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Jessica Pegula and Karolina Muchova will clash against each other in the semifinal of the U.S. Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 9:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.68
Karolina Muchova -> 2.24
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Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Karolina Muchova
This will be the 2nd time that Jessica Pegula and Karolina Muchova play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Pegula (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Pegula won 5-7 6-4 6-2 in the 2nd round in Cincinnati back in August 2024.
Jessica Pegula
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 8-4 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 39-16 | 29-9 | 4-2 | 0-2 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
2023 | 59-18 | 45-12 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
2022 | 42-21 | 28-15 | 11-4 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
2021 | 39-19 | 29-12 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, Jessica reached the semifinal after defeating Shelby Rogers 6-4 6-3, Sofia Kenin 7-6(4) 6-3, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 6-3, Diana Shnaider 6-4 6-2 and Iga Swiatek 6-2 6-4.
In the quarter, Pegula had a good straight sets win against Swiatek (6-2 6-4). During the match, Pegula scored 65 points vs Swiatek’s 49. Pegula was extremely aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Talking about the service games, Pegula couldn’t to score even 1 ace in the match and she committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Jessica Pegula was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 77% (27/35) of her 1st serve and 53% (10/19) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Jessica broke Swiatek 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Pegula hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to win 56% of the points she played.
Pegula has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 65% of her matches (333-176). 25-6 on hard in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Pegula has a composed 211-96 record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the year was conquering the title in Berlin where she beat Anna Kalinskaya in the final 6-7(0) 6-4 7-6(3) and in Toronto where she beat Amanda Anisimova in the final 6-3 2-6 6-1.
The American has a compiled 35-11 win-loss record in 2024, 25-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Karolina Muchova
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 9-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 21-7 | 15-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
2023 | 38-13 | 28-9 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
2022 | 11-12 | 3-2 | 3-3 | 5-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
2021 | 19-9 | 10-4 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 52, the Czech got to the semifinal after defeating Katie Volynets 6-3 7-5, Naomi Osaka 6-3 7-6(5), Anastasia Potapova 6-4 6-2, Jasmine Paolini 6-3 6-3 and Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-1 6-4.
In the quarter, The Czech had a good straight sets win against Haddad Maia (6-1 6-4). During the match Muchova scored 59 points vs Haddad Maia’s 43. Karolina was very aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about serving, Muchova blasted 2 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Karolina Muchova lost the serve once and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Muchova put 76% of her first serves in, winning 78% (29/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 42% (5/12) on the 2nd serve. Karolina broke Haddad Maia 4 times after converting 33% of her break points (4/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Karolina hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.
Karolina’s best result of the season was getting to the final in Palermo.
Muchova has a composed 12-4 win-loss record in 2024, 6-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
Points | Pegula | Muchova |
---|---|---|
Match played | 5 | 5 |
Tot Set | 10 | 10 |
Tot Games | 95 | 96 |
Pts | 348-274 | 327-245 |
Total Points | 622 | 572 |
Winners | 143 | 133 |
%Winners | 41% | 41% |
Both Pegula and Muchova played 5 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Pegula and Muchova have played the same amount of sets 10. However, Pegula played 1 game less than Muchova. Pegula scored 143 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Karolina fired 133 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
Serve | Pegula | Muchova |
---|---|---|
Aces | 18 | 22 |
Avg per match | 3.6 | 4.4 |
1st in | 188/313 | 173/265 |
%1st in | 60% | 65% |
1st pts | 143/188 | 133/173 |
%1st pts | 76% | 77% |
2nd pts | 60/125 | 55/92 |
%2nd pts | 48% | 60% |
Pegula made 18 aces (3.6 per match). Muchova blasted 22 aces (4.4 per match). Pegula won 76% points behind her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Muchova won 77% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 60% of the points.
How they played the important points
Breaks | Pegula | Muchova |
---|---|---|
Won | 20 | 19 |
Converted | 20/40 | 19/40 |
% Converted | 50% | 48% |
Conceded | 29 | 17 |
Saved | 21 | 11 |
% Saved | 72% | 65% |
Times Broken | 8 | 6 |
Jessica broke her opponents 20 times with a 50% conversion rate. Pegula conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 72% of the break points that she conceded. Karolina broke her opponents 19 times with a 48% conversion rate. Karolina conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 65% of the break points that she conceded.
Pegula | |||||||
R1 Rogers |
R2 Kenin |
R3 Bouzas |
R4 Shnaider |
1/4 Swiatek |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-4 6-3 | 7-64 6-3 | 6-3 6-3 | 6-4 6-2 | 6-2 6-4 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
Tot Games | 19 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 95 | |
pts | 67-57 | 75-64 | 67-42 | 74-62 | 65-49 | 348-274 | |
Total points | 124 | 139 | 109 | 136 | 114 | 622 | |
Winners | 33 | 30 | 25 | 28 | 27 | 143 | |
%Winners | 49% | 40% | 37% | 38% | 42% | 41% | |
SERVE | |||||||
Aces | 3 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 18 | |
Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | |
1st in | 44/74 | 46/70 | 28/49 | 35/66 | 35/54 | 188/313 | |
% 1st in | 59% | 66% | 57% | 53% | 65% | 60% | |
1st pts | 33/44 | 30/46 | 25/28 | 28/35 | 27/35 | 143/188 | |
% 1st pts | 75% | 65% | 89% | 80% | 77% | 76% | |
2nd pts | 13/30 | 13/24 | 12/21 | 12/31 | 10/19 | 60/125 | |
% 2nd pts | 43% | 54% | 57% | 39% | 53% | 48% | |
Breaks | |||||||
Won | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 20 | |
Converted | 3/6 | 4/7 | 4/9 | 5/10 | 4/8 | 20/40 | |
Converted % | 50% | 57% | 44% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
Conceded | 6 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 29 | |
Saved | 5/6 | 4/7 | 3/4 | 7/9 | 2/3 | 21 | |
Saved % | 83% | 57% | 75% | 78% | 67% | 72% | |
Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
Muchova | |||||||
R1 Volynets |
R2 Osaka |
R3 Potapova |
R4 Paolini |
1/4 Haddad Maia |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-3 7-5 | 6-3 7-65 | 6-4 6-2 | 6-3 6-3 | 6-1 6-4 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
Tot Games | 21 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 96 | |
pts | 73-59 | 73-62 | 64-42 | 58-39 | 59-43 | 327-245 | |
Total points | 132 | 135 | 106 | 97 | 102 | 572 | |
Winners | 24 | 36 | 21 | 23 | 29 | 133 | |
%Winners | 33% | 49% | 33% | 40% | 49% | 41% | |
SERVE | |||||||
Aces | 2 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 22 | |
Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | |
1st in | 35/65 | 47/59 | 26/48 | 28/44 | 37/49 | 173/265 | |
% 1st in | 54% | 80% | 54% | 64% | 76% | 65% | |
1st pts | 24/35 | 36/47 | 21/26 | 23/28 | 29/37 | 133/173 | |
% 1st pts | 69% | 77% | 81% | 82% | 78% | 77% | |
2nd pts | 16/30 | 7/12 | 16/22 | 11/16 | 5/12 | 55/92 | |
% 2nd pts | 53% | 58% | 73% | 69% | 42% | 60% | |
Breaks | |||||||
Won | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 19 | |
Converted | 5/7 | 3/7 | 3/7 | 4/7 | 4/12 | 19/40 | |
Converted % | 71% | 43% | 43% | 57% | 33% | 48% | |
Conceded | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 | |
Saved | 3/6 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 11 | |
Saved % | 50% | 67% | 100% | 67% | 67% | 70% | |
Times Broken | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
Head 2 Head
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Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Kristina Mladenovic/Shuai ZhangMladenovic/Shuai Zhang – Katerina Siniakova/Taylor TownsendSiniakova/Taylor Townsend (7-5 4-6 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Lyudmyla Kichenok/Jelena OstapenkoKichenok/Jelena Ostapenko – Hao-Ching Chan/Veronika KudermetovaChan/Veronika Kudermetova (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Juan Ignacio GalarzaIgnacio Galarza – Juan Pablo Grassi MazzuchiPablo Grassi Mazzuchi (6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Johan NiklesNikles – Nikolas Sanchez-IzquierdoSanchez-Izquierdo (6-0 3-6 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (1-1) – H2H and prediction