Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens will square off in the 4th round of the U.S. Open for the 10th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 7:00 pm on Louis Armstrong Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.176
Elise Mertens -> 4.95

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elise Mertens

This will be the 10th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens play each other. The head to head is 7-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 4-1 on hard.

The last time that they competed against each other, Sabalenka won 6-2 6-3 in the 3rd round in at the Australian Open back in 2023.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens – Australian Open 21-January-2023

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka

43 - 11win/loss

Hard
27-6
I Hard
0-0
Clay
15-4
Grass
1-1
Rank
1
High
1
LLWWWWWWWL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 56-14 38-7 15-4 2-2 1-1 0-0
2023 55-14 35-9 14-3 0-0 6-2 0-0
2022 33-22 20-15 9-5 0-0 4-2 0-0
2021 45-18 24-11 13-3 1-1 7-3 0-0
2020 29-10 14-7 6-3 9-0 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 2, the Belarussian reached the 4th round after beating Priscilla Hon 6-3 6-3, Lucia Bronzetti 6-3 6-1 and Ekaterina Alexandrova 2-6 6-1 6-2.

In the 3rd round against Alexandrova, Aryna recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-1 6-2). During the match, Sabalenka scored 80 points vs Alexandrova’s 65. Sabalenka was quite aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sabalenka recorded 5 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 3 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 63% of her first serves in, winning 69% (31/45) of the points behind her 1st serve and 52% (14/27) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Alexandrova 5 times after converting 36% of her break points (5/14).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Belarussian has dropped 1 set in this tournament to conquer 58% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 69% of her matches (360-165). 26-6 on hard in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has a compiled215-91 match record in the last 9 years on hard.

Her best result of the season was winning the title at the Australian Open where she beat Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Cincinnati where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 7-5.

The Belarussian has an aggregate 42-11 win-loss record in 2024, 26-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

U.S. Open
Sabalenka's Record

Elise Mertens

Elise Mertens

24 - 21win/loss

Hard
14-11
I Hard
1-1
Clay
6-5
Grass
3-4
Rank
34
High
12
LWLLWLWLWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 27-25 17-15 6-5 1-1 3-4 0-0
2023 30-22 24-16 5-4 0-0 1-2 0-0
2022 29-23 19-14 4-3 2-2 4-4 0-0
2021 33-20 20-10 9-5 2-2 2-3 0-0
2020 34-13 17-7 9-4 8-2 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 35, the Belgian reached the 4th round after beating Veronika Kudermetova 3-6 6-4 6-3, Ajla Tomljanovic 6-3 6-2 and Madison Keys 6-7(5) 7-5 6-4.

In the 3rd round against Keys, Elise recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-75 7-5 6-4). During the match Mertens scored 124 points vs Keys’s 110. Elise was pretty aggressive to blast 45 winners.

Talking about serving, Mertens recorded 4 aces and she was not very steady on her 2nd serve to score 10 double faults. Elise Mertens lost the serve 3 times and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Mertens put 51% of her first serves in, winning 80% (45/56) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (25/54) on the 2nd serve. Mertens broke Keys 5 times after converting 31% of her break points (5/16).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Elise has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.

Mertens’s best result of the year was reaching the final in Hobart.

The Belgian has an overall 24-20 win-loss record in 2024, 14-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2019 and 2020. See her history.

U.S. Open
Mertens's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

A.Sabalenka
E.Mertens
4h:00
4h:00
Time on court​
!
6h:57
6h:57
1h:40
1h:40
Last match​
!
2h:54
2h:54
3
3
Match played
3
3
57
57
Games Played​
80
80
7
7
Set played​​
8
8
200
200
Total points​
282
282
66.7
66.7
Avg point​
94
94
80
80
Winners
99
99
26.7
26.7
Avg Winners​
33
33
40%
40%
Ratio winners
35%
35%
-- Serve --
13
13
Aces
16
16
4.3
4.3
Avg Aces
5.3
5.3
5
5
Double Faults
23
23
1.7
1.7
Avg Double Faults
!
7.7
7.7
80/111
80/111
1st won total​
99/129
99/129
!
72%
72%
1st won %
!
77%
77%
37/62
37/62
2nd won total​
62/126
62/126
60%
60%
2nd won %
49%
49%
-- Break Points --
13/29
13/29
BP won
13/35
13/35
4.3/9.7
4.3/9.7
Avg BP won
4.3/11.7
4.3/11.7
45%
45%
Won
37%
37%
13
13
Conceded
20
20
4.3
4.3
Avg Conceded
6.7
6.7
4
4
Broken
7
7
1.3
1.3
Avg Broken
2.3
2.3
9
9
Saved
13
13
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Sabalenka Mertens
Match played 3 3
Tot Set 7 8
Tot Games 57 80
Pts 200-147 282-241
Total Points 347 523
Winners 80 99
%Winners 40% 35%

Both Sabalenka and Mertens played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka conceded 1 set, while Elise Mertens conceded 2 sets. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Mertens (7 vs 8). Therefore, Sabalenka played 23 games less than Mertens. Aryna scored 80 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Mertens bagged 99 winners (35%).

Serve Performance

Serve Sabalenka Mertens
Aces 13 16
Avg per match 4.3 5.3
1st in 111/173 129/255
%1st in 64% 51%
1st pts 80/111 99/129
%1st pts 72% 77%
2nd pts 37/62 62/126
%2nd pts 60% 49%

Sabalenka bagged 13 aces (4.3 per match). Mertens managed to score 16 aces (5.3 per match). Sabalenka won 72% points behind her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Mertens won 77% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Sabalenka Mertens
Won 13 13
Converted 13/29 13/35
% Converted 45% 37%
Conceded 13 20
Saved 9 13
% Saved 69% 65%
Times Broken 4 7

Sabalenka broke her opponents 13 times with a 45% conversion rate. Sabalenka dropped her serve 4 times and she saved 69% of the break points that she conceded. Elise broke her opponents 13 times with a 37% conversion rate. The Belgian conceded her serve 7 times and she saved 65% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
R1
Hon		 R2
Bronzetti		 R3
Alexandrova		 Total
Score 6-3 6-3 6-3 6-1 2-6 6-1 6-2
Tot Set 2 2 3 7
Tot Games 18 16 23 57
pts 65-48 55-34 80-65 200-147
Total points 113 89 145 347
Winners 26 23 31 80
%Winners 40% 42% 39% 40%
SERVE
Aces 3 5 5 13
Double Faults 0 1 4 5
1st in 36/60 30/41 45/72 111/173
% 1st in 60% 73% 63% 64%
1st pts 26/36 23/30 31/45 80/111
% 1st pts 72% 77% 69% 72%
2nd pts 14/24 9/11 14/27 37/62
% 2nd pts 58% 82% 52% 60%
Breaks
Won 4 4 5 13
Converted 4/7 4/8 5/14 13/29
Converted % 57% 50% 36% 45%
Conceded 6 0 7 13
Saved 5/6 0/0 4/7 9
Saved % 83% – 57% 47%
Times Broken 1 0 3 4
Mertens
R1
Kudermetova		 R2
Tomljanovic		 R3
Keys		 Total
Score 3-6 6-4 6-3 6-3 6-2 6-75 7-5 6-4
Tot Set 3 2 3 8
Tot Games 28 17 35 80
pts 89-82 69-49 124-110 282-241
Total points 171 118 234 523
Winners 23 31 45 99
%Winners 26% 45% 36% 35%
SERVE
Aces 5 7 4 16
Double Faults 6 7 10 23
1st in 36/84 37/61 56/110 129/255
% 1st in 43% 61% 51% 51%
1st pts 23/36 31/37 45/56 99/129
% 1st pts 64% 84% 80% 77%
2nd pts 26/48 11/24 25/54 62/126
% 2nd pts 54% 46% 46% 49%
Breaks
Won 5 3 5 13
Converted 5/10 3/9 5/16 13/35
Converted % 50% 33% 31% 37%
Conceded 7 3 10 20
Saved 3/7 3/3 7/10 13
Saved % 43% 100% 70% 71%
Times Broken 4 0 3 7

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

Upcoming matches in the draw

Sabalenka
More Stats
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Mertens

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