Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka will square off in the semifinal of the Western & Southern Open for the 12th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 11:00 am on Center Court. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.43
Aryna Sabalenka -> 2.84
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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka
This will be the 12th time that Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka fight against each other. The head to head is 8-3 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), 3-2 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Swiatek won 6-2 6-3 in the final in Rome back in May 2024.
Highlights Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka – Rome 18-May-2024
Iga Swiatek
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26-8 | 21-6 | 5-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 64-9 | 29-5 | 26-2 | 7-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 68-11 | 42-8 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 67-9 | 42-6 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-15 | 18-10 | 12-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1she will start her run in Cincinnati after she played her last match in Cincinnati where she defeated 4-6 6-3 7-5 to Andreeva in the quarter on the 17th of August.
Swiatek has a compiled 55-6 win-loss record in 2024, 25-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Her best result of the season was conquering the title in Australia where she overcame Angelique Kerber in the final 6-3 6-0 and in Doha where she beat Elena Rybakina in the final 7-6(8) 6-2 and in Indian Wells where she overcame Maria Sakkari in the final 6-4 6-0 and in Madrid where she defeated Aryna Sabalenka in the final 7-5 4-6 7-6(7) and in Rome where she beat Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-2 6-3 and at the French Open where she beat Jasmine Paolini in the final 6-2 6-1.
Talking about her overall career, Swiatek has an overall 340-73 record. She has a positive 158-40 record on hard.
Previously in Cincinnati
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2023. See her history.
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 30-5 | 23-4 | 7-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, Sabalenka reached the semifinal after beating Unknown Player bye, Elisabetta Cocciaretto 6-3 6-4, Elina Svitolina 7-5 6-2 and Liudmila Samsonova 6-3 6-2.
In the quarter, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Samsonova (6-3 6-2). During the match Sabalenka scored 59 points vs Samsonova’s 38. Aryna was quite aggressive to blast 27 winners.
About the serving games, Sabalenka bagged 5 aces and she was pretty consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Aryna Sabalenka was extremely effective on serve to win 79% (27/34) of her 1st serve and 69% (11/16) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Sabalenka broke Samsonova 3 times after converting 60% of her break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 58% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title at the Australian Open where she beat Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2.
Aryna has a compiled 37-11 win-loss record in 2024, 21-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cincinnati
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2018, 2022 and 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Swiatek | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 74 | 56 |
| Pts | 262-200 | 201-144 |
| Total Points | 462 | 345 |
| Winners | 102 | 87 |
| %Winners | 39% | 43% |
Both Swiatek and Sabalenka played 3 matches. At the moment, Iga Swiatek surrendered 2 sets while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t conceded a set so far. Swiatek has played 2 sets more than Sabalenka (8 vs 6). Therefore, Swiatek played 18 games more than Sabalenka. Swiatek scored 102 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Aryna fired 87 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Swiatek | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 13 | 15 |
| Avg per match | 4.3 | 5 |
| 1st in | 139/212 | 107/168 |
| %1st in | 66% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 102/139 | 87/107 |
| %1st pts | 73% | 81% |
| 2nd pts | 45/73 | 36/61 |
| %2nd pts | 62% | 59% |
Swiatek blasted 13 aces (4.3 per match). Sabalenka made 15 aces (5 per match). Swiatek won 73% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 62% of the points. On the other side, Sabalenka won 81% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 59% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Swiatek | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 14 | 9 |
| Converted | 14/38 | 9/19 |
| % Converted | 37% | 47% |
| Conceded | 7 | 11 |
| Saved | 3 | 10 |
| % Saved | 43% | 91% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 1 |
Iga broke her opponents 14 times with a 37% conversion rate. Iga dropped her serve 4 times and she saved 43% of the break points that she conceded. Aryna broke her opponents 9 times with a 47% conversion rate. Aryna conceded her serve once and she saved 91% of the break points that she conceded.
| Swiatek | ||
| Total | ||
|---|---|---|
| Score | ||
| Tot Set | 0 | |
| Tot Games | 0 | |
| pts | 0-0 | |
| Total points | 0 | |
| Winners | 0 | |
| %Winners | 0% | |
| SERVE | ||
| Aces | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | |
| 1st in | 0/0 | |
| % 1st in | 0% | |
| 1st pts | 0/0 | |
| % 1st pts | % | |
| 2nd pts | 0/0 | |
| % 2nd pts | 0% | |
| Breaks | ||
| Won | 0 | |
| Converted | 0/0 | |
| Converted % | 0% | |
| Conceded | 0 | |
| Saved | 0 | |
| Saved % | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | |
| Sabalenka | |||||
| R2 Cocciaretto |
R3 Svitolina |
1/4 Samsonova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 7-5 6-2 | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 20 | 17 | 56 | |
| pts | 75-58 | 67-48 | 59-38 | 201-144 | |
| Total points | 133 | 115 | 97 | 345 | |
| Winners | 34 | 26 | 27 | 87 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 39% | 46% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 5 | 5 | 5 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 38/61 | 35/57 | 34/50 | 107/168 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 61% | 68% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 34/38 | 26/35 | 27/34 | 87/107 | |
| % 1st pts | 89% | 74% | 79% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/23 | 14/22 | 11/16 | 36/61 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 64% | 69% | 59% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | |
| Converted | 2/10 | 4/4 | 3/5 | 9/19 | |
| Converted % | 20% | 100% | 60% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 5 | 3 | 11 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 4/5 | 3/3 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 80% | 100% | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWLWW
WWWWWLWWWW Tennis Scores in Cincinnati
- Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Marvin MoellerMoeller (6-4 2-6 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Clement GeensGeens – Stephan GerritsenGerritsen (7-5 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (8-3) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert (2-0) – H2H and prediction
