Alex Michelsen and Pablo Carreno-Busta will square off in the semifinal of the Winston-Salem for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 6:30 pm on STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex Michelsen who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alex Michelsen is the pick to win this match.
Alex Michelsen -> 1.68
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 2.19
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Prediction and head to head Alex Michelsen vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta
There is no head to head record between Alex Michelsen and Pablo Carreno-Busta since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.
Alex Michelsen
32 - 26win/loss
41
41
LWWWLWWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 45-34 | 26-14 | 4-9 | 8-5 | 7-6 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 61-27 | 30-13 | 4-3 | 19-7 | 8-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 23-10 | 14-8 | 0-1 | 9-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 52 (career-high), Alex got to the semifinal after beating Marton Fucsovics 7-6(3) 6-4, Zizou Bergs 6-1 6-2 and Christopher Eubanks 7-5 6-7(6) 7-6(5).
In the quarter, The American defeated Eubanks (7-5 6-76 7-65). During the match, Michelsen scored 115 points vs Eubanks’s 105. The American was pretty aggressive to blast 61 winners.
Regarding the service games, Michelsen blasted 8 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Alex Michelsen lost the serve 3 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Michelsen put 71% of his first serves in, winning 77% (61/79) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (16/32) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Eubanks 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Alex has dropped 1 set in this competition to win 54% of the points he played.
Michelsen has a solid match record in the last 3 years having won 65% of his matches (115-63). 19-10 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Michelsen has an aggregate63-31 match record in the last 3 years on hard.
Alex’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in Newport.
Michelsen has an overall 31-26 win-loss record in 2024, 19-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Winston-Salem
Pablo Carreno-Busta
8 - 7win/loss
196
10
LWLLLWLLWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10-12 | 7-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-25 | 19-8 | 11-9 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-18 | 14-8 | 17-4 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 20-12 | 9-5 | 4-2 | 7-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 299, Carreno-Busta got to the semifinal after defeating Omni Kumar 6-2 6-0, Alexander Shevchenko 6-2 6-2, Aleksandar Vukic 6-3 4-6 6-3 and Learner Tien 6-4 6-2.
In the quarter, Carreno-Busta had a good straight sets win against Tien (6-4 6-2). During the match Carreno-Busta scored 68 points vs Tien’s 53. The Spaniard was quite aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Talking about serving, Carreno-Busta scored 2 aces and he was extremely solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Pablo Carreno-Busta lost the serve once and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Carreno-Busta put 70% of his first serves in, winning 64% (30/47) of the points behind his 1st serve and 65% (13/20) on the 2nd serve. Pablo broke Tien 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Pablo has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.
Pablo has an overall 8-6 win-loss record in 2024, 7-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Winston-Salem
Previously, he won this tournament once in 2016. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Michelsen | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 76 | 76 |
| Pts | 257-223 | 279-199 |
| Total Points | 480 | 478 |
| Winners | 122 | 112 |
| %Winners | 47% | 40% |
Michelsen played 3 matches while Carreno-Busta competed in 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Alex Michelsen surrendered 1 set, while Pablo Carreno-Busta surrendered 1 set. Michelsen has played 2 set(s) less than Carreno-Busta (7 vs 9). However, it is interesting to notice that they played the same amount of games (76). Alex scored 122 winners (47% of the total points). On the other side, Pablo made 112 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Michelsen | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 11 | 13 |
| Avg per match | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| 1st in | 168/236 | 152/247 |
| %1st in | 71% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 122/168 | 112/152 |
| %1st pts | 73% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 37/68 | 53/95 |
| %2nd pts | 54% | 56% |
Michelsen made 11 aces (3.7 per match). Carreno-Busta blasted 13 aces (3.3 per match). Michelsen won 73% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Carreno-Busta won 74% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Michelsen | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 19 |
| Converted | 10/19 | 19/33 |
| % Converted | 53% | 58% |
| Conceded | 10 | 20 |
| Saved | 6 | 15 |
| % Saved | 60% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 5 |
The American broke his opponents 10 times with a 53% conversion rate. The American conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded. Carreno-Busta broke his opponents 19 times with a 58% conversion rate. Carreno-Busta conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Michelsen | |||||
| R2 Fucsovics |
R3 Bergs |
1/4 Eubanks |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-63 6-4 | 6-1 6-2 | 7-5 6-76 7-65 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 15 | 38 | 76 | |
| pts | 80-75 | 62-43 | 115-105 | 257-223 | |
| Total points | 155 | 105 | 220 | 480 | |
| Winners | 33 | 28 | 61 | 122 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 45% | 53% | 47% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 52/72 | 37/53 | 79/111 | 168/236 | |
| % 1st in | 72% | 70% | 71% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 33/52 | 28/37 | 61/79 | 122/168 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 76% | 77% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/20 | 8/16 | 16/32 | 37/68 | |
| % 2nd pts | 65% | 50% | 50% | 54% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | |
| Converted | 2/5 | 4/9 | 4/5 | 10/19 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 44% | 80% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 3/3 | 3/6 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 100% | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | |
| Carreno-Busta | ||||||
| R1 Kumar |
R2 Shevchenko |
R3 Vukic |
1/4 Tien |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-0 | 6-2 6-2 | 6-3 4-6 6-3 | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 14 | 16 | 28 | 18 | 76 | |
| pts | 55-32 | 62-41 | 94-73 | 68-53 | 279-199 | |
| Total points | 87 | 103 | 167 | 121 | 478 | |
| Winners | 20 | 20 | 42 | 30 | 112 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 32% | 45% | 44% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 26/47 | 23/53 | 56/80 | 47/67 | 152/247 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 43% | 70% | 70% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 20/26 | 20/23 | 42/56 | 30/47 | 112/152 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 87% | 75% | 64% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/21 | 15/30 | 13/24 | 13/20 | 53/95 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 50% | 54% | 65% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 19 | |
| Converted | 5/7 | 5/9 | 5/8 | 4/9 | 19/33 | |
| Converted % | 71% | 56% | 63% | 44% | 58% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 20 | |
| Saved | 4/4 | 3/4 | 4/7 | 4/5 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 75% | 57% | 80% | 104% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWLWWWLW
LWLLLWLLWW Tennis Scores in Salem Open
- Alex MichelsenMichelsen – Christopher EubanksEubanks (7-5 6-76 7-65) – See score progression
- Lorenzo SonegoSonego – Pavel KotovKotov (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- David GoffinGoffin – Rinky HijikataHijikata (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Learner TienTien (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Jamie Murray/John PeersMurray/John Peers – Nicolas Barrientos/Skander MansouriBarrientos/Skander Mansouri (7-66 6-3) – See score progression
- Nathaniel Lammons/Jack WithrowLammons/Jack Withrow – Rafael Matos/Marcelo MeloMatos/Marcelo Melo (7-61 6-74 11-9) – See score progression
- Julian Cash/Robert GallowayCash/Robert Galloway – Constantin Frantzen/Hendrik JebensFrantzen/Hendrik Jebens (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- David GoffinGoffin – Rinky HijikataHijikata (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Learner TienTien (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Alex MichelsenMichelsen – Christopher EubanksEubanks (7-5 6-7(6) 7-6(5)) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- David GoffinGoffin – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
