Luca Nardi and Sho Shimabukuro will clash against each other in the semifinal of the Guangzhou Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 2:00 pm on Court 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Luca Nardi who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Luca Nardi is the pick to win this match.
Luca Nardi -> 1.66
Sho Shimabukuro -> 2.14
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Prediction and head to head Luca Nardi vs. Sho Shimabukuro
This will be the 2nd time that Luca Nardi and Sho Shimabukuro face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Shimabukuro (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.
The last time that they played, Shimabukuro won 6-2 6-2 in the semifinal in the Kobe Challenger back in 2023.
Luca Nardi
21 - 20win/loss
110
70
LLWWWWLLLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26-27 | 13-14 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-36 | 20-10 | 8-13 | 12-12 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-20 | 5-2 | 11-10 | 17-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-24 | 3-3 | 26-13 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 9-9 | 7-2 | 1-2 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 90, Nardi reached the semifinal after beating Jie Cui 6-4 3-6 7-6(4), Kris Van Wyk 6-2 7-6(4) and Marc Polmans 6-4 6-3.
In the quarter, Luca had a good straight sets win against Polmans (6-4 6-3). During the match, Nardi scored 65 points vs Polmans’s 52. The Italian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Regarding the service games, Nardi scored 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Luca Nardi was pretty efficient on serve to win 71% (25/35) of his 1st serve and 76% (16/21) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Italian broke Polmans 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has dropped 1 set in this event to win 53% of the points he played.
Nardi has a winning record in the last 7 years having won 56% of his matches (142-112). 12-9 on hard in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Nardi has an overall47-26 match record in the last 7 years on hard.
His best result of the year was winning the title the Naples Challenger where he beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the final 5-7 7-6(3) 6-2.
Luca has an aggregate 21-19 win-loss record in 2024, 12-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Guangzhou Challenger
Luca has never competed in this tournament before.
Sho Shimabukuro
25 - 21win/loss
193
135
LWWLWLWLLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 29-26 | 20-15 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-26 | 19-17 | 7-1 | 9-4 | 8-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-25 | 38-20 | 0-2 | 4-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 31-20 | 28-18 | 0-0 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 4-5 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 196, Shimabukuro got to the semifinal after beating Maxime Cressy 7-6(10) 6-3, Yan Bai 3-6 7-6(3) 0-1 ret. and Terence Atmane 7-6(10) 5-7 7-5.
In the quarter, The Japanese defeated Atmane (7-610 5-7 7-5).During the match Shimabukuro scored less points (4) than Atmane. In fact, the world no. 90 won 118 points vs Atmane’s. That means that Shimabukuro was more focused during the important points. Shimabukuro was extremely aggressive to blast 56 winners.
Talking about serving, Shimabukuro made 10 aces and he committed only 7 double faults. Overall, Sho Shimabukuro was exceptionally effective on serve to win 79% (56/71) of his 1st serve and 54% (31/57) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Shimabukuro broke Atmane twice after converting 67% of his break points (2/3).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Shimabukuro has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 50% of the points he played.
His best result of the season was winning the title the Shanghai Challenger where he defeated Yu Hsiou Hsu in the final 6-4 6-4.
Shimabukuro has a compiled 24-21 win-loss record in 2024, 17-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Nardi | Shimabukuro |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 72 | 82 |
| Pts | 257-228 | 263-275 |
| Total Points | 485 | 538 |
| Winners | 100 | 117 |
| %Winners | 39% | 44% |
Both Nardi and Shimabukuro played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Luca Nardi conceded 1 set, while Sho Shimabukuro lost 3 sets. Nardi has played 2 set(s) less than Shimabukuro (7 vs 9). Therefore, Nardi played 10 games less than Shimabukuro. Nardi scored 100 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Shimabukuro blasted 117 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Nardi | Shimabukuro |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 14 | 24 |
| Avg per match | 4.7 | 8 |
| 1st in | 134/224 | 158/279 |
| %1st in | 60% | 57% |
| 1st pts | 100/134 | 117/158 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 51/90 | 73/121 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 60% |
Nardi recorded 14 aces (4.7 per match). Shimabukuro scored 24 aces (8 per match). Nardi won 75% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Shimabukuro won 74% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Nardi | Shimabukuro |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 4 |
| Converted | 10/24 | 4/10 |
| % Converted | 42% | 40% |
| Conceded | 16 | 13 |
| Saved | 11 | 9 |
| % Saved | 69% | 69% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 4 |
Luca broke his opponents 10 times with a 42% conversion rate. Nardi surrendered his serve 5 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded. Shimabukuro broke his opponents 4 times with a 40% conversion rate. Shimabukuro conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded.
| Nardi | |||||
| R1 Cui |
R2 Van |
1/4 Polmans |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 3-6 7-64 | 6-2 7-64 | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 21 | 19 | 72 | |
| pts | 117-114 | 75-62 | 65-52 | 257-228 | |
| Total points | 231 | 137 | 117 | 485 | |
| Winners | 44 | 31 | 25 | 100 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 41% | 38% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 7 | 2 | 5 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 56/100 | 43/68 | 35/56 | 134/224 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 63% | 63% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 44/56 | 31/43 | 25/35 | 100/134 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 72% | 71% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/44 | 14/25 | 16/21 | 51/90 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 56% | 76% | 57% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | |
| Converted | 3/9 | 4/8 | 3/7 | 10/24 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 50% | 43% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 9 | 1 | 16 | |
| Saved | 3/6 | 7/9 | 1/1 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 78% | 100% | 76% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Shimabukuro | |||||
| R1 Cressy |
R2 Bai |
1/4 Atmane |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-610 6-3 | 3-6 7-63 0-1 ret. | 7-610 5-7 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 23 | 37 | 82 | |
| pts | 68-65 | 77-88 | 118-122 | 263-275 | |
| Total points | 133 | 165 | 240 | 538 | |
| Winners | 35 | 26 | 56 | 117 | |
| %Winners | 51% | 34% | 47% | 44% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 7 | 7 | 10 | 24 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 46/74 | 41/77 | 71/128 | 158/279 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 53% | 55% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 35/46 | 26/41 | 56/71 | 117/158 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 63% | 79% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/28 | 21/36 | 31/57 | 73/121 | |
| % 2nd pts | 75% | 58% | 54% | 60% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Converted | 1/2 | 1/5 | 2/3 | 4/10 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 20% | 67% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 8 | 5 | 13 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 6/8 | 3/5 | 9 | |
| Saved % | – | 75% | 60% | 45% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWWWLLLL
LWWLWLWLLW Tennis Scores in Guangzhou Challenger
- Francis Casey Alcantara/Pruchya IsarowCasey Alcantara/Pruchya Isarow – Rithvik Choudary Bollipalli/Arjun KadheChoudary Bollipalli/Arjun Kadhe (1-6 7-65 11-9) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Evan King/Reese StalderKing/Reese Stalder – Blake Bayldon/Thomas FancuttBayldon/Thomas Fancutt (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Christopher O ConnellO Connell – Mikhail KukushkinKukushkin (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
