Karolina Muchova and Naomi Osaka will face off in the 2nd round of the U.S. Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 7:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Naomi Osaka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Naomi Osaka is the pick to win this match.
Naomi Osaka -> 1.68
Karolina Muchova -> 2.19
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Prediction and head to head Karolina Muchova vs. Naomi Osaka
This will be the 3rd time that Karolina Muchova and Naomi Osaka face off. The head to head is 1-1 (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Muchova won 6-4 3-6 6-1 in the 2nd round in Madrid back in 2021.
Highlights Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka – Madrid 02-May-2021
Karolina Muchova
8 - 4win/loss
52
8
WLWLLWWWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 8-4 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-13 | 28-9 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 11-12 | 3-2 | 3-3 | 5-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 19-9 | 10-4 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 7-8 | 6-6 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 52, Muchova got to the 2nd round after beating Katie Volynets 6-3 7-5.
In the 1st round, The Czech had a good straight sets win against Volynets (6-3 7-5). During the match, Muchova scored 73 points vs Volynets’s 59. Muchova was very aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Regarding the service games, Muchova managed to score 2 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Karolina Muchova lost the serve 3 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Muchova put 54% of her first serves in, winning 69% (24/35) of the points behind her 1st serve and 53% (16/30) on the 2nd serve. Karolina broke Volynets 5 times after converting 71% of her break points (5/7).
Muchova has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 67% of her matches (213-105). 2-1 on hard in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Muchova has an overall99-42 match record in the last 9 years on hard.
The Czech’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in Palermo.
Muchova has an overall 8-4 win-loss record in 2024, 2-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Naomi Osaka
19 - 16win/loss
88
1
WLWLWLLWLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19-16 | 10-8 | 5-5 | 1-0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 14-9 | 13-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 18-6 | 16-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 16-3 | 16-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 88, Naomi got to the 2nd round after defeating Jelena Ostapenko 6-3 6-2.
In the 1st round, Osaka had a good straight sets win against Ostapenko (6-3 6-2). During the match Osaka scored 61 points vs Ostapenko’s 39. The Japanese was extremely aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Talking about serving, Osaka fired 9 aces and she was extremely steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Naomi Osaka was exceptionally effective on serve to win 80% (24/30) of her 1st serve and 75% (15/20) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Naomi was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Ostapenko 3 times.
The Japanese has a compiled 19-16 win-loss record in 2024, 10-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, she won this tournament twice in 2018 and 2020. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 21 | 17 |
| Pts | 73-59 | 61-39 |
| Total Points | 132 | 100 |
| Winners | 24 | 24 |
| %Winners | 33% | 39% |
Both Muchova and Osaka played 1 match. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Muchova and Osaka have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Muchova played 4 games more than Osaka. Muchova scored 24 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, The Japanese fired 24 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 9 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 9 |
| 1st in | 35/65 | 30/50 |
| %1st in | 54% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 24/35 | 24/30 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 16/30 | 15/20 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 75% |
Muchova blasted 2 aces . Osaka fired 9 aces . Muchova won 69% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Osaka won 80% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 75% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 3 |
| Converted | 5/7 | 3/3 |
| % Converted | 71% | 100% |
| Conceded | 6 | 2 |
| Saved | 3 | 2 |
| % Saved | 50% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 |
Karolina broke her opponent 5 times with a 71% conversion rate. The Czech lost her serve 3 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. Osaka broke her opponent 3 times with a 100% conversion rate. Osaka was rock solid on her serve as she has never conceded a single service game after saving 2 break points.
| Muchova | |||
| R1 Volynets |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 21 | |
| pts | 73-59 | 73-59 | |
| Total points | 132 | 132 | |
| Winners | 24 | 24 | |
| %Winners | 33% | 33% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 35/65 | 35/65 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 54% | |
| 1st pts | 24/35 | 24/35 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/30 | 16/30 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 53% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/7 | 5/7 | |
| Converted % | 71% | 71% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 6 | |
| Saved | 3/6 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
| Osaka | |||
| R1 Ostapenko |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 17 | |
| pts | 61-39 | 61-39 | |
| Total points | 100 | 100 | |
| Winners | 24 | 24 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 9 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 30/50 | 30/50 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 24/30 | 24/30 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/20 | 15/20 | |
| % 2nd pts | 75% | 75% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | 3/3 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
WLWLLWWWWL
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