Aryna Sabalenka and Ekaterina Alexandrova will square off in the 3^rd round of the U.S. Open for the 7^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 10:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.098
Ekaterina Alexandrova -> 7.1

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova

This will be the 7^th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Ekaterina Alexandrova clash against each other. The head to head is 3-3 for Sabalenka and Alexandrova (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.

The last time that they competed against each other, Sabalenka won 6-4 6-0 in the 4^th round in at the Wimbledon back in 2023.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova – Wimbledon 10-July-2023

Aryna Sabalenka

Ranked no. 2, the Belarussian got to the 3^rd round after defeating Priscilla Hon 6-3 6-3 and Lucia Bronzetti 6-3 6-1.

In the 2^nd round, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Bronzetti (6-3 6-1). During the match, Sabalenka scored 55 points vs Bronzetti’s 34. The Belarussian was very aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sabalenka made 5 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Aryna Sabalenka was very effective on serve to win 77% (23/30) of her 1st serve and 82% (9/11) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Belarussian broke Bronzetti 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Belarussian hasn’t conceded yet a set in this competition to conquer 59% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 69% of her matches (359-165). 25-6 on hard in 2024. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has a composed214-91 record in the last 9 years on hard.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title at the Australian Open where she beat Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Cincinnati where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 7-5.

Aryna has a composed 41-11 win-loss record in 2024, 25-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Ranked no. 31, Alexandrova got to the 3^rd round after defeating Viktoriya Tomova 6-7(4) 6-0 7-5 and Iva Jovic 4-6 6-4 7-5.

In the 2^nd round against Jovic, The Russian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-4 7-5). During the match Alexandrova scored 112 points vs Jovic’s 106. Ekaterina was quite aggressive to blast 39 winners.

Talking about serving, Alexandrova fired 9 aces and she committed only 8 double faults. Ekaterina Alexandrova lost the serve 5 times and she saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Alexandrova put 50% of her first serves in, winning 74% (39/53) of the points behind her 1st serve and 40% (21/53) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Jovic 6 times after converting 46% of her break points (6/13).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Russian has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.

The Russian’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in Linz.

Alexandrova has a composed 22-20 win-loss record in 2024, 13-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2023. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Alexandrova
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	4	6
Tot Games	34	63
Pts	120-82	225-193
Total Points	202	418
Winners	49	86
%Winners	41%	38%

Both Sabalenka and Alexandrova played 2 matches. At the moment, Ekaterina Alexandrova lost 2 sets while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Alexandrova (4 vs 6). Therefore, Sabalenka played 29 games less than Alexandrova. Sabalenka scored 49 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Ekaterina recorded 86 winners (38%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Alexandrova
Aces	8	16
Avg per match	4	8
1st in	66/101	116/212
%1st in	65%	55%
1st pts	49/66	86/116
%1st pts	74%	74%
2nd pts	23/35	40/96
%2nd pts	66%	42%

Sabalenka bagged 8 aces (4 per match). Alexandrova managed to score 16 aces (8 per match). Sabalenka won 74% points on her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 66% of the points. On the other side, Alexandrova won 74% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 42% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Alexandrova
Won	8	13
Converted	8/15	13/27
% Converted	53%	48%
Conceded	6	25
Saved	5	17
% Saved	83%	68%
Times Broken	1	8

Sabalenka broke her opponents 8 times with a 53% conversion rate. Sabalenka surrendered her serve once and she saved 83% of the break points that she conceded. Ekaterina broke her opponents 13 times with a 48% conversion rate. Alexandrova conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 68% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R1 Hon	R2 Bronzetti	Total
Score	6-3 6-3	6-3 6-1
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	18	16	34
pts	65-48	55-34	120-82
Total points	113	89	202
Winners	26	23	49
%Winners	40%	42%	41%
SERVE
Aces	3	5	8
Double Faults	0	1	1
1st in	36/60	30/41	66/101
% 1st in	60%	73%	65%
1st pts	26/36	23/30	49/66
% 1st pts	72%	77%	74%
2nd pts	14/24	9/11	23/35
% 2nd pts	58%	82%	66%
Breaks
Won	4	4	8
Converted	4/7	4/8	8/15
Converted %	57%	50%	53%
Conceded	6	0	6
Saved	5/6	0/0	5
Saved %	83%	–	42%
Times Broken	1	0	1

Alexandrova
	R1 Tomova	R2 Jovic	Total
Score	6-74 6-0 7-5	4-6 6-4 7-5
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	31	32	63
pts	113-87	112-106	225-193
Total points	200	218	418
Winners	47	39	86
%Winners	42%	35%	38%
SERVE
Aces	7	9	16
Double Faults	5	8	13
1st in	63/106	53/106	116/212
% 1st in	59%	50%	55%
1st pts	47/63	39/53	86/116
% 1st pts	75%	74%	74%
2nd pts	19/43	21/53	40/96
% 2nd pts	44%	40%	42%
Breaks
Won	7	6	13
Converted	7/14	6/13	13/27
Converted %	50%	46%	48%
Conceded	12	13	25
Saved	9/12	8/13	17
Saved %	75%	62%	69%
Times Broken	3	5	8

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Karolina PliskovaPliskova (0-0 ret.) – See score progression
• Sara ErraniErrani – Caroline DolehideDolehide (7-5 7-5) – See score progression
• Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Xinyu WangWang (6-1 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Ashlyn KruegerKrueger – Mirra AndreevaAndreeva (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
• Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Clara TausonTauson (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya – Anna BondarBondar (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Jessica Bouzas ManeiroBouzas Maneiro – Katie BoulterBoulter (7-5 7-5) – See score progression
• Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Clara BurelBurel (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
• Cori GauffGauff – Tatjana MariaMaria (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
• Emma NavarroNavarro – Arantxa RusRus (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
• Madison KeysKeys – Maya JointJoint (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
• Yafan WangWang – Diane ParryParry (6-0 6-4) – See score progression
• Paula BadosaBadosa – Taylor TownsendTownsend (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Anhelina KalininaKalinina (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Lucia BronzettiBronzetti (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
• Qinwen ZhengZheng – Erika AndreevaAndreeva (6-7³ 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
• Peyton StearnsStearns – Daria KasatkinaKasatkina (6-1 7-6³) – See score progression
• Donna VekicVekic – Greetje MinnenMinnen (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
• Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Iva JovicJovic (4-6 6-4 7-5) – See score progression
• Elena Gabriela RuseGabriela Ruse – Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
• Jule NiemeierNiemeier – Moyuka UchijimaUchijima (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
• Elise MertensMertens – Ajla TomljanovicTomljanovic (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Marta KostyukKostyuk – Harriet DartDart (7-6¹⁰ 6-1) – See score progression
• Manuel Pena LopezPena Lopez – Brian BencicBencic (6-0 6-0) – See score progression
• Nikolas Sanchez-IzquierdoSanchez-Izquierdo – Andrey ChepelevChepelev (7-6⁴ 6-1) – See score progression
• Nino PortalesPortales – Mikalai HaliakHaliak (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
• Juan Pablo Grassi MazzuchiPablo Grassi Mazzuchi – Gabi Adrian BoitanAdrian Boitan (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
• Johan NiklesNikles – Diego HidalgoHidalgo (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Juan Ignacio GalarzaIgnacio Galarza – Vasile-Alexandru GhileaGhilea (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Alexandar LazarovLazarov – Simone RoncalliRoncalli (6-3 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Ashlyn KruegerKrueger – Mirra AndreevaAndreeva (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
• Sara ErraniErrani – Caroline DolehideDolehide (7-5 7-5) – See score progression
• Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Clara TausonTauson (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Jessica Bouzas ManeiroBouzas Maneiro – Katie BoulterBoulter (7-5 7-5) – See score progression
• Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya – Anna BondarBondar (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Xinyu WangWang (6-1 7-6(4)) – See score progression
• Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Karolina PliskovaPliskova (0-0 ret.) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Ena ShibaharaShibahara (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Elisabetta CocciarettoCocciaretto – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Marie BouzkovaBouzkova – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Sofia KeninKenin – Jessica PegulaPegula (2-2) – H2H and prediction
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Jessika PonchetPonchet (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Caroline WozniackiWozniacki – Renata ZarazuaZarazua (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo (4-2) – H2H and prediction
• Naomi OsakaOsaka – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Varvara LepchenkoLepchenko – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Sara ErraniErrani – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Elena Gabriela RuseGabriela Ruse – Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Yafan WangWang (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Emma NavarroNavarro – Marta KostyukKostyuk (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Cori GauffGauff (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Qinwen ZhengZheng – Jule NiemeierNiemeier (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Donna VekicVekic – Peyton StearnsStearns (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Madison KeysKeys – Elise MertensMertens (3-1) – H2H and prediction
• Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (3-3) – H2H and prediction