Yuta Shimizu and Rio Noguchi will clash against each other in the semifinal of the Jinan Challenger for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 12:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Yuta Shimizu who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Yuta Shimizu is the pick to win this match.
Yuta Shimizu -> 1.51
Rio Noguchi -> 2.45

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Prediction and head to head Yuta Shimizu vs. Rio Noguchi

This will be the 3^rd time that Yuta Shimizu and Rio Noguchi play each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Shimizu (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Shimizu won 7-6(5) 6-4 in the quarter in M25 Aktobe back in 2020.

Yuta Shimizu

Ranked no. 261, the Japanese reached the semifinal after beating Yuquan Jin 6-4 6-2, Yi Zhou 6-2 6-1 and Philip Henning 6-4 5-7 7-5.

In the quarter, Yuta defeated Henning (6-4 5-7 7-5). During the match, Shimizu scored 108 points vs Henning’s 102. The Japanese was extremely aggressive to blast 36 winners.

Talking about the service games, Shimizu scored 7 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Yuta Shimizu was very efficient on serve to win 71% (36/51) of his 1st serve and 55% (24/44) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve 4 times. Yuta broke Henning 5 times after converting 36% of his break points (5/14).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Japanese has lost 1 set in this event to conquer 55% of the points he played.

Shimizu has a solid win-loss record in the last 9 years having won 64% of his matches (241-134). 19-16 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Shimizu has an overall187-105 win-loss record in the last 9 years on hard.

Shimizu’s best result of the year was getting to the final in the Little Rock Challenger.

Yuta has an overall 23-19 win-loss record in 2024, 19-16 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Jinan Challenger

The Japanese has never competed in this tournament before.

Rio Noguchi

Ranked no. 333, Noguchi got to the semifinal after defeating Bogdan Bobrov 7-5 6-4, Aidan Mchugh 6-3 6-3 and Woobin Shin 6-3 6-2.

In the quarter, Rio had a good straight sets win against Shin (6-3 6-2). During the match Noguchi scored 55 points vs Shin’s 34. Noguchi was pretty aggressive to blast 26 winners.

Talking about serving, Noguchi bagged 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Rio Noguchi was extremely effective on serve to win 87% (26/30) of his 1st serve and 53% (8/15) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Noguchi broke Shin 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Noguchi hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.

The Japanese’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in M25 Swan Hill.

Rio has a composed 29-21 win-loss record in 2024, 24-14 on hard (See FULL STATS)

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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Shimizu	Noguchi
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	7	6
Tot Games	67	57
Pts	233-194	197-140
Total Points	427	337
Winners	85	84
%Winners	36%	43%

Both Shimizu and Noguchi played 3 matches. At the moment, Yuta Shimizu dropped 1 set while Rio Noguchi hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Shimizu has played 1 set more than Noguchi (7 vs 6). Therefore, Shimizu played 10 games more than Noguchi. Shimizu scored 85 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, The Japanese recorded 84 winners (43%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Shimizu	Noguchi
Aces	17	4
Avg per match	5.7	1.3
1st in	118/199	102/154
%1st in	59%	66%
1st pts	85/118	84/102
%1st pts	72%	82%
2nd pts	45/81	32/52
%2nd pts	56%	62%

Shimizu made 17 aces (5.7 per match). Noguchi managed to score 4 aces (1.3 per match). Shimizu won 72% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Noguchi won 82% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 62% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Shimizu	Noguchi
Won	13	10
Converted	13/31	10/27
% Converted	42%	37%
Conceded	13	6
Saved	9	4
% Saved	69%	67%
Times Broken	4	2

Yuta broke his opponents 13 times with a 42% conversion rate. Shimizu lost his serve 4 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded. Rio broke his opponents 10 times with a 37% conversion rate. Rio conceded his serve twice and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.

Shimizu
	R1 Jin	R2 Zhou	1/4 Henning	Total
Score	6-4 6-2	6-2 6-1	6-4 5-7 7-5
Tot Set	2	2	3	7
Tot Games	18	15	34	67
pts	62-56	63-36	108-102	233-194
Total points	118	99	210	427
Winners	27	22	36	85
%Winners	44%	35%	33%	36%
SERVE
Aces	4	6	7	17
Double Faults	2	1	4	7
1st in	38/59	29/45	51/95	118/199
% 1st in	64%	64%	54%	59%
1st pts	27/38	22/29	36/51	85/118
% 1st pts	71%	76%	71%	72%
2nd pts	12/21	9/16	24/44	45/81
% 2nd pts	57%	56%	55%	56%
Breaks
Won	3	5	5	13
Converted	3/8	5/9	5/14	13/31
Converted %	38%	56%	36%	42%
Conceded	3	2	8	13
Saved	3/3	2/2	4/8	9
Saved %	100%	100%	50%	83%
Times Broken	0	0	4	4

Noguchi
	R1 Bobrov	R2 Mchugh	1/4 Shin	Total
Score	7-5 6-4	6-3 6-3	6-3 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	22	18	17	57
pts	75-60	67-46	55-34	197-140
Total points	135	113	89	337
Winners	36	22	26	84
%Winners	48%	33%	47%	43%
SERVE
Aces	1	1	2	4
Double Faults	1	1	1	3
1st in	45/63	27/46	30/45	102/154
% 1st in	71%	59%	67%	66%
1st pts	36/45	22/27	26/30	84/102
% 1st pts	80%	81%	87%	82%
2nd pts	10/18	14/19	8/15	32/52
% 2nd pts	56%	74%	53%	62%
Breaks
Won	3	3	4	10
Converted	3/8	3/10	4/9	10/27
Converted %	38%	30%	44%	37%
Conceded	5	0	1	6
Saved	4/5	0/0	0/1	4
Saved %	80%	–	0%	27%
Times Broken	1	0	1	2

Tennis Scores in Jinan Challenger

• Rio NoguchiNoguchi – Woobin ShinShin (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Yibing WuWu – Fajing SunSun (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Keegan SmithSmith – Ye Cong MoCong Mo (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Yuta ShimizuShimizu – Philip HenningHenning (6-4 5-7 7-5) – See score progression
• Francis Casey Alcantara/Fajing SunCasey Alcantara/Fajing Sun – Philip Henning/Kris Van WykHenning/Kris Van Wyk (1-6 6-4 10-8) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Yibing WuWu – Keegan SmithSmith (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Yuta ShimizuShimizu – Rio NoguchiNoguchi (2-0) – H2H and prediction