Jasmine Paolini and Karolina Muchova will play each other in the 4th round of the U.S. Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 11:00 am on Louis Armstrong Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Karolina Muchova who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Karolina Muchova is the pick to win this match.
Karolina Muchova -> 1.82
Jasmine Paolini -> 1.99
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Â
Prediction and head to head Jasmine Paolini vs. Karolina Muchova
This will be the 4th time that Jasmine Paolini and Karolina Muchova square off. The head to head is 3-0 for Muchova (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Muchova won 6-2 4-6 6-4 in the 3rd round in Melbourne back in 2021.
Jasmine Paolini
36 - 15win/loss
4
4
WLWLLWLWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 42-21 | 19-10 | 12-5 | 3-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-30 | 20-16 | 16-8 | 5-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-25 | 14-11 | 10-10 | 6-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-24 | 17-13 | 12-7 | 5-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 7-15 | 1-8 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5 (career-high), Jasmine reached the 4th round after defeating Bianca Vanessa Andreescu 6-7(5) 6-2 6-4, Karolina Pliskova 0-0 ret. and Yulia Putintseva 6-3 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Jasmine had a good straight sets win against Putintseva (6-3 6-4). During the match, Paolini scored 75 points vs Putintseva’s 59. The Italian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Talking about the service games, Paolini scored just 1 ace in the encounter and she committed only 1 double fault. Jasmine Paolini lost the serve twice and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Paolini put 61% of her first serves in, winning 67% (28/42) of the points behind her 1st serve and 59% (16/27) on the 2nd serve. Paolini broke Putintseva 4 times after converting 67% of her break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to conquer 54% of the points she played.
Paolini has positive record in the last 10 years having won 57% of her matches (321-240). 16-7 on hard in 2024. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Paolini has a composed 107-87 match record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was conquering the title in Dubai where she defeated Anna Kalinskaya in the final 4-6 7-5 7-5.
Paolini has an overall 36-15 win-loss record in 2024, 16-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Karolina Muchova
10 - 4win/loss
22
8
LWWWLWWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21-7 | 15-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-13 | 28-9 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 11-12 | 3-2 | 3-3 | 5-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 19-9 | 10-4 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 7-8 | 6-6 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 52, the Czech got to the 4th round after beating Katie Volynets 6-3 7-5, Naomi Osaka 6-3 7-6(5) and Anastasia Potapova 6-4 6-2.
In the 3rd round, Muchova had a good straight sets win against Potapova (6-4 6-2). During the match Muchova scored 64 points vs Potapova’s 42. Muchova was extremely aggressive to blast 21 winners.
About the serving games, Muchova recorded 8 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Karolina Muchova was very effective on serve to win 81% (21/26) of her 1st serve and 73% (16/22) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Karolina broke Potapova 3 times after converting 43% of her break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Czech hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 56% of the points she played.
Muchova’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Palermo.
Muchova has a compiled 10-4 win-loss record in 2024, 4-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Paolini | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 50 | 61 |
| Pts | 194-165 | 210-163 |
| Total Points | 359 | 373 |
| Winners | 72 | 81 |
| %Winners | 37% | 39% |
Both Paolini and Muchova played 3 matches. At the moment, Jasmine Paolini lost 1 set while Karolina Muchova hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Paolini has played 1 set more than Muchova (7 vs 6). However, it’s interesting to notice that Paolini played 11 games less than Muchova. Jasmine scored 72 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, The Czech fired 81 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Paolini | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 3 | 17 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 5.7 |
| 1st in | 108/172 | 108/172 |
| %1st in | 63% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 72/108 | 81/108 |
| %1st pts | 67% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 36/64 | 39/64 |
| %2nd pts | 56% | 61% |
Paolini recorded 3 aces (1 per match). Muchova struck 17 aces (5.7 per match). Paolini won 67% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Muchova won 75% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 61% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Paolini | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 11 | 11 |
| Converted | 11/22 | 11/21 |
| % Converted | 50% | 52% |
| Conceded | 19 | 11 |
| Saved | 13 | 7 |
| % Saved | 68% | 64% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 4 |
The Italian broke her opponents 11 times with a 50% conversion rate. Jasmine conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 68% of the break points that she conceded. The Czech broke her opponents 11 times with a 52% conversion rate. The Czech conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 64% of the break points that she conceded.
| Paolini | |||||
| R1 Andreescu |
R2 Pliskova |
R3 Putintseva |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-75 6-2 6-4 | 0-0 ret. | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 0 | 19 | 50 | |
| pts | 119-106 | – | 75-59 | 194-165 | |
| Total points | 225 | 0 | 134 | 359 | |
| Winners | 44 | 28 | 72 | ||
| %Winners | 37% | 0% | 37% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 3 | ||
| 1st in | 66/103 | / | 42/69 | 108/172 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 0% | 61% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 44/66 | / | 28/42 | 72/108 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 0% | 67% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/37 | / | 16/27 | 36/64 | |
| % 2nd pts | 54% | 0% | 59% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 7 | 4 | 11 | ||
| Converted | 7/16 | / | 4/6 | 11/22 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 0% | 67% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 9 | 19 | ||
| Saved | 6/10 | 0/ | 7/9 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 60% | – | 78% | 46% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 | 6 | ||
| Muchova | |||||
| R1 Volynets |
R2 Osaka |
R3 Potapova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-5 | 6-3 7-65 | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 22 | 18 | 61 | |
| pts | 73-59 | 73-62 | 64-42 | 210-163 | |
| Total points | 132 | 135 | 106 | 373 | |
| Winners | 24 | 36 | 21 | 81 | |
| %Winners | 33% | 49% | 33% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 2 | 7 | 8 | 17 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 35/65 | 47/59 | 26/48 | 108/172 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 80% | 54% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 24/35 | 36/47 | 21/26 | 81/108 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 77% | 81% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/30 | 7/12 | 16/22 | 39/64 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 58% | 73% | 61% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| Converted | 5/7 | 3/7 | 3/7 | 11/21 | |
| Converted % | 71% | 43% | 43% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | |
| Saved | 3/6 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 67% | 100% | 72% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
WLWLLWLWWL
LWWWLWWWWW Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Paula BadosaBadosa – Yafan WangWang (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Caroline WozniackiWozniacki – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Cori GauffGauff (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Donna VekicVekic (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Elise MertensMertens – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (2-7) – H2H and prediction
