Roberto Carballes Baena and Pavel Kotov will face off in the qualifications of the China Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 11:00 am on BRAD DREWETT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pavel Kotov who should win in 3 sets.
Pavel Kotov -> 1.71
Roberto Carballes Baena -> 2.04
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Prediction and head to head Roberto Carballes Baena vs. Pavel Kotov
This will be the 3rd time that Roberto Carballes Baena and Pavel Kotov fight against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Carballes Baena (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Carballes Baena won 6-4 6-2 in the semifinal in Marrakech back in April 2024.
Highlights Roberto Carballes Baena vs Pavel Kotov – Marrakech 06-April-2024
Roberto Carballes Baena
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-31 | 10-12 | 24-13 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 25-29 | 3-8 | 19-14 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 46-33 | 3-8 | 41-23 | 2-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 41-30 | 3-5 | 33-20 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 53, the Spaniard reached the qualifications after defeating Rigele Te 6-3 6-3.
In the qualifications, Carballes Baena had a good straight sets win against Te (6-3 6-3). During the match, Carballes Baena scored 65 points vs Te’s 46. The Spaniard was quite aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Regarding the service games, Carballes Baena bagged 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Roberto Carballes Baena was pretty efficient on serve to win 77% (23/30) of his 1st serve and 76% (16/21) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Carballes Baena broke Te 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Carballes Baena has good match record in the last 10 years having won 56% of his matches (378-294). 8-9 on hard in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Carballes Baena has a composed 33-54 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title the Braunschweig Challenger where he beat Botic Van De Zandschulp in the final 6-1 6-3 and the Seville Challenger where he beat Daniel Altmaier in the final 6-3 7-5.
The Spaniard has an aggregate 33-24 win-loss record in 2024, 8-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Carballes Baena has never competed in this tournament before.
Pavel Kotov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 20-25 | 9-11 | 11-9 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 45-32 | 13-14 | 20-12 | 9-2 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-20 | 5-3 | 20-9 | 12-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 29-25 | 5-5 | 7-11 | 17-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 63, Kotov reached the qualifications after defeating Sumit Nagal 6-2 7-6(5).
In the qualifications, Kotov had a good straight sets win against Nagal (6-2 7-65). During the match Kotov scored 80 points vs Nagal’s 67. The Russian was extremely aggressive to blast 34 winners.
Talking about serving, Kotov recorded 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Pavel Kotov lost the serve twice and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Kotov put 58% of his first serves in, winning 68% (34/50) of the points behind his 1st serve and 53% (19/36) on the 2nd serve. Pavel broke Nagal 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).
Pavel’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Marrakech.
The Russian has an overall 18-19 win-loss record in 2024, 7-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Carballes Baena | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 18 | 21 |
| Pts | 65-46 | 80-67 |
| Total Points | 111 | 147 |
| Winners | 23 | 34 |
| %Winners | 35% | 43% |
Both Carballes Baena and Kotov played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Carballes Baena and Kotov have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Carballes Baena played 3 games less than Kotov. Roberto scored 23 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian bagged 34 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Carballes Baena | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 4 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 4 |
| 1st in | 30/51 | 50/86 |
| %1st in | 59% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 23/30 | 34/50 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 68% |
| 2nd pts | 16/21 | 19/36 |
| %2nd pts | 76% | 53% |
Carballes Baena managed to score 2 aces . Kotov made 4 aces . Carballes Baena won 77% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 76% of the points. On the other side, Kotov won 68% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Carballes Baena | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 4 |
| Converted | 3/7 | 4/5 |
| % Converted | 43% | 80% |
| Conceded | 1 | 7 |
| Saved | 1 | 5 |
| % Saved | 100% | 71% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 |
The Spaniard broke his opponent 3 times with a 43% conversion rate. The Spaniard pretty solid on his serve as he has never lost a single service game after saving 1 break points. Kotov broke his opponent 4 times with a 80% conversion rate. Kotov conceded his serve twice and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.
| Carballes Baena | |||
| Q1 Te | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 18 | |
| pts | 65-46 | 65-46 | |
| Total points | 111 | 111 | |
| Winners | 23 | 23 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 30/51 | 30/51 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 23/30 | 23/30 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/21 | 16/21 | |
| % 2nd pts | 76% | 76% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 3/7 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Kotov | |||
| Q1 Nagal | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 7-65 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 21 | |
| pts | 80-67 | 80-67 | |
| Total points | 147 | 147 | |
| Winners | 34 | 34 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 50/86 | 50/86 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 34/50 | 34/50 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/36 | 19/36 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 53% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/5 | 4/5 | |
| Converted % | 80% | 80% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 71% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
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