Aryna Sabalenka and Emma Navarro will fight against each other in the semifinal of the U.S. Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 5:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.26
Emma Navarro -> 4.05
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Emma Navarro
This will be the 3rd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Emma Navarro face off. The head to head is 1-1 (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Sabalenka won 6-2 6-3 in the 4th round in at the French Open back in June 2024.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Emma Navarro – French Open 03-June-2024
Aryna Sabalenka
44 - 11win/loss
2
1
WWWWWWWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 44-11 | 28-6 | 15-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Aryna reached the semifinal after beating Priscilla Hon 6-3 6-3, Lucia Bronzetti 6-3 6-1, Ekaterina Alexandrova 2-6 6-1 6-2, Elise Mertens 6-2 6-4 and Qinwen Zheng 6-1 6-2.
In the quarter, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Zheng (6-1 6-2). During the match, Sabalenka scored 60 points vs Zheng’s 41. Sabalenka was quite aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka bagged 3 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka was pretty effective on serve to win 73% (30/41) of her 1st serve and 53% (9/17) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Belarussian broke Zheng 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna has conceded 1 set in this competition to conquer 58% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 69% of her matches (362-165). 28-6 on hard in 2024. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has a compiled217-91 match record in the last 9 years on hard.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title at the Australian Open where she overcame Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Cincinnati where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 7-5.
Sabalenka has a composed 44-11 win-loss record in 2024, 28-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Emma Navarro
52 - 20win/loss
12
12
WWWWWLWWLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 52-20 | 31-10 | 14-7 | 0-0 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 64-24 | 17-9 | 37-11 | 3-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 31-18 | 8-8 | 23-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 19-13 | 6-6 | 13-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 12 (career-high), Emma got to the semifinal after defeating Anna Blinkova 6-1 6-1, Arantxa Rus 6-1 6-1, Marta Kostyuk 6-4 4-6 6-3, Cori Gauff 6-3 4-6 6-3 and Paula Badosa 6-2 7-5.
In the quarter, Navarro had a good straight sets win against Badosa (6-2 7-5). During the match Navarro scored 66 points vs Badosa’s 46. Navarro was pretty aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about serving, Navarro was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Emma Navarro was pretty effective on serve to win 71% (29/41) of her 1st serve and 59% (10/17) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve twice. Navarro broke Badosa 5 times after converting 63% of her break points (5/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Emma has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.
Her best result of the year was conquering the title in Hobart where she beat Elise Mertens in the final 6-1 4-6 7-5.
Emma has an overall 52-20 win-loss record in 2024, 31-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 1st round in 2021 and 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Navarro |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 12 |
| Tot Games | 90 | 105 |
| Pts | 334-245 | 370-284 |
| Total Points | 579 | 654 |
| Winners | 137 | 148 |
| %Winners | 41% | 40% |
Both Sabalenka and Navarro played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka conceded 1 set, while Emma Navarro dropped 2 sets. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Navarro (11 vs 12). Therefore, Sabalenka played 15 games less than Navarro. Sabalenka scored 137 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Navarro struck 148 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Navarro |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 22 | 3 |
| Avg per match | 4.4 | 0.6 |
| 1st in | 189/295 | 213/319 |
| %1st in | 64% | 67% |
| 1st pts | 137/189 | 148/213 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 69% |
| 2nd pts | 62/106 | 59/106 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 56% |
Sabalenka scored 22 aces (4.4 per match). Navarro bagged 3 aces (0.6 per match). Sabalenka won 72% points behind her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Navarro won 69% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Navarro |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 20 | 25 |
| Converted | 20/43 | 25/47 |
| % Converted | 47% | 53% |
| Conceded | 22 | 23 |
| Saved | 18 | 14 |
| % Saved | 82% | 61% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 9 |
Sabalenka broke her opponents 20 times with a 47% conversion rate. Aryna lost her serve 4 times and she saved 82% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponents 25 times with a 53% conversion rate. Emma conceded her serve 9 times and she saved 61% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||||
| R1 Hon |
R2 Bronzetti |
R3 Alexandrova |
R4 Mertens |
1/4 Zheng |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-3 | 6-3 6-1 | 2-6 6-1 6-2 | 6-2 6-4 | 6-1 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 16 | 23 | 18 | 15 | 90 | |
| pts | 65-48 | 55-34 | 80-65 | 74-57 | 60-41 | 334-245 | |
| Total points | 113 | 89 | 145 | 131 | 101 | 579 | |
| Winners | 26 | 23 | 31 | 27 | 30 | 137 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 42% | 39% | 36% | 50% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 22 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 36/60 | 30/41 | 45/72 | 37/64 | 41/58 | 189/295 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 73% | 63% | 58% | 71% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 26/36 | 23/30 | 31/45 | 27/37 | 30/41 | 137/189 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 77% | 69% | 73% | 73% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/24 | 9/11 | 14/27 | 16/27 | 9/17 | 62/106 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 82% | 52% | 59% | 53% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 4/8 | 5/14 | 3/6 | 4/8 | 20/43 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 50% | 36% | 50% | 50% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 22 | |
| Saved | 5/6 | 0/0 | 4/7 | 8/8 | 1/1 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 83% | – | 57% | 100% | 100% | 68% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| Navarro | |||||||
| R1 Blinkova |
R2 Rus |
R3 Kostyuk |
R4 Gauff |
1/4 Badosa |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-1 | 6-1 6-1 | 6-4 4-6 6-3 | 6-3 4-6 6-3 | 6-2 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 14 | 14 | 29 | 28 | 20 | 105 | |
| pts | 62-33 | 57-31 | 85-86 | 100-88 | 66-46 | 370-284 | |
| Total points | 95 | 88 | 171 | 188 | 112 | 654 | |
| Winners | 21 | 20 | 40 | 38 | 29 | 148 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 35% | 47% | 38% | 44% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 25/44 | 26/47 | 64/84 | 57/86 | 41/58 | 213/319 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 55% | 76% | 66% | 71% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 21/25 | 20/26 | 40/64 | 38/57 | 29/41 | 148/213 | |
| % 1st pts | 84% | 77% | 63% | 67% | 71% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/19 | 13/21 | 9/20 | 19/29 | 10/17 | 59/106 | |
| % 2nd pts | 42% | 62% | 45% | 66% | 59% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 25 | |
| Converted | 6/10 | 5/6 | 5/11 | 4/12 | 5/8 | 25/47 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 83% | 45% | 33% | 63% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 23 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 4/4 | 2/6 | 3/5 | 4/6 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 100% | 33% | 60% | 67% | 62% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWLWWLL Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Johan NiklesNikles – Nikolas Sanchez-IzquierdoSanchez-Izquierdo (6-0 3-6 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Juan Ignacio GalarzaIgnacio Galarza – Juan Pablo Grassi MazzuchiPablo Grassi Mazzuchi (6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Jessica PegulaPegula (6-3) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (1-1) – H2H and prediction
