Jannik Sinner and Tommy Paul will square off in the 4th round of the U.S. Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 9:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jannik Sinner who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jannik Sinner is the pick to win this match.
Jannik Sinner -> 1.169
Tommy Paul -> 5.1
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Prediction and head to head Jannik Sinner vs. Tommy Paul
This will be the 4th time that Jannik Sinner and Tommy Paul clash against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Sinner (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Sinner won 6-4 6-4 in the semifinal in Toronto back in 2023.
Highlights Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul – Toronto 12-August-2023
Jannik Sinner
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23-3 | 7-0 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 73-8 | 40-5 | 11-2 | 13-0 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 64-15 | 28-7 | 8-3 | 20-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-16 | 21-6 | 15-4 | 7-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 49-22 | 22-8 | 10-6 | 17-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 the Italian got to the 4th round after defeating Mackenzie Mcdonald 2-6 6-2 6-1 6-2, Alex Michelsen 6-4 6-0 6-2 and Christopher O Connell 6-1 6-4 6-2.
In the 3rd round, The Italian had a good straight sets win against O Connell (6-1 6-4 6-2). During the match, Sinner scored 92 points vs O Connell’s 57. Jannik was extremely aggressive to blast 37 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sinner managed to score 15 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Jannik Sinner was extremely efficient on serve to win 82% (37/45) of his 1st serve and 67% (16/24) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Italian broke O Connell 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Jannik has lost 1 set in this event to win 60% of the points he played.
Sinner has a fantastic record in the last 7 years having won 73% of his matches (324-118). 26-2 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sinner has a composed124-43 match record in the last 7 years on hard.
His best result of the season was conquering the title at the Australian Open where he beat Daniil Medvedev in the final 3-6 3-6 6-4 6-4 6-3 and in Rotterdam where he defeated Alex De Minaur in the final 7-5 6-4 and in Miami where he beat Grigor Dimitrov in the final 6-3 6-1 and in Halle where he beat Hubert Hurkacz in the final 7-6(8) 7-6(2) and in Cincinnati where he defeated Frances Tiafoe in the final 7-6(4) 6-2.
Sinner has an overall 51-5 win-loss record in 2024, 26-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Tommy Paul
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26-11 | 10-4 | 12-4 | 3-1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-20 | 17-12 | 10-4 | 8-2 | 10-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-29 | 29-13 | 5-6 | 3-5 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-27 | 21-12 | 2-6 | 9-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 12-12 | 9-7 | 12-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 14, Tommy reached the 4th round after beating Lorenzo Sonego 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2, Max Purcell 7-5 6-0 1-0 ret. and Gabriel Diallo 6-7(5) 6-3 6-1 7-6(3).
In the 3rd round against Diallo, Tommy recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-75 6-3 6-1 7-63). During the match Paul scored 159 points vs Diallo’s 127. The American was extremely aggressive to blast 57 winners.
Talking about serving, Paul bagged 8 aces and he committed only 7 double faults. Tommy Paul lost the serve 5 times and he saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Paul put 60% of his first serves in, winning 68% (57/84) of the points behind his 1st serve and 54% (30/56) on the 2nd serve. Paul broke Diallo 9 times after converting 45% of his break points (9/20).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Paul has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Dallas where he defeated Marcos Giron in the final 7-6(3) 5-7 6-3 and in London where he overcame Lorenzo Musetti in the final 6-1 7-6(8).
The American has an aggregate 38-14 win-loss record in 2024, 14-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sinner | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 12 |
| Tot Games | 80 | 99 |
| Pts | 286-193 | 353-286 |
| Total Points | 479 | 639 |
| Winners | 106 | 143 |
| %Winners | 37% | 41% |
Both Sinner and Paul played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jannik Sinner dropped 1 set, while Tommy Paul surrendered 2 sets. Sinner has played 2 set(s) less than Paul (10 vs 12). Therefore, Sinner played 19 games less than Paul. The Italian scored 106 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, The American recorded 143 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sinner | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 29 | 21 |
| Avg per match | 9.7 | 7 |
| 1st in | 134/228 | 200/325 |
| %1st in | 59% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 106/134 | 143/200 |
| %1st pts | 79% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 52/94 | 69/125 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 55% |
Sinner made 29 aces (9.7 per match). Paul fired 21 aces (7 per match). Sinner won 79% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Paul won 72% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sinner | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 21 | 20 |
| Converted | 21/41 | 20/44 |
| % Converted | 51% | 45% |
| Conceded | 16 | 28 |
| Saved | 10 | 21 |
| % Saved | 63% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 7 |
The Italian broke his opponents 21 times with a 51% conversion rate. Sinner lost his serve 6 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponents 20 times with a 45% conversion rate. Paul conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Sinner | |||||
| R1 Mcdonald |
R2 Michelsen |
R3 O |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 2-6 6-2 6-1 6-2 | 6-4 6-0 6-2 | 6-1 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 24 | 25 | 80 | |
| pts | 109-83 | 85-53 | 92-57 | 286-193 | |
| Total points | 192 | 138 | 149 | 479 | |
| Winners | 39 | 30 | 37 | 106 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 35% | 40% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 11 | 3 | 15 | 29 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 52/94 | 37/65 | 45/69 | 134/228 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 57% | 65% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 39/52 | 30/37 | 37/45 | 106/134 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 81% | 82% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/42 | 15/28 | 16/24 | 52/94 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 54% | 67% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 8 | 8 | 5 | 21 | |
| Converted | 8/15 | 8/16 | 5/10 | 21/41 | |
| Converted % | 53% | 50% | 50% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 11 | 5 | 0 | 16 | |
| Saved | 7/11 | 3/5 | 0/0 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 64% | 60% | – | 41% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Paul | |||||
| R1 Sonego |
R2 Purcell |
R3 Diallo |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2 | 7-5 6-0 1-0 ret. | 6-75 6-3 6-1 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 4 | 3 | 4 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 38 | 19 | 42 | 99 | |
| pts | 125-114 | 69-45 | 159-127 | 353-286 | |
| Total points | 239 | 114 | 286 | 639 | |
| Winners | 62 | 24 | 57 | 143 | |
| %Winners | 50% | 35% | 36% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 8 | 5 | 8 | 21 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 2 | 7 | 14 | |
| 1st in | 88/138 | 28/47 | 84/140 | 200/325 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 60% | 60% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 62/88 | 24/28 | 57/84 | 143/200 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 86% | 68% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 25/50 | 14/19 | 30/56 | 69/125 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 74% | 54% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 9 | 20 | |
| Converted | 6/10 | 5/14 | 9/20 | 20/44 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 36% | 45% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 13 | 0 | 15 | 28 | |
| Saved | 11/13 | 0/0 | 10/15 | 21 | |
| Saved % | 85% | – | 67% | 51% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWLWLWWW
LWLLWWWWLW Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Christopher O ConnellO Connell (6-1 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Daniel EvansEvans (6-3 6-74 6-0 6-0) – See score progression
- Jack DraperDraper – Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp (6-3 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Tommy PaulPaul – Gabriel DialloDiallo (6-75 6-3 6-1 7-63) – See score progression
- Nuno BorgesBorges – Jakub MensikMensik (6-75 6-1 3-6 7-66 6-0) – See score progression
- Jordan ThompsonThompson – Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi (7-5 6-2 7-65) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Flavio CobolliCobolli (6-3 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Tomas MachacMachac – David GoffinGoffin (6-3 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Taylor FritzFritz – Francisco ComesanaComesana (6-3 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (5-7 7-5 6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Juncheng ShangShang (6-71 3-6 6-0 6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (6-4 6-4 2-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (6-3 6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (6-3 7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Ben SheltonShelton (4-6 7-5 6-75 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (6-2 3-6 6-3 7-64) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Andrey RublevRublev – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (4-3) – H2H and prediction
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Nuno BorgesBorges – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Casper RuudRuud – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Jordan ThompsonThompson (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Tommy PaulPaul (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Alexander ZverevZverev (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Tomas MachacMachac (0-3) – H2H and prediction
