Jessica Pegula and Karolina Muchova will clash against each other in the semifinal of the U.S. Open for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 9:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.68
Karolina Muchova -> 2.24

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Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Karolina Muchova

This will be the 2^nd time that Jessica Pegula and Karolina Muchova play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Pegula (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Pegula won 5-7 6-4 6-2 in the 2^nd round in Cincinnati back in August 2024.

Jessica Pegula

Ranked no. 6, Jessica reached the semifinal after defeating Shelby Rogers 6-4 6-3, Sofia Kenin 7-6(4) 6-3, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 6-3, Diana Shnaider 6-4 6-2 and Iga Swiatek 6-2 6-4.

In the quarter, Pegula had a good straight sets win against Swiatek (6-2 6-4). During the match, Pegula scored 65 points vs Swiatek’s 49. Pegula was extremely aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Talking about the service games, Pegula couldn’t to score even 1 ace in the match and she committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Jessica Pegula was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 77% (27/35) of her 1st serve and 53% (10/19) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Jessica broke Swiatek 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Pegula hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to win 56% of the points she played.

Pegula has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 65% of her matches (333-176). 25-6 on hard in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Pegula has a composed 211-96 record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the year was conquering the title in Berlin where she beat Anna Kalinskaya in the final 6-7(0) 6-4 7-6(3) and in Toronto where she beat Amanda Anisimova in the final 6-3 2-6 6-1.

The American has a compiled 35-11 win-loss record in 2024, 25-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Karolina Muchova

Ranked no. 52, the Czech got to the semifinal after defeating Katie Volynets 6-3 7-5, Naomi Osaka 6-3 7-6(5), Anastasia Potapova 6-4 6-2, Jasmine Paolini 6-3 6-3 and Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-1 6-4.

In the quarter, The Czech had a good straight sets win against Haddad Maia (6-1 6-4). During the match Muchova scored 59 points vs Haddad Maia’s 43. Karolina was very aggressive to blast 29 winners.

Talking about serving, Muchova blasted 2 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Karolina Muchova lost the serve once and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Muchova put 76% of her first serves in, winning 78% (29/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 42% (5/12) on the 2nd serve. Karolina broke Haddad Maia 4 times after converting 33% of her break points (4/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Karolina hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.

Karolina’s best result of the season was getting to the final in Palermo.

Muchova has a composed 12-4 win-loss record in 2024, 6-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2023. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Pegula	Muchova
Match played	5	5
Tot Set	10	10
Tot Games	95	96
Pts	348-274	327-245
Total Points	622	572
Winners	143	133
%Winners	41%	41%

Both Pegula and Muchova played 5 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Pegula and Muchova have played the same amount of sets 10. However, Pegula played 1 game less than Muchova. Pegula scored 143 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Karolina fired 133 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Pegula	Muchova
Aces	18	22
Avg per match	3.6	4.4
1st in	188/313	173/265
%1st in	60%	65%
1st pts	143/188	133/173
%1st pts	76%	77%
2nd pts	60/125	55/92
%2nd pts	48%	60%

Pegula made 18 aces (3.6 per match). Muchova blasted 22 aces (4.4 per match). Pegula won 76% points behind her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Muchova won 77% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 60% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Pegula	Muchova
Won	20	19
Converted	20/40	19/40
% Converted	50%	48%
Conceded	29	17
Saved	21	11
% Saved	72%	65%
Times Broken	8	6

Jessica broke her opponents 20 times with a 50% conversion rate. Pegula conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 72% of the break points that she conceded. Karolina broke her opponents 19 times with a 48% conversion rate. Karolina conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 65% of the break points that she conceded.

Pegula
	R1 Rogers	R2 Kenin	R3 Bouzas	R4 Shnaider	1/4 Swiatek	Total
Score	6-4 6-3	7-64 6-3	6-3 6-3	6-4 6-2	6-2 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	2	10
Tot Games	19	22	18	18	18	95
pts	67-57	75-64	67-42	74-62	65-49	348-274
Total points	124	139	109	136	114	622
Winners	33	30	25	28	27	143
%Winners	49%	40%	37%	38%	42%	41%
SERVE
Aces	3	6	3	6	0	18
Double Faults	3	2	3	2	1	11
1st in	44/74	46/70	28/49	35/66	35/54	188/313
% 1st in	59%	66%	57%	53%	65%	60%
1st pts	33/44	30/46	25/28	28/35	27/35	143/188
% 1st pts	75%	65%	89%	80%	77%	76%
2nd pts	13/30	13/24	12/21	12/31	10/19	60/125
% 2nd pts	43%	54%	57%	39%	53%	48%
Breaks
Won	3	4	4	5	4	20
Converted	3/6	4/7	4/9	5/10	4/8	20/40
Converted %	50%	57%	44%	50%	50%	50%
Conceded	6	7	4	9	3	29
Saved	5/6	4/7	3/4	7/9	2/3	21
Saved %	83%	57%	75%	78%	67%	72%
Times Broken	1	3	1	2	1	8

Muchova
	R1 Volynets	R2 Osaka	R3 Potapova	R4 Paolini	1/4 Haddad Maia	Total
Score	6-3 7-5	6-3 7-65	6-4 6-2	6-3 6-3	6-1 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	2	10
Tot Games	21	22	18	18	17	96
pts	73-59	73-62	64-42	58-39	59-43	327-245
Total points	132	135	106	97	102	572
Winners	24	36	21	23	29	133
%Winners	33%	49%	33%	40%	49%	41%
SERVE
Aces	2	7	8	3	2	22
Double Faults	3	1	1	0	2	7
1st in	35/65	47/59	26/48	28/44	37/49	173/265
% 1st in	54%	80%	54%	64%	76%	65%
1st pts	24/35	36/47	21/26	23/28	29/37	133/173
% 1st pts	69%	77%	81%	82%	78%	77%
2nd pts	16/30	7/12	16/22	11/16	5/12	55/92
% 2nd pts	53%	58%	73%	69%	42%	60%
Breaks
Won	5	3	3	4	4	19
Converted	5/7	3/7	3/7	4/7	4/12	19/40
Converted %	71%	43%	43%	57%	33%	48%
Conceded	6	3	2	3	3	17
Saved	3/6	2/3	2/2	2/3	2/3	11
Saved %	50%	67%	100%	67%	67%	70%
Times Broken	3	1	0	1	1	6

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Kristina Mladenovic/Shuai ZhangMladenovic/Shuai Zhang – Katerina Siniakova/Taylor TownsendSiniakova/Taylor Townsend (7-5 4-6 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Lyudmyla Kichenok/Jelena OstapenkoKichenok/Jelena Ostapenko – Hao-Ching Chan/Veronika KudermetovaChan/Veronika Kudermetova (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Juan Ignacio GalarzaIgnacio Galarza – Juan Pablo Grassi MazzuchiPablo Grassi Mazzuchi (6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Johan NiklesNikles – Nikolas Sanchez-IzquierdoSanchez-Izquierdo (6-0 3-6 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jessica PegulaPegula – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Emma NavarroNavarro – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (1-1) – H2H and prediction