Madison Keys and Elise Mertens will square off in the 3rd round of the U.S. Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 7:00 pm on Louis Armstrong Stadium. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 2 sets.
Madison Keys -> 1.4
Elise Mertens -> 2.96
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Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Elise Mertens
This will be the 5th time that Madison Keys and Elise Mertens fight against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Keys (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Mertens won 6-3 3-6 6-3 in the 1st round in Cincinnati back in 2023.
Madison Keys
22 - 9win/loss
14
7
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 22-9 | 5-3 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
2020 | 8-5 | 8-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 14, the American got to the 3rd round after defeating Katerina Siniakova 6-4 6-1 and Maya Joint 6-4 6-0.
In the 2nd round, Keys had a good straight sets win against Joint (6-4 6-0). During the match, Keys scored 60 points vs Joint’s 42. Keys was quite aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Regarding the service games, Keys scored 4 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Madison Keys was quite effective on serve to win 74% (25/34) of her 1st serve and 60% (12/20) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Madison broke Joint 4 times after converting 57% of her break points (4/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Madison hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to win 58% of the points she played.
Keys has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 65% of her matches (256-138). 5-3 on hard in 2024. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Keys has an aggregate 148-81 record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Strasbourg where she beat Danielle Rose Collins in the final 6-1 6-2.
Keys has an aggregate 22-9 win-loss record in 2024, 5-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Elise Mertens
23 - 20win/loss
35
12
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 23-20 | 13-10 | 6-5 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
2023 | 30-22 | 24-16 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
2022 | 29-23 | 19-14 | 4-3 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
2021 | 33-20 | 20-10 | 9-5 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
2020 | 34-13 | 17-7 | 9-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 35, the Belgian reached the 3rd round after beating Veronika Kudermetova 3-6 6-4 6-3 and Ajla Tomljanovic 6-3 6-2.
In the 2nd round, Elise had a good straight sets win against Tomljanovic (6-3 6-2). During the match Mertens scored 69 points vs Tomljanovic’s 49. The Belgian was extremely aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about serving, Mertens recorded 7 aces and she committed only 7 double faults. Elise Mertens conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 3 break points. Furthermore, Mertens put 61% of her first serves in, winning 84% (31/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (11/24) on the 2nd serve. Elise broke Tomljanovic 3 times after converting 33% of her break points (3/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Elise has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Mertens’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Hobart.
The Belgian has an overall 23-20 win-loss record in 2024, 13-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2019 and 2020. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
Points | Keys | Mertens |
---|---|---|
Match played | 2 | 2 |
Tot Set | 4 | 5 |
Tot Games | 33 | 45 |
Pts | 124-88 | 158-131 |
Total Points | 212 | 289 |
Winners | 50 | 54 |
%Winners | 40% | 34% |
Both Keys and Mertens played 2 matches. At the moment, Elise Mertens surrendered 1 set while Madison Keys hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Keys has played 1 set(s) less than Mertens (4 vs 5). Therefore, Keys played 12 games less than Mertens. Keys scored 50 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, The Belgian blasted 54 winners (34%).
Serve Performance
Serve | Keys | Mertens |
---|---|---|
Aces | 5 | 12 |
Avg per match | 2.5 | 6 |
1st in | 70/102 | 73/145 |
%1st in | 69% | 50% |
1st pts | 50/70 | 54/73 |
%1st pts | 71% | 74% |
2nd pts | 20/32 | 37/72 |
%2nd pts | 63% | 51% |
Keys managed to score 5 aces (2.5 per match). Mertens scored 12 aces (6 per match). Keys won 71% points behind her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Mertens won 74% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
Breaks | Keys | Mertens |
---|---|---|
Won | 9 | 8 |
Converted | 9/17 | 8/19 |
% Converted | 53% | 42% |
Conceded | 4 | 10 |
Saved | 3 | 6 |
% Saved | 75% | 60% |
Times Broken | 1 | 4 |
Madison broke her opponents 9 times with a 53% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve once and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded. The Belgian broke her opponents 8 times with a 42% conversion rate. Elise conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded.
Keys | ||||
R1 Siniakova | R2 Joint | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-4 6-1 | 6-4 6-0 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
Tot Games | 17 | 16 | 33 | |
pts | 64-46 | 60-42 | 124-88 | |
Total points | 110 | 102 | 212 | |
Winners | 25 | 25 | 50 | |
%Winners | 39% | 42% | 40% | |
SERVE | ||||
Aces | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
1st in | 36/48 | 34/54 | 70/102 | |
% 1st in | 75% | 63% | 69% | |
1st pts | 25/36 | 25/34 | 50/70 | |
% 1st pts | 69% | 74% | 71% | |
2nd pts | 8/12 | 12/20 | 20/32 | |
% 2nd pts | 67% | 60% | 63% | |
Breaks | ||||
Won | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
Converted | 5/10 | 4/7 | 9/17 | |
Converted % | 50% | 57% | 53% | |
Conceded | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
Saved | 1/2 | 2/2 | 3 | |
Saved % | 50% | 100% | 75% | |
Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Mertens | ||||
R1 Kudermetova | R2 Tomljanovic | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 3-6 6-4 6-3 | 6-3 6-2 | ||
Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
Tot Games | 28 | 17 | 45 | |
pts | 89-82 | 69-49 | 158-131 | |
Total points | 171 | 118 | 289 | |
Winners | 23 | 31 | 54 | |
%Winners | 26% | 45% | 34% | |
SERVE | ||||
Aces | 5 | 7 | 12 | |
Double Faults | 6 | 7 | 13 | |
1st in | 36/84 | 37/61 | 73/145 | |
% 1st in | 43% | 61% | 50% | |
1st pts | 23/36 | 31/37 | 54/73 | |
% 1st pts | 64% | 84% | 74% | |
2nd pts | 26/48 | 11/24 | 37/72 | |
% 2nd pts | 54% | 46% | 51% | |
Breaks | ||||
Won | 5 | 3 | 8 | |
Converted | 5/10 | 3/9 | 8/19 | |
Converted % | 50% | 33% | 42% | |
Conceded | 7 | 3 | 10 | |
Saved | 3/7 | 3/3 | 6 | |
Saved % | 43% | 100% | 72% | |
Times Broken | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Ashlyn KruegerKrueger – Mirra AndreevaAndreeva (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Clara TausonTauson (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya – Anna BondarBondar (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Jessica Bouzas ManeiroBouzas Maneiro – Katie BoulterBoulter (7-5 7-5) – See score progression
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Karolina PliskovaPliskova (0-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Sara ErraniErrani – Caroline DolehideDolehide (7-5 7-5) – See score progression
- Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Xinyu WangWang (6-1 7-64) – See score progression
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Anhelina KalininaKalinina (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Lucia BronzettiBronzetti (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Erika AndreevaAndreeva (6-73 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Peyton StearnsStearns – Daria KasatkinaKasatkina (6-1 7-63) – See score progression
- Donna VekicVekic – Greetje MinnenMinnen (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Iva JovicJovic (4-6 6-4 7-5) – See score progression
- Elena Gabriela RuseGabriela Ruse – Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
- Jule NiemeierNiemeier – Moyuka UchijimaUchijima (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
- Elise MertensMertens – Ajla TomljanovicTomljanovic (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Harriet DartDart (7-610 6-1) – See score progression
- Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Clara BurelBurel (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Tatjana MariaMaria (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Arantxa RusRus (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Madison KeysKeys – Maya JointJoint (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
- Yafan WangWang – Diane ParryParry (6-0 6-4) – See score progression
- Paula BadosaBadosa – Taylor TownsendTownsend (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- Juan Pablo Grassi MazzuchiPablo Grassi Mazzuchi – Gabi Adrian BoitanAdrian Boitan (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Johan NiklesNikles – Diego HidalgoHidalgo (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Juan Ignacio GalarzaIgnacio Galarza – Vasile-Alexandru GhileaGhilea (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Alexandar LazarovLazarov – Simone RoncalliRoncalli (6-3 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Manuel Pena LopezPena Lopez – Brian BencicBencic (6-0 6-0) – See score progression
- Nikolas Sanchez-IzquierdoSanchez-Izquierdo – Andrey ChepelevChepelev (7-64 6-1) – See score progression
- Nino PortalesPortales – Mikalai HaliakHaliak (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Ashlyn KruegerKrueger – Mirra AndreevaAndreeva (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Sara ErraniErrani – Caroline DolehideDolehide (7-5 7-5) – See score progression
- Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Clara TausonTauson (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Jessica Bouzas ManeiroBouzas Maneiro – Katie BoulterBoulter (7-5 7-5) – See score progression
- Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya – Anna BondarBondar (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Xinyu WangWang (6-1 7-6(4)) – See score progression
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Karolina PliskovaPliskova (0-0 ret.) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Ena ShibaharaShibahara (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elisabetta CocciarettoCocciaretto – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marie BouzkovaBouzkova – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Sofia KeninKenin – Jessica PegulaPegula (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Jessika PonchetPonchet (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Caroline WozniackiWozniacki – Renata ZarazuaZarazua (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo (4-2) – H2H and prediction
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Varvara LepchenkoLepchenko – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sara ErraniErrani – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Elena Gabriela RuseGabriela Ruse – Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Yafan WangWang (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Marta KostyukKostyuk (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Cori GauffGauff (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Jule NiemeierNiemeier (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Donna VekicVekic – Peyton StearnsStearns (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Elise MertensMertens (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (3-3) – H2H and prediction