Andrey Rublev and Matteo Arnaldi will clash against each other in the semifinal of the National Bank Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 5:00 pm on COURT CENTRAL. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Andrey Rublev who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Andrey Rublev is the pick to win this match.
Andrey Rublev -> 1.33
Matteo Arnaldi -> 3.34
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Prediction and head to head Andrey Rublev vs. Matteo Arnaldi
This will be the 3rd time that Andrey Rublev and Matteo Arnaldi play each other. The head to head is 1-1 for Rublev and Arnaldi (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Arnaldi won 7-6(6) 6-2 6-4 in the 3rd round in at the French Open back in May 2024.
Highlights Matteo Arnaldi vs Andrey Rublev – French Open 31-May-2024
Andrey Rublev
32 - 15win/loss
8
5
LLLWLLWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 43-26 | 26-11 | 11-6 | 6-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-26 | 23-12 | 19-5 | 6-7 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 51-20 | 19-7 | 14-6 | 18-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 53-23 | 25-10 | 9-5 | 12-6 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 41-10 | 17-4 | 10-2 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 8, Rublev got to the semifinal after beating Tomas Martin Etcheverry 7-6(3) 6-2, Brandon Nakashima 6-2 6-2 and Jannik Sinner 6-3 1-6 6-2.
In the quarter, The Russian defeated Sinner (6-3 1-6 6-2). During the match, Rublev scored 78 points vs Sinner’s 74. Rublev was very aggressive to blast 36 winners.
Talking about the service games, Rublev made 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Andrey Rublev lost the serve twice and he saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Rublev put 62% of his first serves in, winning 73% (36/49) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (14/30) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Sinner 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Andrey has conceded 1 set in this event to conquer 56% of the points he played.
Rublev has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (421-235). 18-6 on hard in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Rublev has a composed 171-88 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in Hong Kong where he beat Emil Ruusuvuori in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Madrid where he beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final 4-6 7-5 7-5.
Rublev has a composed 31-15 win-loss record in 2024, 18-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Toronto
Matteo Arnaldi
25 - 20win/loss
37
30
LLLWLWLWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 29-26 | 17-13 | 10-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-26 | 21-15 | 23-7 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-35 | 9-3 | 37-20 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-24 | 2-1 | 51-18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 17-9 | 16-4 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 46, Arnaldi reached the semifinal after defeating Mackenzie Mcdonald 4-6 6-4 6-4, Karen Khachanov 7-5 7-5, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 4-6 7-6(5) 3-0 ret. and Kei Nishikori 6-4 7-5.
In the quarter, Matteo had a good straight sets win against Nishikori (6-4 7-5). During the match Arnaldi scored 76 points vs Nishikori’s 73. The Italian was quite aggressive to blast 26 winners.
About the serving games, Arnaldi made 5 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve twice and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 48% of his first serves in, winning 74% (26/35) of the points behind his 1st serve and 45% (17/38) on the 2nd serve. Arnaldi broke Nishikori 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Arnaldi has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.
The Italian has a compiled 25-19 win-loss record in 2024, 14-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Toronto
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 61 | 102 |
| Pts | 207-165 | 342-319 |
| Total Points | 372 | 661 |
| Winners | 82 | 126 |
| %Winners | 40% | 37% |
Rublev played 3 matches while Arnaldi competed in 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Andrey Rublev conceded 1 set, while Matteo Arnaldi conceded 2 sets. Rublev has played 4 set(s) less than Arnaldi (7 vs 11). Therefore, Rublev played 41 games less than Arnaldi. Rublev scored 82 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Matteo made 126 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 17 | 19 |
| Avg per match | 5.7 | 4.8 |
| 1st in | 102/176 | 175/337 |
| %1st in | 58% | 52% |
| 1st pts | 82/102 | 126/175 |
| %1st pts | 80% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 41/74 | 74/162 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 46% |
Rublev made 17 aces (5.7 per match). Arnaldi fired 19 aces (4.8 per match). Rublev won 80% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Arnaldi won 72% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 19 |
| Converted | 10/20 | 19/35 |
| % Converted | 50% | 54% |
| Conceded | 13 | 33 |
| Saved | 10 | 20 |
| % Saved | 77% | 61% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 13 |
Rublev broke his opponents 10 times with a 50% conversion rate. Andrey lost his serve 3 times and he saved 77% of the break points that he conceded. Matteo broke his opponents 19 times with a 54% conversion rate. Arnaldi conceded his serve 13 times and he saved 61% of the break points that he conceded.
| Rublev | |||||
| R2 Etcheverry |
R3 Nakashima |
1/4 Sinner |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-63 6-2 | 6-2 6-2 | 6-3 1-6 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 16 | 24 | 61 | |
| pts | 70-54 | 59-37 | 78-74 | 207-165 | |
| Total points | 124 | 96 | 152 | 372 | |
| Winners | 25 | 21 | 36 | 82 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 36% | 46% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 9 | 4 | 4 | 17 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 29/56 | 24/41 | 49/79 | 102/176 | |
| % 1st in | 52% | 59% | 62% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 25/29 | 21/24 | 36/49 | 82/102 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 88% | 73% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/27 | 11/17 | 14/30 | 41/74 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 65% | 47% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | 4/10 | 3/7 | 10/20 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 40% | 43% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 0 | 12 | 13 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 0/0 | 10/12 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 0% | – | 83% | 28% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Arnaldi | ||||||
| R1 Mcdonald |
R2 Khachanov |
R3 Davidovich Fokina |
1/4 Nishikori |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-4 6-4 | 7-5 7-5 | 4-6 7-65 3-0 ret. | 6-4 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 24 | 26 | 22 | 102 | |
| pts | 92-89 | 78-69 | 96-88 | 76-73 | 342-319 | |
| Total points | 181 | 147 | 184 | 149 | 661 | |
| Winners | 31 | 37 | 32 | 26 | 126 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 47% | 33% | 34% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 46/99 | 46/68 | 48/97 | 35/73 | 175/337 | |
| % 1st in | 46% | 68% | 49% | 48% | 52% | |
| 1st pts | 31/46 | 37/46 | 32/48 | 26/35 | 126/175 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 80% | 67% | 74% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 25/53 | 7/22 | 25/49 | 17/38 | 74/162 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 32% | 51% | 45% | 46% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 19 | |
| Converted | 6/9 | 4/8 | 5/9 | 4/9 | 19/35 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 50% | 56% | 44% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 33 | |
| Saved | 3/8 | 3/5 | 10/14 | 4/6 | 20 | |
| Saved % | 38% | 60% | 71% | 67% | 79% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLWLLWWLW
LLLWLWLWWL Tennis Scores in Montreal
- Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic – Kevin Krawietz/Tim PuetzKrawietz/Tim Puetz (3-6 6-2 10-5) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Jannik SinnerSinner (6-3 1-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos – Simone Bolelli/Andrea VavassoriBolelli/Andrea Vavassori (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Kei NishikoriNishikori (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
- Rajeev Ram/Joe SalisburyRam/Joe Salisbury – Daniil Medvedev/Roman SafiullinMedvedev/Roman Safiullin (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Jannik SinnerSinner (6-3 1-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Kei NishikoriNishikori (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Andrey RublevRublev – (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Alexander ZverevZverev (0-0) – H2H and prediction
