Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula will face off in the final of the Western & Southern Open for the 7^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 3:00 pm on CENTER COURT. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.46
Jessica Pegula -> 2.8

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula

This will be the 7^th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula fight against each other. The head to head is 4-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), but Pegula has a winning record of 2-1 on hard.

The last time that they competed against each other, Pegula won 6-4 6-3 in the R in Cancun back in 2023.

Highlights Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka – Cancun 31-October-2023

Aryna Sabalenka

Ranked no. 3, Sabalenka reached the final after defeating Unknown Player bye, Elisabetta Cocciaretto 6-3 6-4, Elina Svitolina 7-5 6-2, Liudmila Samsonova 6-3 6-2 and Iga Swiatek 6-3 6-3.

In the semifinal, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Swiatek (6-3 6-3). During the match, Sabalenka scored 75 points vs Swiatek’s 58. Sabalenka was exceptionally aggressive to blast 22 winners.

Regarding the service games, Sabalenka recorded 5 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve twice and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 52% of her first serves in, winning 67% (22/33) of the points behind her 1st serve and 53% (16/30) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Swiatek 5 times after converting 33% of her break points (5/15).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Belarussian hasn’t lost yet a set in this competition to conquer 58% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 68% of her matches (356-165). 22-6 on hard in 2024. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has an overall211-91 win-loss record in the last 9 years on hard.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title at the Australian Open where she defeated Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2.

Sabalenka has a composed 38-11 win-loss record in 2024, 22-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Jessica Pegula

Ranked no. 6, Pegula got to the final after defeating Unknown Player bye, Karolina Muchova 5-7 6-4 6-2, Taylor Townsend 6-2 6-3, Leylah Annie Fernandez 7-5 6-7(1) 7-6(3) and Paula Badosa Gibert 6-2 3-6 6-3.

In the semifinal, Pegula defeated Badosa (6-2 3-6 6-3). During the match Pegula scored 97 points vs Badosa’s 88. The American was pretty aggressive to blast 40 winners.

About the serving games, Pegula recorded 5 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Jessica Pegula lost the serve 3 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Pegula put 62% of her first serves in, winning 67% (40/60) of the points behind her 1st serve and 49% (18/37) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Badosa 5 times after converting 45% of her break points (5/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Berlin where she defeated Anna Kalinskaya in the final 6-7(0) 6-4 7-6(3) and in Toronto where she defeated Amanda Anisimova in the final 6-3 2-6 6-1.

Pegula has a composed 30-10 win-loss record in 2024, 20-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2020 and 2022. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Pegula
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	8	11
Tot Games	74	111
Pts	276-202	390-336
Total Points	478	726
Winners	109	148
%Winners	39%	38%

Both Sabalenka and Pegula played 4 matches. At the moment, Jessica Pegula dropped 3 sets while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t dropped a set so far. Sabalenka has played 3 set(s) less than Pegula (8 vs 11). Therefore, Sabalenka played 37 games less than Pegula. The Belarussian scored 109 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Pegula struck 148 winners (38%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Pegula
Aces	20	12
Avg per match	5	3
1st in	140/231	221/348
%1st in	61%	64%
1st pts	109/140	148/221
%1st pts	78%	67%
2nd pts	52/91	67/127
%2nd pts	57%	53%

Sabalenka fired 20 aces (5 per match). Pegula fired 12 aces (3 per match). Sabalenka won 78% points behind her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Pegula won 67% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Pegula
Won	14	22
Converted	14/34	22/46
% Converted	41%	48%
Conceded	17	37
Saved	14	24
% Saved	82%	65%
Times Broken	3	13

The Belarussian broke her opponents 14 times with a 41% conversion rate. The Belarussian conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 82% of the break points that she conceded. Pegula broke her opponents 22 times with a 48% conversion rate. Jessica conceded her serve 13 times and she saved 65% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R2 Cocciaretto	R3 Svitolina	1/4 Samsonova	1/2 Swiatek	Total
Score	6-3 6-4	7-5 6-2	6-3 6-2	6-3 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	19	20	17	18	74
pts	75-58	67-48	59-38	75-58	276-202
Total points	133	115	97	133	478
Winners	34	26	27	22	109
%Winners	45%	39%	46%	29%	39%
SERVE
Aces	5	5	5	5	20
Double Faults	3	3	0	1	7
1st in	38/61	35/57	34/50	33/63	140/231
% 1st in	62%	61%	68%	52%	61%
1st pts	34/38	26/35	27/34	22/33	109/140
% 1st pts	89%	74%	79%	67%	78%
2nd pts	11/23	14/22	11/16	16/30	52/91
% 2nd pts	48%	64%	69%	53%	57%
Breaks
Won	2	4	3	5	14
Converted	2/10	4/4	3/5	5/15	14/34
Converted %	20%	100%	60%	33%	41%
Conceded	3	5	3	6	17
Saved	3/3	4/5	3/3	4/6	14
Saved %	100%	80%	100%	67%	87%
Times Broken	0	1	0	2	3

Pegula
	R2 Muchova	R3 Townsend	1/4 Annie	1/2 Badosa	Total
Score	5-7 6-4 6-2	6-2 6-3	7-5 6-71 7-63	6-2 3-6 6-3
Tot Set	3	2	3	3	11
Tot Games	30	17	38	26	111
pts	97-84	63-38	133-126	97-88	390-336
Total points	181	101	259	185	726
Winners	30	29	49	40	148
%Winners	31%	46%	37%	41%	38%
SERVE
Aces	2	2	3	5	12
Double Faults	0	1	7	3	11
1st in	50/83	33/49	78/119	60/97	221/348
% 1st in	60%	67%	66%	62%	64%
1st pts	30/50	29/33	49/78	40/60	148/221
% 1st pts	60%	88%	63%	67%	67%
2nd pts	22/33	8/16	19/41	18/37	67/127
% 2nd pts	67%	50%	46%	49%	53%
Breaks
Won	6	4	7	5	22
Converted	6/15	4/5	7/15	5/11	22/46
Converted %	40%	80%	47%	45%	48%
Conceded	10	4	15	8	37
Saved	6/10	4/4	9/15	5/8	24
Saved %	60%	100%	60%	63%	71%
Times Broken	4	0	6	3	13

Tennis Scores in Cincinnati

• Clement GeensGeens – Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp (3-6 7-6² 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Jessica PegulaPegula (4-2) – H2H and prediction