Matteo Arnaldi and Jordan Thompson will square off in the 3^rd round of the U.S. Open for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 6:00 pm on Grandstand. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jordan Thompson who should win in 5 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jordan Thompson is the pick to win this match.
Jordan Thompson -> 1.69
Matteo Arnaldi -> 2.18

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Prediction and head to head Matteo Arnaldi vs. Jordan Thompson

There is no head to head record between Matteo Arnaldi and Jordan Thompson since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.

Matteo Arnaldi

Ranked no. 30 (career-high), the Italian got to the 3^rd round after beating Zachary Svajda 6-3 6-2 6-1 and Roman Safiullin 6-2 6-4 6-4.

In the 2^nd round, Matteo had a good straight sets win against Safiullin (6-2 6-4 6-4). During the match, Arnaldi scored 95 points vs Safiullin’s 74. The Italian was quite aggressive to blast 42 winners.

Regarding the service games, Arnaldi struck 7 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Matteo Arnaldi was pretty efficient on serve to win 75% (42/56) of his 1st serve and 57% (17/30) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Italian broke Safiullin 5 times after converting 56% of his break points (5/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to win 57% of the points he played.

Arnaldi has a solid match record in the last 7 years having won 62% of his matches (214-129). 16-10 on hard in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Arnaldi has an aggregate73-38 match record in the last 7 years on hard.

Arnaldi’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Montreal.

Arnaldi has a composed 27-21 win-loss record in 2024, 16-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Jordan Thompson

Ranked no. 32, Jordan reached the 3^rd round after beating Constant Lestienne 6-1 6-3 6-2 and Hubert Hurkacz 7-6(2) 6-1 7-5.

In the 2^nd round, The Australian had a good straight sets win against Hurkacz (7-6² 6-1 7-5). During the match Thompson scored 108 points vs Hurkacz’s 88. Jordan was quite aggressive to blast 42 winners.

About the serving games, Thompson managed to score 13 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Jordan Thompson lost the serve twice and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Thompson put 49% of his first serves in, winning 82% (42/51) of the points behind his 1st serve and 49% (26/53) on the 2nd serve. Jordan broke Hurkacz 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Jordan hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.

His best result of the season was winning the title in Los Cabos where he overcame Casper Ruud in the final 6-3 7-6(4).

Jordan has an overall 30-19 win-loss record in 2024, 21-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the 4^th round in 2020. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Arnaldi	Thompson
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	6	6
Tot Games	52	56
Pts	188-140	205-150
Total Points	328	355
Winners	83	81
%Winners	44%	40%

Both Arnaldi and Thompson played 2 matches. Both players have not conceded a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Arnaldi and Thompson have played the same amount of sets 6. However, Arnaldi played 4 games less than Thompson. Arnaldi scored 83 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Jordan recorded 81 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Arnaldi	Thompson
Aces	19	24
Avg per match	9.5	12
1st in	105/175	102/185
%1st in	60%	55%
1st pts	83/105	81/102
%1st pts	79%	79%
2nd pts	33/70	44/83
%2nd pts	47%	53%

Arnaldi recorded 19 aces (9.5 per match). Thompson recorded 24 aces (12 per match). Arnaldi won 79% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Thompson won 79% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Arnaldi	Thompson
Won	12	11
Converted	12/21	11/26
% Converted	57%	42%
Conceded	12	14
Saved	10	12
% Saved	83%	86%
Times Broken	2	2

Matteo broke his opponents 12 times with a 57% conversion rate. Arnaldi lost his serve twice and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded. The Australian broke his opponents 11 times with a 42% conversion rate. The Australian conceded his serve twice and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded.

Arnaldi
	R1 Svajda	R2 Safiullin	Total
Score	6-3 6-2 6-1	6-2 6-4 6-4
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	24	28	52
pts	93-66	95-74	188-140
Total points	159	169	328
Winners	41	42	83
%Winners	44%	44%	44%
SERVE
Aces	12	7	19
Double Faults	6	3	9
1st in	49/89	56/86	105/175
% 1st in	55%	65%	60%
1st pts	41/49	42/56	83/105
% 1st pts	84%	75%	79%
2nd pts	16/40	17/30	33/70
% 2nd pts	40%	57%	47%
Breaks
Won	7	5	12
Converted	7/12	5/9	12/21
Converted %	58%	56%	57%
Conceded	9	3	12
Saved	8/9	2/3	10
Saved %	89%	67%	78%
Times Broken	1	1	2

Thompson
	R1 Lestienne	R2 Hurkacz	Total
Score	6-1 6-3 6-2	7-62 6-1 7-5
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	24	32	56
pts	97-62	108-88	205-150
Total points	159	196	355
Winners	39	42	81
%Winners	40%	39%	40%
SERVE
Aces	11	13	24
Double Faults	0	2	2
1st in	51/81	51/104	102/185
% 1st in	63%	49%	55%
1st pts	39/51	42/51	81/102
% 1st pts	76%	82%	79%
2nd pts	18/30	26/53	44/83
% 2nd pts	60%	49%	53%
Breaks
Won	6	5	11
Converted	6/16	5/10	11/26
Converted %	38%	50%	42%
Conceded	7	7	14
Saved	7/7	5/7	12
Saved %	100%	71%	86%
Times Broken	0	2	2

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Jack DraperDraper – Facundo Diaz AcostaDiaz Acosta (6-4 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz (6-1 7-5 6-4) – See score progression
• Flavio CobolliCobolli – Zizou BergsBergs (4-6 6-3 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Jakub MensikMensik – Tristan Schoolkate
  Schoolkate (6-7⁴ 2-6 6-2 7-6⁵ 7-6³) – See score progression
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (6-3 6-2 7-6⁵) – See score progression
• Tommy PaulPaul – Max PurcellPurcell (7-5 6-0 1-0 ret.) – See score progression
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Otto VirtanenVirtanen (7-5 6-1 7-6³) – See score progression
• Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Roman SafiullinSafiullin (6-2 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Gabriel DialloDiallo – Arthur FilsFils (7-5 6-7³ 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis (6-4 7-5 7-5) – See score progression
• Christopher O ConnellO Connell – Mattia BellucciBellucci (6-3 6-4 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Jordan ThompsonThompson – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (7-6² 6-1 7-5) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Alex MichelsenMichelsen (6-4 6-0 6-2) – See score progression
• Daniel EvansEvans – Mariano NavoneNavone (6-4 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• David GoffinGoffin – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (6-7⁸ 6-3 6-2 7-6¹) – See score progression
• Tomas MachacMachac – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-4 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Juncheng ShangShang – Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena (6-2 6-3 7-6²) – See score progression
• Andrey RublevRublev – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (4-6 5-7 6-1 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Ben SheltonShelton – Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut (6-3 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Laslo DjereDjere (6-4 6-4 2-0 ret.) – See score progression
• Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (6-3 4-6 6-4 1-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko (6-4 6-1 1-0 ret.) – See score progression
• Casper RuudRuud – Gael MonfilsMonfils (6-4 6-2 2-6 7-6³) – See score progression
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Alexandre MullerMuller (6-4 7-6⁵ 6-1) – See score progression
• Francisco ComesanaComesana – Ugo HumbertHumbert (5-7 6-4 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (3-6 6-4 6-4 2-6 7-5) – See score progression
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Mitchell KruegerKrueger (6-7⁵ 0-6 6-4 6-4 7-5) – See score progression
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Arthur CazauxCazaux (6-4 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Taylor FritzFritz – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (6-3 7-6¹ 6-1) – See score progression
• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Rinky HijikataHijikata (6-1 6-1 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Sebastian BaezBaez (6-1 2-0 ret.) – See score progression
• Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero (6-2 6-4 6-0) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jannik SinnerSinner – Christopher O ConnellO Connell (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Gabriel DialloDiallo – Tommy PaulPaul (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Nuno BorgesBorges – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Flavio CobolliCobolli – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Jack DraperDraper (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• David GoffinGoffin – Tomas MachacMachac (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Daniel EvansEvans (1-3) – H2H and prediction
• Casper RuudRuud – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Francisco ComesanaComesana – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry – Alexander ZverevZverev (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Andrey RublevRublev – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (2-2) – H2H and prediction
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (0-3) – H2H and prediction