Aryna Sabalenka and Emma Navarro will play each other in the semifinal of the U.S. Open for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 7:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.26
Emma Navarro -> 4.05

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Emma Navarro

This will be the 3^rd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Emma Navarro fight against each other. The head to head is 1-1 (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Sabalenka won 6-2 6-3 in the 4^th round in at the French Open back in June 2024.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Emma Navarro – French Open 03-June-2024

Aryna Sabalenka

Ranked no. 2, the Belarussian reached the semifinal after defeating Priscilla Hon 6-3 6-3, Lucia Bronzetti 6-3 6-1, Ekaterina Alexandrova 2-6 6-1 6-2, Elise Mertens 6-2 6-4 and Qinwen Zheng 6-1 6-2.

In the quarter, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Zheng (6-1 6-2). During the match, Sabalenka scored 60 points vs Zheng’s 41. Aryna was pretty aggressive to blast 30 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sabalenka made 3 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka was pretty effective on serve to win 73% (30/41) of her 1st serve and 53% (9/17) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Sabalenka broke Zheng 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Belarussian has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to win 58% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 69% of her matches (362-165). 28-6 on hard in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has an aggregate217-91 win-loss record in the last 9 years on hard.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title at the Australian Open where she defeated Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Cincinnati where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 7-5.

The Belarussian has an aggregate 44-11 win-loss record in 2024, 28-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Emma Navarro

Ranked no. 12 (career-high), Emma reached the semifinal after beating Anna Blinkova 6-1 6-1, Arantxa Rus 6-1 6-1, Marta Kostyuk 6-4 4-6 6-3, Cori Gauff 6-3 4-6 6-3 and Paula Badosa 6-2 7-5.

In the quarter, Emma had a good straight sets win against Badosa (6-2 7-5). During the match Navarro scored 66 points vs Badosa’s 46. The American was very aggressive to blast 29 winners.

Talking about serving, Navarro couldn’t to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Emma Navarro was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 71% (29/41) of her 1st serve and 59% (10/17) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve twice. Navarro broke Badosa 5 times after converting 63% of her break points (5/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Emma has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Hobart where she beat Elise Mertens in the final 6-1 4-6 7-5.

Emma has an aggregate 52-20 win-loss record in 2024, 31-10 on hard (See FULL STATS)

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Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the 1^st round in 2021 and 2023. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Navarro
Match played	5	5
Tot Set	11	12
Tot Games	90	105
Pts	334-245	370-284
Total Points	579	654
Winners	137	148
%Winners	41%	40%

Both Sabalenka and Navarro played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka surrendered 1 set, while Emma Navarro conceded 2 sets. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Navarro (11 vs 12). Therefore, Sabalenka played 15 games less than Navarro. Sabalenka scored 137 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Emma recorded 148 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Navarro
Aces	22	3
Avg per match	4.4	0.6
1st in	189/295	213/319
%1st in	64%	67%
1st pts	137/189	148/213
%1st pts	72%	69%
2nd pts	62/106	59/106
%2nd pts	58%	56%

Sabalenka scored 22 aces (4.4 per match). Navarro bagged 3 aces (0.6 per match). Sabalenka won 72% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Navarro won 69% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Navarro
Won	20	25
Converted	20/43	25/47
% Converted	47%	53%
Conceded	22	23
Saved	18	14
% Saved	82%	61%
Times Broken	4	9

The Belarussian broke her opponents 20 times with a 47% conversion rate. The Belarussian conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 82% of the break points that she conceded. Navarro broke her opponents 25 times with a 53% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 9 times and she saved 61% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R1 Hon	R2 Bronzetti	R3 Alexandrova	R4 Mertens	1/4 Zheng	Total
Score	6-3 6-3	6-3 6-1	2-6 6-1 6-2	6-2 6-4	6-1 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	3	2	2	11
Tot Games	18	16	23	18	15	90
pts	65-48	55-34	80-65	74-57	60-41	334-245
Total points	113	89	145	131	101	579
Winners	26	23	31	27	30	137
%Winners	40%	42%	39%	36%	50%	41%
SERVE
Aces	3	5	5	6	3	22
Double Faults	0	1	4	2	3	10
1st in	36/60	30/41	45/72	37/64	41/58	189/295
% 1st in	60%	73%	63%	58%	71%	64%
1st pts	26/36	23/30	31/45	27/37	30/41	137/189
% 1st pts	72%	77%	69%	73%	73%	72%
2nd pts	14/24	9/11	14/27	16/27	9/17	62/106
% 2nd pts	58%	82%	52%	59%	53%	58%
Breaks
Won	4	4	5	3	4	20
Converted	4/7	4/8	5/14	3/6	4/8	20/43
Converted %	57%	50%	36%	50%	50%	47%
Conceded	6	0	7	8	1	22
Saved	5/6	0/0	4/7	8/8	1/1	18
Saved %	83%	–	57%	100%	100%	68%
Times Broken	1	0	3	0	0	4

Navarro
	R1 Blinkova	R2 Rus	R3 Kostyuk	R4 Gauff	1/4 Badosa	Total
Score	6-1 6-1	6-1 6-1	6-4 4-6 6-3	6-3 4-6 6-3	6-2 7-5
Tot Set	2	2	3	3	2	12
Tot Games	14	14	29	28	20	105
pts	62-33	57-31	85-86	100-88	66-46	370-284
Total points	95	88	171	188	112	654
Winners	21	20	40	38	29	148
%Winners	34%	35%	47%	38%	44%	40%
SERVE
Aces	0	2	0	1	0	3
Double Faults	3	0	3	2	2	10
1st in	25/44	26/47	64/84	57/86	41/58	213/319
% 1st in	57%	55%	76%	66%	71%	67%
1st pts	21/25	20/26	40/64	38/57	29/41	148/213
% 1st pts	84%	77%	63%	67%	71%	69%
2nd pts	8/19	13/21	9/20	19/29	10/17	59/106
% 2nd pts	42%	62%	45%	66%	59%	56%
Breaks
Won	6	5	5	4	5	25
Converted	6/10	5/6	5/11	4/12	5/8	25/47
Converted %	60%	83%	45%	33%	63%	53%
Conceded	2	4	6	5	6	23
Saved	1/2	4/4	2/6	3/5	4/6	14
Saved %	50%	100%	33%	60%	67%	62%
Times Broken	1	0	4	2	2	9

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Lyudmyla Kichenok/Jelena OstapenkoKichenok/Jelena Ostapenko – Hao-Ching Chan/Veronika KudermetovaChan/Veronika Kudermetova (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Kristina Mladenovic/Shuai ZhangMladenovic/Shuai Zhang – Katerina Siniakova/Taylor TownsendSiniakova/Taylor Townsend (7-5 4-6 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Juan Ignacio GalarzaIgnacio Galarza – Juan Pablo Grassi MazzuchiPablo Grassi Mazzuchi (6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Johan NiklesNikles – Nikolas Sanchez-IzquierdoSanchez-Izquierdo (6-0 3-6 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jessica PegulaPegula – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Emma NavarroNavarro – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (1-1) – H2H and prediction