Matteo Arnaldi and Jordan Thompson will square off in the 3^rd round of the U.S. Open for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 6:00 pm on Grandstand. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jordan Thompson who should win in 5 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jordan Thompson is the pick to win this match.
Jordan Thompson -> 1.69
Matteo Arnaldi -> 2.18

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

Prediction and head to head Matteo Arnaldi vs. Jordan Thompson

There is no head to head record between Matteo Arnaldi and Jordan Thompson since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.

Matteo Arnaldi

Matteo Arnaldi

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
38

High
30

LW

See allSTATS

Year	Total	Hard	Clay	I.hard	Grass	Carpet
2025	1-1	1-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
2024	29-26	17-13	10-9	1-2	1-2	0-0
2023	51-26	21-15	23-7	4-3	3-1	0-0
2022	50-35	9-3	37-20	4-11	0-1	0-0
2021	56-24	2-1	51-18	3-5	0-0	0-0

See all years

Ranked no. 30 (career-high), the Italian got to the 3^rd round after beating Zachary Svajda 6-3 6-2 6-1 and Roman Safiullin 6-2 6-4 6-4.

In the 2^nd round, Matteo had a good straight sets win against Safiullin (6-2 6-4 6-4). During the match, Arnaldi scored 95 points vs Safiullin’s 74. The Italian was quite aggressive to blast 42 winners.

Regarding the service games, Arnaldi struck 7 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Matteo Arnaldi was pretty efficient on serve to win 75% (42/56) of his 1st serve and 57% (17/30) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Italian broke Safiullin 5 times after converting 56% of his break points (5/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to win 57% of the points he played.

Arnaldi has a solid match record in the last 7 years having won 62% of his matches (214-129). 16-10 on hard in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Arnaldi has an aggregate73-38 match record in the last 7 years on hard.

Arnaldi’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Montreal.

Arnaldi has a composed 27-21 win-loss record in 2024, 16-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

U.S. Open

Arnaldi's Record

Jordan Thompson

Jordan Thompson

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
27

High
26

LWW

See allSTATS

Year	Total	Hard	Clay	I.hard	Grass	Carpet
2025	2-1	2-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
2024	35-24	23-13	3-5	5-3	4-3	0-0
2023	41-28	22-15	0-3	7-4	12-6	0-0
2022	40-26	18-14	2-6	8-1	12-5	0-0
2021	23-25	10-11	2-6	0-1	9-5	2-2

See all years

Ranked no. 32, Jordan reached the 3^rd round after beating Constant Lestienne 6-1 6-3 6-2 and Hubert Hurkacz 7-6(2) 6-1 7-5.

In the 2^nd round, The Australian had a good straight sets win against Hurkacz (7-6² 6-1 7-5). During the match Thompson scored 108 points vs Hurkacz’s 88. Jordan was quite aggressive to blast 42 winners.

About the serving games, Thompson managed to score 13 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Jordan Thompson lost the serve twice and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Thompson put 49% of his first serves in, winning 82% (42/51) of the points behind his 1st serve and 49% (26/53) on the 2nd serve. Jordan broke Hurkacz 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Jordan hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.

His best result of the season was winning the title in Los Cabos where he overcame Casper Ruud in the final 6-3 7-6(4).

Jordan has an overall 30-19 win-loss record in 2024, 21-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the 4^th round in 2020. See his history.

U.S. Open

Thompson's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Both Arnaldi and Thompson played 2 matches. Both players have not conceded a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Arnaldi and Thompson have played the same amount of sets 6. However, Arnaldi played 4 games less than Thompson. Arnaldi scored 83 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Jordan recorded 81 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Arnaldi recorded 19 aces (9.5 per match). Thompson recorded 24 aces (12 per match). Arnaldi won 79% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Thompson won 79% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Matteo broke his opponents 12 times with a 57% conversion rate. Arnaldi lost his serve twice and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded. The Australian broke his opponents 11 times with a 42% conversion rate. The Australian conceded his serve twice and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded.

Head 2 Head

• 0Slam
• 0Main
• 4Chall
• 2Minor

• 0Slam
• 1Main
• 11Chall
• 5Minor

Matteo
Arnaldi

0:1

Jordan
Thompson

Rank

38

High

30

0Hard1

Rank

27

High

26

Win Loss

Arnaldi

LW

Thompson

LWW

2025 2024 2023

1 - 1

2 - 1

1-1

Hard

2-1

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Jack DraperDraper – Facundo Diaz AcostaDiaz Acosta (6-4 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz (6-1 7-5 6-4) – See score progression
• Flavio CobolliCobolli – Zizou BergsBergs (4-6 6-3 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Jakub MensikMensik – Tristan SchoolkateSchoolkate (6-7⁴ 2-6 6-2 7-6⁵ 7-6³) – See score progression
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (6-3 6-2 7-6⁵) – See score progression
• Tommy PaulPaul – Max PurcellPurcell (7-5 6-0 1-0 ret.) – See score progression
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Otto VirtanenVirtanen (7-5 6-1 7-6³) – See score progression
• Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Roman SafiullinSafiullin (6-2 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Gabriel DialloDiallo – Arthur FilsFils (7-5 6-7³ 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis (6-4 7-5 7-5) – See score progression
• Christopher O ConnellO Connell – Mattia BellucciBellucci (6-3 6-4 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Jordan ThompsonThompson – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (7-6² 6-1 7-5) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Alex MichelsenMichelsen (6-4 6-0 6-2) – See score progression
• Daniel EvansEvans – Mariano NavoneNavone (6-4 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• David GoffinGoffin – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (6-7⁸ 6-3 6-2 7-6¹) – See score progression
• Tomas MachacMachac – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-4 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Juncheng ShangShang – Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena (6-2 6-3 7-6²) – See score progression
• Andrey RublevRublev – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (4-6 5-7 6-1 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Ben SheltonShelton – Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut (6-3 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Laslo DjereDjere (6-4 6-4 2-0 ret.) – See score progression
• Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (6-3 4-6 6-4 1-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko (6-4 6-1 1-0 ret.) – See score progression
• Casper RuudRuud – Gael MonfilsMonfils (6-4 6-2 2-6 7-6³) – See score progression
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Alexandre MullerMuller (6-4 7-6⁵ 6-1) – See score progression
• Francisco ComesanaComesana – Ugo HumbertHumbert (5-7 6-4 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (3-6 6-4 6-4 2-6 7-5) – See score progression
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Mitchell KruegerKrueger (6-7⁵ 0-6 6-4 6-4 7-5) – See score progression
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Arthur CazauxCazaux (6-4 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Taylor FritzFritz – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (6-3 7-6¹ 6-1) – See score progression
• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Rinky HijikataHijikata (6-1 6-1 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Sebastian BaezBaez (6-1 2-0 ret.) – See score progression
• Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero (6-2 6-4 6-0) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jannik SinnerSinner – Christopher O ConnellO Connell (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Gabriel DialloDiallo – Tommy PaulPaul (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Nuno BorgesBorges – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Flavio CobolliCobolli – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Jack DraperDraper (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• David GoffinGoffin – Tomas MachacMachac (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Daniel EvansEvans (1-3) – H2H and prediction
• Casper RuudRuud – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Francisco ComesanaComesana – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry – Alexander ZverevZverev (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Andrey RublevRublev – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (2-2) – H2H and prediction
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (0-3) – H2H and prediction

Arnaldi

More Stats

Click here

Thompson