Ugo Humbert and Arthur Fils will fight against each other in the final of the Japan Open Tennis Championships for the 5^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 7:00 pm on COLOSSEUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Ugo Humbert who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Ugo Humbert is the pick to win this match.
Ugo Humbert -> 1.58
Arthur Fils -> 2.38

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Prediction and head to head Ugo Humbert vs. Arthur Fils

This will be the 5^th time that Ugo Humbert and Arthur Fils play each other. The head to head is 4-0 for Humbert (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Humbert won 6-2 6-2 in the 1^st round in Montreal back in August 2024.

Ugo Humbert

Ranked no. 18, Ugo got to the final after defeating Shintaro Mochizuki 6-1 6-2, Brandon Nakashima 6-3 6-2, Jack Draper 7-5 2-1 ret. and Tomas Machac 6-3 3-6 6-2.

In the semifinal, The French player defeated Machac (6-3 3-6 6-2). During the match, Humbert scored 78 points vs Machac’s 66. Ugo was quite aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Talking about the service games, Humbert made 8 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Ugo Humbert was extremely effective on serve to win 79% (31/39) of his 1st serve and 62% (21/34) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Humbert broke Machac 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The French player has dropped 1 set in this tournament to win 58% of the points he played.

Humbert has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 61% of his matches (334-213). 17-7 on hard in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Humbert has a compiled 140-73 match record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the current year was winning the title in Marseille where he overcame Grigor Dimitrov in the final 6-4 6-3 and in Dubai where he beat Alexander Bublik in the final 6-4 6-3.

The French player has an aggregate 32-20 win-loss record in 2024, 17-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Tokyo

Humbert has never competed in this tournament before.

Arthur Fils

Ranked no. 24, the French player got to the final after beating Taylor Fritz 6-4 3-6 6-3, Matteo Berrettini 6-7(5) ret., Ben Shelton 7-5 6-7(5) 7-6(2) and Holger Rune 7-6(8) 7-6(10).

In the semifinal, Arthur had a good straight sets win against Rune (7-6⁸ 7-6¹⁰).During the match Fils scored less points (3) than Rune. In fact, the world no. 18 won 90 points vs Rune’s. That means that Fils was more focused during the important points. Arthur was quite aggressive to blast 45 winners.

Talking about serving, Fils fired 5 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Arthur Fils lost the serve once and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Fils put 61% of his first serves in, winning 78% (45/58) of the points behind his 1st serve and 43% (16/37) on the 2nd serve. Arthur broke Rune once after converting 33% of his break points (1/3).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Arthur has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.

His best result of the season was winning the title the Bordeaux Challenger where he defeated Pedro Martinez Portero in the final 6-2 6-3 and in Hamburg where he beat Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 3-6 7-6(1).

The French player has an aggregate 35-23 win-loss record in 2024, 14-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Humbert	Fils
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	10	10
Tot Games	73	105
Pts	246-185	360-331
Total Points	431	691
Winners	101	162
%Winners	41%	45%

Both Humbert and Fils played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Ugo Humbert dropped 1 set, while Arthur Fils conceded 3 sets. Talking about their workload, Humbert and Fils have played the same amount of sets 10. However, Humbert played 32 games less than Fils. The French player scored 101 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Fils struck 162 winners (45%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Humbert	Fils
Aces	21	25
Avg per match	5.3	6.3
1st in	130/212	202/323
%1st in	61%	63%
1st pts	101/130	162/202
%1st pts	78%	80%
2nd pts	51/82	61/121
%2nd pts	62%	50%

Humbert scored 21 aces (5.3 per match). Fils bagged 25 aces (6.3 per match). Humbert won 78% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 62% of the points. On the other side, Fils won 80% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 50% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Humbert	Fils
Won	13	8
Converted	13/29	8/30
% Converted	45%	27%
Conceded	9	14
Saved	6	8
% Saved	67%	57%
Times Broken	3	6

The French player broke his opponents 13 times with a 45% conversion rate. Ugo dropped his serve 3 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. The French player broke his opponents 8 times with a 27% conversion rate. The French player conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded.

Humbert
	R1 Mochizuki	R2 Nakashima	1/4 Draper	1/2 Machac	Total
Score	6-1 6-2	6-3 6-2	7-5 2-1 ret.	6-3 3-6 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	2	3	9
Tot Games	15	17	15	26	73
pts	61-42	58-34	49-43	78-66	246-185
Total points	103	92	92	144	431
Winners	21	31	18	31	101
%Winners	34%	53%	37%	40%	41%
SERVE
Aces	2	7	4	8	21
Double Faults	1	0	0	2	3
1st in	28/48	35/48	28/43	39/73	130/212
% 1st in	58%	73%	65%	53%	61%
1st pts	21/28	31/35	18/28	31/39	101/130
% 1st pts	75%	89%	64%	79%	78%
2nd pts	12/20	8/13	10/15	21/34	51/82
% 2nd pts	60%	62%	67%	62%	62%
Breaks
Won	4	3	3	3	13
Converted	4/8	3/5	3/8	3/8	13/29
Converted %	50%	60%	38%	38%	45%
Conceded	2	3	3	1	9
Saved	2/2	3/3	1/3	0/1	6
Saved %	100%	100%	33%	0%	58%
Times Broken	0	0	2	1	3

Fils
	R1 Fritz	R2 Berrettini	1/4 Shelton	1/2 Rune	Total
Score	6-4 3-6 6-3	6-75 ret.	7-5 6-75 7-62	7-68 7-610
Tot Set	3	1	3	2	9
Tot Games	28	13	38	26	105
pts	88-79	45-43	137-116	90-93	360-331
Total points	167	88	253	183	691
Winners	40	17	60	45	162
%Winners	45%	38%	44%	50%	45%
SERVE
Aces	10	2	8	5	25
Double Faults	1	1	2	3	7
1st in	54/81	20/39	70/108	58/95	202/323
% 1st in	67%	51%	65%	61%	63%
1st pts	40/54	17/20	60/70	45/58	162/202
% 1st pts	74%	85%	86%	78%	80%
2nd pts	18/27	8/19	19/38	16/37	61/121
% 2nd pts	67%	42%	50%	43%	50%
Breaks
Won	2	1	4	1	8
Converted	2/5	1/3	4/19	1/3	8/30
Converted %	40%	33%	21%	33%	27%
Conceded	4	3	3	4	14
Saved	3/4	2/3	0/3	3/4	8
Saved %	75%	67%	0%	75%	54%
Times Broken	1	1	3	1	6

Upcoming matches in the draw