Jasmine Paolini and Karolina Muchova will play each other in the 4^th round of the U.S. Open for the 4^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 11:00 am on Louis Armstrong Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Karolina Muchova who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Karolina Muchova is the pick to win this match.
Karolina Muchova -> 1.82
Jasmine Paolini -> 1.99

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Prediction and head to head Jasmine Paolini vs. Karolina Muchova

This will be the 4^th time that Jasmine Paolini and Karolina Muchova square off. The head to head is 3-0 for Muchova (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Muchova won 6-2 4-6 6-4 in the 3^rd round in Melbourne back in 2021.

Jasmine Paolini

Ranked no. 5 (career-high), Jasmine reached the 4^th round after defeating Bianca Vanessa Andreescu 6-7(5) 6-2 6-4, Karolina Pliskova 0-0 ret. and Yulia Putintseva 6-3 6-4.

In the 3^rd round, Jasmine had a good straight sets win against Putintseva (6-3 6-4). During the match, Paolini scored 75 points vs Putintseva’s 59. The Italian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.

Talking about the service games, Paolini scored just 1 ace in the encounter and she committed only 1 double fault. Jasmine Paolini lost the serve twice and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Paolini put 61% of her first serves in, winning 67% (28/42) of the points behind her 1st serve and 59% (16/27) on the 2nd serve. Paolini broke Putintseva 4 times after converting 67% of her break points (4/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to conquer 54% of the points she played.

Paolini has positive record in the last 10 years having won 57% of her matches (321-240). 16-7 on hard in 2024. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Paolini has a composed 107-87 match record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current year was conquering the title in Dubai where she defeated Anna Kalinskaya in the final 4-6 7-5 7-5.

Paolini has an overall 36-15 win-loss record in 2024, 16-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Karolina Muchova

Ranked no. 52, the Czech got to the 4^th round after beating Katie Volynets 6-3 7-5, Naomi Osaka 6-3 7-6(5) and Anastasia Potapova 6-4 6-2.

In the 3^rd round, Muchova had a good straight sets win against Potapova (6-4 6-2). During the match Muchova scored 64 points vs Potapova’s 42. Muchova was extremely aggressive to blast 21 winners.

About the serving games, Muchova recorded 8 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Karolina Muchova was very effective on serve to win 81% (21/26) of her 1st serve and 73% (16/22) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Karolina broke Potapova 3 times after converting 43% of her break points (3/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Czech hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 56% of the points she played.

Muchova’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Palermo.

Muchova has a compiled 10-4 win-loss record in 2024, 4-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2023. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Paolini	Muchova
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	7	6
Tot Games	50	61
Pts	194-165	210-163
Total Points	359	373
Winners	72	81
%Winners	37%	39%

Both Paolini and Muchova played 3 matches. At the moment, Jasmine Paolini lost 1 set while Karolina Muchova hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Paolini has played 1 set more than Muchova (7 vs 6). However, it’s interesting to notice that Paolini played 11 games less than Muchova. Jasmine scored 72 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, The Czech fired 81 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Paolini	Muchova
Aces	3	17
Avg per match	1	5.7
1st in	108/172	108/172
%1st in	63%	63%
1st pts	72/108	81/108
%1st pts	67%	75%
2nd pts	36/64	39/64
%2nd pts	56%	61%

Paolini recorded 3 aces (1 per match). Muchova struck 17 aces (5.7 per match). Paolini won 67% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Muchova won 75% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 61% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Paolini	Muchova
Won	11	11
Converted	11/22	11/21
% Converted	50%	52%
Conceded	19	11
Saved	13	7
% Saved	68%	64%
Times Broken	6	4

The Italian broke her opponents 11 times with a 50% conversion rate. Jasmine conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 68% of the break points that she conceded. The Czech broke her opponents 11 times with a 52% conversion rate. The Czech conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 64% of the break points that she conceded.

Paolini
	R1 Andreescu	R2 Pliskova	R3 Putintseva	Total
Score	6-75 6-2 6-4	0-0 ret.	6-3 6-4
Tot Set	3	1	2	6
Tot Games	31	0	19	50
pts	119-106	–	75-59	194-165
Total points	225	0	134	359
Winners	44		28	72
%Winners	37%	0%	37%	37%
SERVE
Aces	2	0	1	3
Double Faults	2		1	3
1st in	66/103	/	42/69	108/172
% 1st in	64%	0%	61%	63%
1st pts	44/66	/	28/42	72/108
% 1st pts	67%	0%	67%	67%
2nd pts	20/37	/	16/27	36/64
% 2nd pts	54%	0%	59%	56%
Breaks
Won	7		4	11
Converted	7/16	/	4/6	11/22
Converted %	44%	0%	67%	50%
Conceded	10		9	19
Saved	6/10	0/	7/9	13
Saved %	60%	–	78%	46%
Times Broken	4		2	6

Muchova
	R1 Volynets	R2 Osaka	R3 Potapova	Total
Score	6-3 7-5	6-3 7-65	6-4 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	21	22	18	61
pts	73-59	73-62	64-42	210-163
Total points	132	135	106	373
Winners	24	36	21	81
%Winners	33%	49%	33%	39%
SERVE
Aces	2	7	8	17
Double Faults	3	1	1	5
1st in	35/65	47/59	26/48	108/172
% 1st in	54%	80%	54%	63%
1st pts	24/35	36/47	21/26	81/108
% 1st pts	69%	77%	81%	75%
2nd pts	16/30	7/12	16/22	39/64
% 2nd pts	53%	58%	73%	61%
Breaks
Won	5	3	3	11
Converted	5/7	3/7	3/7	11/21
Converted %	71%	43%	43%	52%
Conceded	6	3	2	11
Saved	3/6	2/3	2/2	7
Saved %	50%	67%	100%	72%
Times Broken	3	1	0	4

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Paula BadosaBadosa – Yafan WangWang (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings

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• Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (3-0) – H2H and prediction
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• Qinwen ZhengZheng – Donna VekicVekic (2-1) – H2H and prediction
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