Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens will square off in the 4th round of the U.S. Open for the 10th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 7:00 pm on Louis Armstrong Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.176
Elise Mertens -> 4.95
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elise Mertens
This will be the 10th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens play each other. The head to head is 7-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 4-1 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Sabalenka won 6-2 6-3 in the 3rd round in at the Australian Open back in 2023.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens – Australian Open 21-January-2023
Aryna Sabalenka
42 - 11win/loss
2
1
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 42-11 | 26-6 | 15-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, the Belarussian reached the 4th round after beating Priscilla Hon 6-3 6-3, Lucia Bronzetti 6-3 6-1 and Ekaterina Alexandrova 2-6 6-1 6-2.
In the 3rd round against Alexandrova, Aryna recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-1 6-2). During the match, Sabalenka scored 80 points vs Alexandrova’s 65. Sabalenka was quite aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka recorded 5 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 3 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 63% of her first serves in, winning 69% (31/45) of the points behind her 1st serve and 52% (14/27) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Alexandrova 5 times after converting 36% of her break points (5/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian has dropped 1 set in this tournament to conquer 58% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 69% of her matches (360-165). 26-6 on hard in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has a compiled215-91 match record in the last 9 years on hard.
Her best result of the season was winning the title at the Australian Open where she beat Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Cincinnati where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 7-5.
The Belarussian has an aggregate 42-11 win-loss record in 2024, 26-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Elise Mertens
24 - 20win/loss
35
12
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 24-20 | 14-10 | 6-5 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
2023 | 30-22 | 24-16 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
2022 | 29-23 | 19-14 | 4-3 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
2021 | 33-20 | 20-10 | 9-5 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
2020 | 34-13 | 17-7 | 9-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 35, the Belgian reached the 4th round after beating Veronika Kudermetova 3-6 6-4 6-3, Ajla Tomljanovic 6-3 6-2 and Madison Keys 6-7(5) 7-5 6-4.
In the 3rd round against Keys, Elise recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-75 7-5 6-4). During the match Mertens scored 124 points vs Keys’s 110. Elise was pretty aggressive to blast 45 winners.
Talking about serving, Mertens recorded 4 aces and she was not very steady on her 2nd serve to score 10 double faults. Elise Mertens lost the serve 3 times and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Mertens put 51% of her first serves in, winning 80% (45/56) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (25/54) on the 2nd serve. Mertens broke Keys 5 times after converting 31% of her break points (5/16).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Elise has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
Mertens’s best result of the year was reaching the final in Hobart.
The Belgian has an overall 24-20 win-loss record in 2024, 14-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2019 and 2020. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
Points | Sabalenka | Mertens |
---|---|---|
Match played | 3 | 3 |
Tot Set | 7 | 8 |
Tot Games | 57 | 80 |
Pts | 200-147 | 282-241 |
Total Points | 347 | 523 |
Winners | 80 | 99 |
%Winners | 40% | 35% |
Both Sabalenka and Mertens played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka conceded 1 set, while Elise Mertens conceded 2 sets. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Mertens (7 vs 8). Therefore, Sabalenka played 23 games less than Mertens. Aryna scored 80 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Mertens bagged 99 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
Serve | Sabalenka | Mertens |
---|---|---|
Aces | 13 | 16 |
Avg per match | 4.3 | 5.3 |
1st in | 111/173 | 129/255 |
%1st in | 64% | 51% |
1st pts | 80/111 | 99/129 |
%1st pts | 72% | 77% |
2nd pts | 37/62 | 62/126 |
%2nd pts | 60% | 49% |
Sabalenka bagged 13 aces (4.3 per match). Mertens managed to score 16 aces (5.3 per match). Sabalenka won 72% points behind her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Mertens won 77% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points.
How they played the important points
Breaks | Sabalenka | Mertens |
---|---|---|
Won | 13 | 13 |
Converted | 13/29 | 13/35 |
% Converted | 45% | 37% |
Conceded | 13 | 20 |
Saved | 9 | 13 |
% Saved | 69% | 65% |
Times Broken | 4 | 7 |
Sabalenka broke her opponents 13 times with a 45% conversion rate. Sabalenka dropped her serve 4 times and she saved 69% of the break points that she conceded. Elise broke her opponents 13 times with a 37% conversion rate. The Belgian conceded her serve 7 times and she saved 65% of the break points that she conceded.
Sabalenka | |||||
R1 Hon | R2 Bronzetti | R3 Alexandrova | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-3 6-3 | 6-3 6-1 | 2-6 6-1 6-2 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
Tot Games | 18 | 16 | 23 | 57 | |
pts | 65-48 | 55-34 | 80-65 | 200-147 | |
Total points | 113 | 89 | 145 | 347 | |
Winners | 26 | 23 | 31 | 80 | |
%Winners | 40% | 42% | 39% | 40% | |
SERVE | |||||
Aces | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13 | |
Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
1st in | 36/60 | 30/41 | 45/72 | 111/173 | |
% 1st in | 60% | 73% | 63% | 64% | |
1st pts | 26/36 | 23/30 | 31/45 | 80/111 | |
% 1st pts | 72% | 77% | 69% | 72% | |
2nd pts | 14/24 | 9/11 | 14/27 | 37/62 | |
% 2nd pts | 58% | 82% | 52% | 60% | |
Breaks | |||||
Won | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | |
Converted | 4/7 | 4/8 | 5/14 | 13/29 | |
Converted % | 57% | 50% | 36% | 45% | |
Conceded | 6 | 0 | 7 | 13 | |
Saved | 5/6 | 0/0 | 4/7 | 9 | |
Saved % | 83% | – | 57% | 47% | |
Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
Mertens | |||||
R1 Kudermetova | R2 Tomljanovic | R3 Keys | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 3-6 6-4 6-3 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-75 7-5 6-4 | ||
Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
Tot Games | 28 | 17 | 35 | 80 | |
pts | 89-82 | 69-49 | 124-110 | 282-241 | |
Total points | 171 | 118 | 234 | 523 | |
Winners | 23 | 31 | 45 | 99 | |
%Winners | 26% | 45% | 36% | 35% | |
SERVE | |||||
Aces | 5 | 7 | 4 | 16 | |
Double Faults | 6 | 7 | 10 | 23 | |
1st in | 36/84 | 37/61 | 56/110 | 129/255 | |
% 1st in | 43% | 61% | 51% | 51% | |
1st pts | 23/36 | 31/37 | 45/56 | 99/129 | |
% 1st pts | 64% | 84% | 80% | 77% | |
2nd pts | 26/48 | 11/24 | 25/54 | 62/126 | |
% 2nd pts | 54% | 46% | 46% | 49% | |
Breaks | |||||
Won | 5 | 3 | 5 | 13 | |
Converted | 5/10 | 3/9 | 5/16 | 13/35 | |
Converted % | 50% | 33% | 31% | 37% | |
Conceded | 7 | 3 | 10 | 20 | |
Saved | 3/7 | 3/3 | 7/10 | 13 | |
Saved % | 43% | 100% | 70% | 71% | |
Times Broken | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Jessica Bouzas ManeiroBouzas Maneiro (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Caroline WozniackiWozniacki – Jessika PonchetPonchet (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova – Ashlyn KruegerKrueger (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Sara ErraniErrani (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Donna VekicVekic – Peyton StearnsStearns (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Yafan WangWang – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (6-4 3-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (2-6 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Marta KostyukKostyuk (6-4 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Jule NiemeierNiemeier (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Elise MertensMertens – Madison KeysKeys (6-75 7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (3-6 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Paula BadosaBadosa – Elena Gabriela RuseGabriela Ruse (4-6 6-1 7-68) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova – Ashlyn KruegerKrueger (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Caroline WozniackiWozniacki – Jessika PonchetPonchet (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Caroline WozniackiWozniacki – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Yafan WangWang (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Cori GauffGauff (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Donna VekicVekic (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Elise MertensMertens – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (2-7) – H2H and prediction