Madison Keys and Elise Mertens will square off in the 3rd round of the U.S. Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 7:00 pm on Louis Armstrong Stadium. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.4
Elise Mertens -> 2.96

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Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Elise Mertens

This will be the 5th time that Madison Keys and Elise Mertens fight against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Keys (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Mertens won 6-3 3-6 6-3 in the 1st round in Cincinnati back in 2023.

Madison Keys

Madison Keys

22 - 9win/loss

Hard
5-3
I Hard
0-0
Clay
13-4
Grass
4-2
Rank
21
High
7
LLWWLWWLLW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 24-12 7-6 13-4 0-0 4-2 0-0
2023 33-15 19-9 5-3 0-2 9-1 0-0
2022 30-20 25-12 4-4 0-3 1-1 0-0
2021 11-15 3-9 3-4 0-0 5-2 0-0
2020 8-5 8-4 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 14, the American got to the 3rd round after defeating Katerina Siniakova 6-4 6-1 and Maya Joint 6-4 6-0.

In the 2nd round, Keys had a good straight sets win against Joint (6-4 6-0). During the match, Keys scored 60 points vs Joint’s 42. Keys was quite aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Regarding the service games, Keys scored 4 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Madison Keys was quite effective on serve to win 74% (25/34) of her 1st serve and 60% (12/20) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Madison broke Joint 4 times after converting 57% of her break points (4/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Madison hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to win 58% of the points she played.

Keys has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 65% of her matches (256-138). 5-3 on hard in 2024. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Keys has an aggregate 148-81 record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Strasbourg where she beat Danielle Rose Collins in the final 6-1 6-2.

Keys has an aggregate 22-9 win-loss record in 2024, 5-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

U.S. Open
Keys's Record

Elise Mertens

Elise Mertens

23 - 20win/loss

Hard
13-10
I Hard
1-1
Clay
6-5
Grass
3-4
Rank
34
High
12
LWLLWLWLWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 27-25 17-15 6-5 1-1 3-4 0-0
2023 30-22 24-16 5-4 0-0 1-2 0-0
2022 29-23 19-14 4-3 2-2 4-4 0-0
2021 33-20 20-10 9-5 2-2 2-3 0-0
2020 34-13 17-7 9-4 8-2 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 35, the Belgian reached the 3rd round after beating Veronika Kudermetova 3-6 6-4 6-3 and Ajla Tomljanovic 6-3 6-2.

In the 2nd round, Elise had a good straight sets win against Tomljanovic (6-3 6-2). During the match Mertens scored 69 points vs Tomljanovic’s 49. The Belgian was extremely aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Talking about serving, Mertens recorded 7 aces and she committed only 7 double faults. Elise Mertens conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 3 break points. Furthermore, Mertens put 61% of her first serves in, winning 84% (31/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (11/24) on the 2nd serve. Elise broke Tomljanovic 3 times after converting 33% of her break points (3/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Elise has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.

Mertens’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Hobart.

The Belgian has an overall 23-20 win-loss record in 2024, 13-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2019 and 2020. See her history.

U.S. Open
Mertens's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

M.Keys
E.Mertens
2h:06
2h:06
Time on court​
!
4h:03
4h:03
1h:02
1h:02
Last match​
1h:36
1h:36
2
2
Match played
2
2
33
33
Games Played​
45
45
4
4
Set played​​
5
5
124
124
Total points​
158
158
62
62
Avg point​
79
79
50
50
Winners
54
54
25
25
Avg Winners​
27
27
40%
40%
Ratio winners
34%
34%
-- Serve --
5
5
Aces
12
12
2.5
2.5
Avg Aces
6
6
4
4
Double Faults
13
13
2
2
Avg Double Faults
!
6.5
6.5
50/70
50/70
1st won total​
54/73
54/73
!
71%
71%
1st won %
!
74%
74%
20/32
20/32
2nd won total​
37/72
37/72
!
63%
63%
2nd won %
51%
51%
-- Break Points --
9/17
9/17
BP won
8/19
8/19
4.5/8.5
4.5/8.5
Avg BP won
4/9.5
4/9.5
!
53%
53%
Won
42%
42%
4
4
Conceded
10
10
2
2
Avg Conceded
5
5
1
1
Broken
4
4
!
0.5
0.5
Avg Broken
2
2
3
3
Saved
6
6
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Keys Mertens
Match played 2 2
Tot Set 4 5
Tot Games 33 45
Pts 124-88 158-131
Total Points 212 289
Winners 50 54
%Winners 40% 34%

Both Keys and Mertens played 2 matches. At the moment, Elise Mertens surrendered 1 set while Madison Keys hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Keys has played 1 set(s) less than Mertens (4 vs 5). Therefore, Keys played 12 games less than Mertens. Keys scored 50 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, The Belgian blasted 54 winners (34%).

Serve Performance

Serve Keys Mertens
Aces 5 12
Avg per match 2.5 6
1st in 70/102 73/145
%1st in 69% 50%
1st pts 50/70 54/73
%1st pts 71% 74%
2nd pts 20/32 37/72
%2nd pts 63% 51%

Keys managed to score 5 aces (2.5 per match). Mertens scored 12 aces (6 per match). Keys won 71% points behind her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Mertens won 74% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 51% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Keys Mertens
Won 9 8
Converted 9/17 8/19
% Converted 53% 42%
Conceded 4 10
Saved 3 6
% Saved 75% 60%
Times Broken 1 4

Madison broke her opponents 9 times with a 53% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve once and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded. The Belgian broke her opponents 8 times with a 42% conversion rate. Elise conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded.

Keys
R1
Siniakova		 R2
Joint		 Total
Score 6-4 6-1 6-4 6-0
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 17 16 33
pts 64-46 60-42 124-88
Total points 110 102 212
Winners 25 25 50
%Winners 39% 42% 40%
SERVE
Aces 1 4 5
Double Faults 3 1 4
1st in 36/48 34/54 70/102
% 1st in 75% 63% 69%
1st pts 25/36 25/34 50/70
% 1st pts 69% 74% 71%
2nd pts 8/12 12/20 20/32
% 2nd pts 67% 60% 63%
Breaks
Won 5 4 9
Converted 5/10 4/7 9/17
Converted % 50% 57% 53%
Conceded 2 2 4
Saved 1/2 2/2 3
Saved % 50% 100% 75%
Times Broken 1 0 1
Mertens
R1
Kudermetova		 R2
Tomljanovic		 Total
Score 3-6 6-4 6-3 6-3 6-2
Tot Set 3 2 5
Tot Games 28 17 45
pts 89-82 69-49 158-131
Total points 171 118 289
Winners 23 31 54
%Winners 26% 45% 34%
SERVE
Aces 5 7 12
Double Faults 6 7 13
1st in 36/84 37/61 73/145
% 1st in 43% 61% 50%
1st pts 23/36 31/37 54/73
% 1st pts 64% 84% 74%
2nd pts 26/48 11/24 37/72
% 2nd pts 54% 46% 51%
Breaks
Won 5 3 8
Converted 5/10 3/9 8/19
Converted % 50% 33% 42%
Conceded 7 3 10
Saved 3/7 3/3 6
Saved % 43% 100% 72%
Times Broken 4 0 4

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

Upcoming matches in the draw

Keys
More Stats
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Mertens

Click for FULL STATS