Tomas Machac and Alex Michelsen will clash against each other in the quarter of the Japan Open Tennis Championships for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:30 pm on COLOSSEUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex Michelsen who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alex Michelsen is the pick to win this match.
Alex Michelsen -> 1.82
Tomas Machac -> 1.99
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Prediction and head to head Tomas Machac vs. Alex Michelsen
This will be the 2nd time that Tomas Machac and Alex Michelsen face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Machac (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they played, Machac won 6-3 7-6(2) in the quarter in Geneva back in May 2024.
Highlights Tomas Machac vs Alex Michelsen – Geneva 23-May-2024
Tomas Machac
29 - 19win/loss
25
25
LLWWLWLWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 37-24 | 22-11 | 9-5 | 5-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 52-27 | 15-10 | 16-11 | 18-5 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-19 | 24-6 | 5-2 | 18-10 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| 2021 | 28-19 | 5-4 | 5-4 | 12-6 | 2-3 | 4-2 |
| 2020 | 27-12 | 0-0 | 12-6 | 15-5 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 34, the Czech got to the quarter after beating Alexei Popyrin 6-3 6-7(5) 7-5 and Tommy Paul 2-6 6-3 7-6(4).
In the 2nd round against Paul, Tomas recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-3 7-64).During the match, Machac scored less points (7) than Paul. In fact, the world no. 34 won 103 points vs Paul’s. That means that Machac was more focused during the important points. Tomas was extremely aggressive to blast 44 winners.
Regarding the service games, Machac blasted 4 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Tomas Machac lost the serve 4 times and he saved 11 break points. Furthermore, Machac put 58% of his first serves in, winning 65% (44/68) of the points behind his 1st serve and 52% (26/50) on the 2nd serve. Tomas broke Paul 3 times after converting 30% of his break points (3/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Czech has surrendered 2 set in this event to conquer 51% of the points he played.
Machac has a solid record in the last 8 years having won 66% of his matches (249-126). 17-9 on hard in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Machac has an overall67-31 match record in the last 8 years on hard.
Tomas’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Geneva.
The Czech has a compiled 29-19 win-loss record in 2024, 17-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Tokyo
The Czech has never competed in this tournament before.
Alex Michelsen
37 - 28win/loss
41
41
LWWWLWLLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 42-33 | 26-14 | 4-9 | 5-4 | 7-6 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 61-27 | 30-13 | 4-3 | 19-7 | 8-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 23-10 | 14-8 | 0-1 | 9-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 49, Michelsen got to the quarter after defeating Yasutaka Uchiyama 6-3 6-4, Borna Coric 6-3 6-3, Stefanos Tsitsipas 4-6 6-1 6-2 and Christopher O Connell 6-1 6-4.
In the 2nd round, The American had a good straight sets win against O Connell (6-1 6-4). During the match Michelsen scored 66 points vs O Connell’s 44. The American was quite aggressive to blast 35 winners.
Talking about serving, Michelsen blasted 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Alex Michelsen was pretty effective on serve to win 73% (35/48) of his 1st serve and 64% (9/14) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Alex broke O Connell 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.
Michelsen’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Newport and Salem.
Alex has a compiled 37-28 win-loss record in 2024, 25-12 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Machac | Michelsen |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 64 | 79 |
| Pts | 217-209 | 269-191 |
| Total Points | 426 | 460 |
| Winners | 104 | 125 |
| %Winners | 48% | 46% |
Machac played 2 matches while Michelsen competed in 4 matches. Michelsen started his run from the qualifications while Machac had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Tomas Machac conceded 2 sets, while Alex Michelsen conceded 1 set. Machac has played 3 set(s) less than Michelsen (6 vs 9). Therefore, Machac played 15 games less than Michelsen. The Czech scored 104 winners (48% of the total points). On the other side, Michelsen bagged 125 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Machac | Michelsen |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 14 | 21 |
| Avg per match | 7 | 5.3 |
| 1st in | 139/219 | 164/237 |
| %1st in | 63% | 69% |
| 1st pts | 104/139 | 125/164 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 44/80 | 46/73 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 63% |
Machac scored 14 aces (7 per match). Michelsen managed to score 21 aces (5.3 per match). Machac won 75% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Michelsen won 76% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 63% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Machac | Michelsen |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 13 |
| Converted | 5/16 | 13/22 |
| % Converted | 31% | 59% |
| Conceded | 19 | 8 |
| Saved | 15 | 6 |
| % Saved | 79% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 |
Tomas broke his opponents 5 times with a 31% conversion rate. Machac conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded. Michelsen broke his opponents 13 times with a 59% conversion rate. Michelsen conceded his serve twice and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Machac | ||||
| R1 Popyrin |
R2 Paul |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-75 7-5 | 2-6 6-3 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 34 | 30 | 64 | |
| pts | 114-99 | 103-110 | 217-209 | |
| Total points | 213 | 213 | 426 | |
| Winners | 60 | 44 | 104 | |
| %Winners | 53% | 43% | 48% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 10 | 4 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 71/101 | 68/118 | 139/219 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 58% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 60/71 | 44/68 | 104/139 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 65% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/30 | 26/50 | 44/80 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 52% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 3/10 | 5/16 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 30% | 31% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 15 | 19 | |
| Saved | 4/4 | 11/15 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 73% | 87% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 4 | 4 | |
| Michelsen | ||||||
| Q1 Uchiyama |
Q3 Coric |
R1 Tsitsipas |
R2 O |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 6-3 | 4-6 6-1 6-2 | 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 18 | 25 | 17 | 79 | |
| pts | 59-46 | 64-44 | 80-57 | 66-44 | 269-191 | |
| Total points | 105 | 108 | 137 | 110 | 460 | |
| Winners | 30 | 28 | 32 | 35 | 125 | |
| %Winners | 51% | 44% | 40% | 53% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 5 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 21 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 34/52 | 36/52 | 46/71 | 48/62 | 164/237 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 69% | 65% | 77% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 30/34 | 28/36 | 32/46 | 35/48 | 125/164 | |
| % 1st pts | 88% | 78% | 70% | 73% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/18 | 10/16 | 17/25 | 9/14 | 46/73 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 63% | 68% | 64% | 63% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 13 | |
| Converted | 2/5 | 3/7 | 5/5 | 3/5 | 13/22 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 43% | 100% | 60% | 59% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 2/2 | 1/3 | 3/3 | 6 | |
| Saved % | – | 100% | 33% | 100% | 117% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
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