Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev will fight against each other in the semifinal of the China Open for the 8^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 4:00 pm on LOTUS. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.29
Daniil Medvedev -> 3.6

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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev

This will be the 8^th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev square off. The head to head is 5-2

for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on hard.

The last time that they played, Alcaraz won 6-7(1) 6-3 6-4 6-4 in the semifinal in at the Wimbledon back in July 2024.

Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev – Wimbledon 12-July-2024

Carlos Alcaraz

Ranked no. 3, the Spaniard reached the semifinal after beating Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 6-4 6-4, Tallon Griekspoor 6-1 6-2 and Karen Khachanov 7-5 6-2.

In the quarter, Alcaraz had a good straight sets win against Khachanov (7-5 6-2). During the match, Alcaraz scored 75 points vs Khachanov’s 59. Alcaraz was exceptionally aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Talking about the service games, Alcaraz struck 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 76% (25/33) of his 1st serve and 68% (13/19) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Alcaraz broke Khachanov 4 times after converting 33% of his break points (4/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Carlos hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this event to conquer 58% of the points he played.

Alcaraz has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 7 years having won 79% of his matches (279-72). 17-4 on hard in 2024. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Alcaraz has a composed92-24 win-loss record in the last 7 years on hard.

His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Indian Wells where he beat Daniil Medvedev in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he beat Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 2-6 5-7 6-1 6-2 and at the Wimbledon where he beat Novak Djokovic in the final 6-2 6-2 7-6(4).

Alcaraz has a composed 46-9 win-loss record in 2024, 17-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

Daniil Medvedev

Ranked no. 5, the Russian got to the semifinal after defeating Gael Monfils 6-3 6-4, Adrian Mannarino 7-6(6) 6-2 and Flavio Cobolli 6-2 6-4.

In the quarter, Medvedev had a good straight sets win against Cobolli (6-2 6-4). During the match Medvedev scored 73 points vs Cobolli’s 52. The Russian was pretty aggressive to blast 29 winners.

About the serving games, Medvedev bagged 5 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Daniil Medvedev lost the serve once and he saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Medvedev put 52% of his first serves in, winning 78% (29/37) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (16/34) on the 2nd serve. Daniil broke Cobolli 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Daniil hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.

The Russian’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in at the Australian Open and Indian Wells.

The Russian has an aggregate 42-16 win-loss record in 2024, 25-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

Previously, his best result was reaching the final in 2023. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Alcaraz	Medvedev
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	6	6
Tot Games	55	58
Pts	191-138	227-167
Total Points	329	394
Winners	73	88
%Winners	38%	39%

Both Alcaraz and Medvedev played 3 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Alcaraz and Medvedev have played the same amount of sets 6. However, Alcaraz played 3 games less than Medvedev. Carlos scored 73 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Daniil struck 88 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Alcaraz	Medvedev
Aces	11	15
Avg per match	3.7	5
1st in	90/149	114/203
%1st in	60%	56%
1st pts	73/90	88/114
%1st pts	81%	77%
2nd pts	40/59	44/89
%2nd pts	68%	49%

Alcaraz fired 11 aces (3.7 per match). Medvedev struck 15 aces (5 per match). Alcaraz won 81% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 68% of the points. On the other side, Medvedev won 77% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 49% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Alcaraz	Medvedev
Won	10	13
Converted	10/21	13/24
% Converted	48%	54%
Conceded	5	24
Saved	4	19
% Saved	80%	79%
Times Broken	1	5

Alcaraz broke his opponents 10 times with a 48% conversion rate. The Spaniard surrendered his serve once and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded. Medvedev broke his opponents 13 times with a 54% conversion rate. Medvedev conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
	R1 Mpetshi	R2 Griekspoor	1/4 Khachanov	Total
Score	6-4 6-4	6-1 6-2	7-5 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	20	15	20	55
pts	61-50	55-29	75-59	191-138
Total points	111	84	134	329
Winners	25	23	25	73
%Winners	41%	42%	33%	38%
SERVE
Aces	5	4	2	11
Double Faults	1	0	2	3
1st in	34/56	23/41	33/52	90/149
% 1st in	61%	56%	63%	60%
1st pts	25/34	23/23	25/33	73/90
% 1st pts	74%	100%	76%	81%
2nd pts	18/22	9/18	13/19	40/59
% 2nd pts	82%	50%	68%	68%
Breaks
Won	2	4	4	10
Converted	2/2	4/7	4/12	10/21
Converted %	100%	57%	33%	48%
Conceded	3	0	2	5
Saved	3/3	0/0	1/2	4
Saved %	100%	–	50%	50%
Times Broken	0	0	1	1

Medvedev
	R1 Monfils	R2 Mannarino	1/4 Cobolli	Total
Score	6-3 6-4	7-66 6-2	6-2 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	19	21	18	58
pts	78-55	76-60	73-52	227-167
Total points	133	136	125	394
Winners	23	36	29	88
%Winners	29%	47%	40%	39%
SERVE
Aces	2	8	5	15
Double Faults	6	6	4	16
1st in	32/64	45/68	37/71	114/203
% 1st in	50%	66%	52%	56%
1st pts	23/32	36/45	29/37	88/114
% 1st pts	72%	80%	78%	77%
2nd pts	18/32	10/23	16/34	44/89
% 2nd pts	56%	43%	47%	49%
Breaks
Won	5	4	4	13
Converted	5/10	4/6	4/8	13/24
Converted %	50%	67%	50%	54%
Conceded	6	7	11	24
Saved	4/6	5/7	10/11	19
Saved %	67%	71%	91%	76%
Times Broken	2	2	1	5

Tennis Scores in Beijing

• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
• Bu YunchaoketeYunchaokete – Andrey RublevRublev (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Flavio CobolliCobolli (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (6-2 7-6⁶) – See score progression
• Harri Heliovaara/Henry PattenHeliovaara/Henry Patten – Santiago Gonzalez/Edouard Roger-VasselinGonzalez/Edouard Roger-Vasselin (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Simone Bolelli/Andrea VavassoriBolelli/Andrea Vavassori – Alexander Bublik/Pedro Martinez PorteroBublik/Pedro Martinez Portero (6-0 7-5) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (6-2 7-6(6)) – See score progression
• Bu YunchaoketeYunchaokete – Andrey RublevRublev (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Flavio CobolliCobolli (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (7-5 6-2) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (2-5) – H2H and prediction
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Bu YunchaoketeYunchaokete (0-0) – H2H and prediction