Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula will fight against each other in the final of the U.S. Open for the 8^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 4:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.36
Jessica Pegula -> 3.25

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula

This will be the 8^th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula fight against each other. The head to head is 5-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats),but they are 2-2 on hard.

The last time that they played, Sabalenka won 6-3 7-5 in the final in Cincinnati back in August 2024.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula – Cincinnati 19-August-2024

Aryna Sabalenka

Ranked no. 2, the Belarussian reached the final after defeating Priscilla Hon 6-3 6-3, Lucia Bronzetti 6-3 6-1, Ekaterina Alexandrova 2-6 6-1 6-2, Elise Mertens 6-2 6-4, Qinwen Zheng 6-1 6-2 and Emma Navarro 6-3 7-6(2).

In the semifinal, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Navarro (6-3 7-6²). During the match, Sabalenka scored 72 points vs Navarro’s 60. Sabalenka was very aggressive to blast 35 winners.

Regarding the service games, Sabalenka recorded 8 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve twice and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 68% of her first serves in, winning 74% (35/47) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (10/22) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Navarro 3 times after converting 50% of her break points (3/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Aryna has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to win 57% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 69% of her matches (363-165). 29-6 on hard in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has a compiled218-91 match record in the last 9 years on hard.

Her best result of the current season was conquering the title at the Australian Open where she beat Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Cincinnati where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 7-5.

Sabalenka has a composed 45-11 win-loss record in 2024, 29-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Jessica Pegula

Ranked no. 6, Pegula reached the final after defeating Shelby Rogers 6-4 6-3, Sofia Kenin 7-6(4) 6-3, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 6-3, Diana Shnaider 6-4 6-2, Iga Swiatek 6-2 6-4 and Karolina Muchova 1-6 6-4 6-2.

In the semifinal against Muchova, Jessica recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 6-4 6-2). During the match Pegula and Muchova scored the same amount of points (87). However, the world no. 2 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Jessica was pretty aggressive to blast 34 winners.

About the serving games, Pegula scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Jessica Pegula lost the serve 4 times and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Pegula put 67% of her first serves in, winning 58% (34/59) of the points behind her 1st serve and 52% (15/29) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Muchova 5 times after converting 38% of her break points (5/13).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Jessica has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current year was conquering the title in Berlin where she beat Anna Kalinskaya in the final 6-7(0) 6-4 7-6(3) and in Toronto where she defeated Amanda Anisimova in the final 6-3 2-6 6-1.

Pegula has an overall 36-11 win-loss record in 2024, 26-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2022. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Pegula
Match played	6	6
Tot Set	13	13
Tot Games	112	120
Pts	406-305	435-361
Total Points	711	796
Winners	172	177
%Winners	42%	41%

Both Sabalenka and Pegula played 6 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka dropped 1 set, while Jessica Pegula surrendered 1 set. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Pegula have played the same amount of sets 13. However, Sabalenka played 8 games less than Pegula. Sabalenka scored 172 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Pegula fired 177 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Pegula
Aces	30	19
Avg per match	5	3.2
1st in	236/364	247/401
%1st in	65%	62%
1st pts	172/236	177/247
%1st pts	73%	72%
2nd pts	72/128	75/154
%2nd pts	56%	49%

Sabalenka struck 30 aces (5 per match). Pegula scored 19 aces (3.2 per match). Sabalenka won 73% points on her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Pegula won 72% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Pegula
Won	23	25
Converted	23/49	25/53
% Converted	47%	47%
Conceded	27	40
Saved	21	28
% Saved	78%	70%
Times Broken	6	12

The Belarussian broke her opponents 23 times with a 47% conversion rate. The Belarussian dropped her serve 6 times and she saved 78% of the break points that she conceded. Pegula broke her opponents 25 times with a 47% conversion rate. Jessica conceded her serve 12 times and she saved 70% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R1 Hon	R2 Bronzetti	R3 Alexandrova	R4 Mertens	1/4 Zheng	1/2 Navarro	Total
Score	6-3 6-3	6-3 6-1	2-6 6-1 6-2	6-2 6-4	6-1 6-2	6-3 7-62
Tot Set	2	2	3	2	2	2	13
Tot Games	18	16	23	18	15	22	112
pts	65-48	55-34	80-65	74-57	60-41	72-60	406-305
Total points	113	89	145	131	101	132	711
Winners	26	23	31	27	30	35	172
%Winners	40%	42%	39%	36%	50%	49%	42%
SERVE
Aces	3	5	5	6	3	8	30
Double Faults	0	1	4	2	3	5	15
1st in	36/60	30/41	45/72	37/64	41/58	47/69	236/364
% 1st in	60%	73%	63%	58%	71%	68%	65%
1st pts	26/36	23/30	31/45	27/37	30/41	35/47	172/236
% 1st pts	72%	77%	69%	73%	73%	74%	73%
2nd pts	14/24	9/11	14/27	16/27	9/17	10/22	72/128
% 2nd pts	58%	82%	52%	59%	53%	45%	56%
Breaks
Won	4	4	5	3	4	3	23
Converted	4/7	4/8	5/14	3/6	4/8	3/6	23/49
Converted %	57%	50%	36%	50%	50%	50%	47%
Conceded	6	0	7	8	1	5	27
Saved	5/6	0/0	4/7	8/8	1/1	3/5	21
Saved %	83%	–	57%	100%	100%	60%	67%
Times Broken	1	0	3	0	0	2	6

Pegula
	R1 Rogers	R2 Kenin	R3 Bouzas	R4 Shnaider	1/4 Swiatek	1/2 Muchova	Total
Score	6-4 6-3	7-64 6-3	6-3 6-3	6-4 6-2	6-2 6-4	1-6 6-4 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	2	3	13
Tot Games	19	22	18	18	18	25	120
pts	67-57	75-64	67-42	74-62	65-49	87-87	435-361
Total points	124	139	109	136	114	174	796
Winners	33	30	25	28	27	34	177
%Winners	49%	40%	37%	38%	42%	39%	41%
SERVE
Aces	3	6	3	6	0	1	19
Double Faults	3	2	3	2	1	1	12
1st in	44/74	46/70	28/49	35/66	35/54	59/88	247/401
% 1st in	59%	66%	57%	53%	65%	67%	62%
1st pts	33/44	30/46	25/28	28/35	27/35	34/59	177/247
% 1st pts	75%	65%	89%	80%	77%	58%	72%
2nd pts	13/30	13/24	12/21	12/31	10/19	15/29	75/154
% 2nd pts	43%	54%	57%	39%	53%	52%	49%
Breaks
Won	3	4	4	5	4	5	25
Converted	3/6	4/7	4/9	5/10	4/8	5/13	25/53
Converted %	50%	57%	44%	50%	50%	38%	47%
Conceded	6	7	4	9	3	11	40
Saved	5/6	4/7	3/4	7/9	2/3	7/11	28
Saved %	83%	57%	75%	78%	67%	64%	71%
Times Broken	1	3	1	2	1	4	12

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Lyudmyla Kichenok/Jelena OstapenkoKichenok/Jelena Ostapenko – Kristina Mladenovic/Shuai ZhangMladenovic/Shuai Zhang (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Juan Ignacio GalarzaIgnacio Galarza – Johan NiklesNikles (6-3 7-6⁷) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jessica PegulaPegula – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (2-5) – H2H and prediction