.

Regarding the service games, Sabalenka struck 2 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve once and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 64% of her first serves in, winning 72% (28/39) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (10/22) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Krueger 5 times after converting 71% of her break points (5/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Aryna hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to conquer 59% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 69% of her matches (366-165). 32-6 on hard in 2024. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has a compiled221-91 match record in the last 9 years on hard.

Her best result of the year was conquering the title at the Australian Open where she beat Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Cincinnati where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 7-5 and at the U.S. Open where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 7-5.

Sabalenka has an aggregate 48-11 win-loss record in 2024, 32-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

Sabalenka
Beijing
Sabalenka's Record

Madison Keys

Madison Keys
Madison Keys

24 - 10win/loss

Hard
7-4
I Hard
0-0
Clay
13-4
Grass
4-2
Rank
20
High
7
LLWWLWWLLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 24-12 7-6 13-4 0-0 4-2 0-0
2023 33-15 19-9 5-3 0-2 9-1 0-0
2022 30-20 25-12 4-4 0-3 1-1 0-0
2021 11-15 3-9 3-4 0-0 5-2 0-0
2020 8-5 8-4 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 24, Madison reached the 4th round after defeating Unknown Player bye, Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-2 6-1 and Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-3 6-3.

In the 3rd round, Keys had a good straight sets win against Haddad Maia (6-3 6-3). During the match Keys scored 64 points vs Haddad Maia’s 50. Keys was exceptionally aggressive to blast 21 winners.

About the serving games, Keys managed to score 3 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve 3 times and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 71% of her first serves in, winning 60% (21/35) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (7/14) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Haddad Maia 6 times after converting 50% of her break points (6/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Keys hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 59% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Strasbourg where she beat Danielle Rose Collins in the final 6-1 6-2.

Keys has an aggregate 24-10 win-loss record in 2024, 7-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2016. See her history.

Keys
Beijing
Keys's Record
Bonus
Soccer Tonic Predictions

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

A.Sabalenka
M.Keys
2h:30
2h:30
Time on court​
2h:48
2h:48
1h:14
1h:14
Last match​
1h:26
1h:26
2
2
Match played
2
2
33
33
Games Played​
33
33
4
4
Set played​​
4
4
134
134
Total points​
132
132
67
67
Avg point​
66
66
58
58
Winners
52
52
29
29
Avg Winners​
26
26
43%
43%
Ratio winners
39%
39%
-- Serve --
5
5
Aces
6
6
2.5
2.5
Avg Aces
3
3
4
4
Double Faults
8
8
2
2
Avg Double Faults
4
4
58/79
58/79
1st won total​
52/73
52/73
!
73%
73%
1st won %
!
71%
71%
21/46
21/46
2nd won total​
9/25
9/25
46%
46%
2nd won %
!
36%
36%
-- Break Points --
9/14
9/14
BP won
11/25
11/25
4.5/7
4.5/7
Avg BP won
5.5/12.5
5.5/12.5
!
64%
64%
Won
44%
44%
6
6
Conceded
9
9
3
3
Avg Conceded
4.5
4.5
2
2
Broken
3
3
1
1
Avg Broken
1.5
1.5
4
4
Saved
6
6

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Sabalenka Keys
Match played 2 2
Tot Set 4 4
Tot Games 33 33
Pts 134-95 132-92
Total Points 229 224
Winners 58 52
%Winners 43% 39%

Both Sabalenka and Keys played 2 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Keys have played the same amount of sets 4. They also played the same amount of games (33). Sabalenka scored 58 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Madison recorded 52 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve Sabalenka Keys
Aces 5 6
Avg per match 2.5 3
1st in 79/125 73/98
%1st in 63% 74%
1st pts 58/79 52/73
%1st pts 73% 71%
2nd pts 21/46 9/25
%2nd pts 46% 36%

Sabalenka managed to score 5 aces (2.5 per match). Keys managed to score 6 aces (3 per match). Sabalenka won 73% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 46% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 71% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 36% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Sabalenka Keys
Won 9 11
Converted 9/14 11/25
% Converted 64% 44%
Conceded 6 9
Saved 4 6
% Saved 67% 67%
Times Broken 2 3

The Belarussian broke her opponents 9 times with a 64% conversion rate. Sabalenka lost her serve twice and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded. Keys broke her opponents 11 times with a 44% conversion rate. Madison conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
R2
Sawangkaew
R3
Krueger
Total
Score 6-4 6-1 6-2 6-2
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 17 16 33
pts 68-48 66-47 134-95
Total points 116 113 229
Winners 30 28 58
%Winners 44% 42% 43%
SERVE
Aces 3 2 5
Double Faults 1 3 4
1st in 40/64 39/61 79/125
% 1st in 63% 64% 63%
1st pts 30/40 28/39 58/79
% 1st pts 75% 72% 73%
2nd pts 11/24 10/22 21/46
% 2nd pts 46% 45% 46%
Breaks
Won 4 5 9
Converted 4/7 5/7 9/14
Converted % 57% 71% 64%
Conceded 4 2 6
Saved 3/4 1/2 4
Saved % 75% 50% 63%
Times Broken 1 1 2
Keys
R2
Sorribes Tormo
R3
Haddad Maia
Total
Score 6-2 6-1 6-3 6-3
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 15 18 33
pts 68-42 64-50 132-92
Total points 110 114 224
Winners 31 21 52
%Winners 46% 33% 39%
SERVE
Aces 3 3 6
Double Faults 5 3 8
1st in 38/49 35/49 73/98
% 1st in 78% 71% 74%
1st pts 31/38 21/35 52/73
% 1st pts 82% 60% 71%
2nd pts 2/11 7/14 9/25
% 2nd pts 18% 50% 36%
Breaks
Won 5 6 11
Converted 5/13 6/12 11/25
Converted % 38% 50% 44%
Conceded 4 5 9
Saved 4/4 2/5 6
Saved % 100% 40% 70%
Times Broken 0 3 3

Head 2 Head

Win Loss
Sabalenka
WWWWWLWWWW
Keys
LLWWLWWLLW
2024 2023 2022
54 - 12
24 - 12
38-7
Hard
7-6
15-4
Clay
13-4
1-1
Grass
4-2

Tennis Scores in Beijing

See Updated Draw
Soccer Tonic Predictions
Bonus

Upcoming matches in the draw