Tomas Machac and Alex Michelsen will clash against each other in the quarter of the Japan Open Tennis Championships for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:30 pm on COLOSSEUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex Michelsen who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Alex Michelsen is the pick to win this match.
Alex Michelsen -> 1.82
Tomas Machac -> 1.99

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Prediction and head to head Tomas Machac vs. Alex Michelsen

This will be the 2^nd time that Tomas Machac and Alex Michelsen face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Machac (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.

The last time that they played, Machac won 6-3 7-6(2) in the quarter in Geneva back in May 2024.

Highlights Tomas Machac vs Alex Michelsen – Geneva 23-May-2024

Tomas Machac

Ranked no. 34, the Czech got to the quarter after beating Alexei Popyrin 6-3 6-7(5) 7-5 and Tommy Paul 2-6 6-3 7-6(4).

In the 2^nd round against Paul, Tomas recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-3 7-6⁴).During the match, Machac scored less points (7) than Paul. In fact, the world no. 34 won 103 points vs Paul’s. That means that Machac was more focused during the important points. Tomas was extremely aggressive to blast 44 winners.

Regarding the service games, Machac blasted 4 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Tomas Machac lost the serve 4 times and he saved 11 break points. Furthermore, Machac put 58% of his first serves in, winning 65% (44/68) of the points behind his 1st serve and 52% (26/50) on the 2nd serve. Tomas broke Paul 3 times after converting 30% of his break points (3/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Czech has surrendered 2 set in this event to conquer 51% of the points he played.

Machac has a solid record in the last 8 years having won 66% of his matches (249-126). 17-9 on hard in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Machac has an overall67-31 match record in the last 8 years on hard.

Tomas’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Geneva.

The Czech has a compiled 29-19 win-loss record in 2024, 17-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Tokyo

The Czech has never competed in this tournament before.

Alex Michelsen

Ranked no. 49, Michelsen got to the quarter after defeating Yasutaka Uchiyama 6-3 6-4, Borna Coric 6-3 6-3, Stefanos Tsitsipas 4-6 6-1 6-2 and Christopher O Connell 6-1 6-4.

In the 2^nd round, The American had a good straight sets win against O Connell (6-1 6-4). During the match Michelsen scored 66 points vs O Connell’s 44. The American was quite aggressive to blast 35 winners.

Talking about serving, Michelsen blasted 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Alex Michelsen was pretty effective on serve to win 73% (35/48) of his 1st serve and 64% (9/14) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Alex broke O Connell 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.

Michelsen’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Newport and Salem.

Alex has a compiled 37-28 win-loss record in 2024, 25-12 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Machac	Michelsen
Match played	2	4
Tot Set	6	9
Tot Games	64	79
Pts	217-209	269-191
Total Points	426	460
Winners	104	125
%Winners	48%	46%

Machac played 2 matches while Michelsen competed in 4 matches. Michelsen started his run from the qualifications while Machac had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Tomas Machac conceded 2 sets, while Alex Michelsen conceded 1 set. Machac has played 3 set(s) less than Michelsen (6 vs 9). Therefore, Machac played 15 games less than Michelsen. The Czech scored 104 winners (48% of the total points). On the other side, Michelsen bagged 125 winners (46%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Machac	Michelsen
Aces	14	21
Avg per match	7	5.3
1st in	139/219	164/237
%1st in	63%	69%
1st pts	104/139	125/164
%1st pts	75%	76%
2nd pts	44/80	46/73
%2nd pts	55%	63%

Machac scored 14 aces (7 per match). Michelsen managed to score 21 aces (5.3 per match). Machac won 75% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Michelsen won 76% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 63% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Machac	Michelsen
Won	5	13
Converted	5/16	13/22
% Converted	31%	59%
Conceded	19	8
Saved	15	6
% Saved	79%	75%
Times Broken	4	2

Tomas broke his opponents 5 times with a 31% conversion rate. Machac conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded. Michelsen broke his opponents 13 times with a 59% conversion rate. Michelsen conceded his serve twice and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.

Machac
	R1 Popyrin	R2 Paul	Total
Score	6-3 6-75 7-5	2-6 6-3 7-64
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	34	30	64
pts	114-99	103-110	217-209
Total points	213	213	426
Winners	60	44	104
%Winners	53%	43%	48%
SERVE
Aces	10	4	14
Double Faults	1	3	4
1st in	71/101	68/118	139/219
% 1st in	70%	58%	63%
1st pts	60/71	44/68	104/139
% 1st pts	85%	65%	75%
2nd pts	18/30	26/50	44/80
% 2nd pts	60%	52%	55%
Breaks
Won	2	3	5
Converted	2/6	3/10	5/16
Converted %	33%	30%	31%
Conceded	4	15	19
Saved	4/4	11/15	15
Saved %	100%	73%	87%
Times Broken	0	4	4

Michelsen
	Q1 Uchiyama	Q3 Coric	R1 Tsitsipas	R2 O	Total
Score	6-3 6-4	6-3 6-3	4-6 6-1 6-2	6-1 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	3	2	9
Tot Games	19	18	25	17	79
pts	59-46	64-44	80-57	66-44	269-191
Total points	105	108	137	110	460
Winners	30	28	32	35	125
%Winners	51%	44%	40%	53%	46%
SERVE
Aces	5	3	9	4	21
Double Faults	2	0	0	2	4
1st in	34/52	36/52	46/71	48/62	164/237
% 1st in	65%	69%	65%	77%	69%
1st pts	30/34	28/36	32/46	35/48	125/164
% 1st pts	88%	78%	70%	73%	76%
2nd pts	10/18	10/16	17/25	9/14	46/73
% 2nd pts	56%	63%	68%	64%	63%
Breaks
Won	2	3	5	3	13
Converted	2/5	3/7	5/5	3/5	13/22
Converted %	40%	43%	100%	60%	59%
Conceded	0	2	3	3	8
Saved	0/0	2/2	1/3	3/3	6
Saved %	–	100%	33%	100%	117%
Times Broken	0	0	2	0	2

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• Ugo HumbertHumbert – Jack DraperDraper (0-0) – H2H and prediction
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