Andrey Rublev and Matteo Arnaldi will clash against each other in the semifinal of the National Bank Open for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 5:00 pm on COURT CENTRAL. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Andrey Rublev who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Andrey Rublev is the pick to win this match.
Andrey Rublev -> 1.33
Matteo Arnaldi -> 3.34

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Prediction and head to head Andrey Rublev vs. Matteo Arnaldi

This will be the 3^rd time that Andrey Rublev and Matteo Arnaldi play each other. The head to head is 1-1 for Rublev and Arnaldi (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Arnaldi won 7-6(6) 6-2 6-4 in the 3^rd round in at the French Open back in May 2024.

Highlights Matteo Arnaldi vs Andrey Rublev – French Open 31-May-2024

Andrey Rublev

Ranked no. 8, Rublev got to the semifinal after beating Tomas Martin Etcheverry 7-6(3) 6-2, Brandon Nakashima 6-2 6-2 and Jannik Sinner 6-3 1-6 6-2.

In the quarter, The Russian defeated Sinner (6-3 1-6 6-2). During the match, Rublev scored 78 points vs Sinner’s 74. Rublev was very aggressive to blast 36 winners.

Talking about the service games, Rublev made 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Andrey Rublev lost the serve twice and he saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Rublev put 62% of his first serves in, winning 73% (36/49) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (14/30) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Sinner 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Andrey has conceded 1 set in this event to conquer 56% of the points he played.

Rublev has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (421-235). 18-6 on hard in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Rublev has a composed 171-88 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the current season was winning the title in Hong Kong where he beat Emil Ruusuvuori in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Madrid where he beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final 4-6 7-5 7-5.

Rublev has a composed 31-15 win-loss record in 2024, 18-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Toronto

Matteo Arnaldi

Ranked no. 46, Arnaldi reached the semifinal after defeating Mackenzie Mcdonald 4-6 6-4 6-4, Karen Khachanov 7-5 7-5, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 4-6 7-6(5) 3-0 ret. and Kei Nishikori 6-4 7-5.

In the quarter, Matteo had a good straight sets win against Nishikori (6-4 7-5). During the match Arnaldi scored 76 points vs Nishikori’s 73. The Italian was quite aggressive to blast 26 winners.

About the serving games, Arnaldi made 5 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve twice and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 48% of his first serves in, winning 74% (26/35) of the points behind his 1st serve and 45% (17/38) on the 2nd serve. Arnaldi broke Nishikori 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Arnaldi has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.

The Italian has a compiled 25-19 win-loss record in 2024, 14-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Toronto

Previously, his best result was reaching the 2^nd round in 2023. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Rublev	Arnaldi
Match played	3	4
Tot Set	7	11
Tot Games	61	102
Pts	207-165	342-319
Total Points	372	661
Winners	82	126
%Winners	40%	37%

Rublev played 3 matches while Arnaldi competed in 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Andrey Rublev conceded 1 set, while Matteo Arnaldi conceded 2 sets. Rublev has played 4 set(s) less than Arnaldi (7 vs 11). Therefore, Rublev played 41 games less than Arnaldi. Rublev scored 82 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Matteo made 126 winners (37%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Rublev	Arnaldi
Aces	17	19
Avg per match	5.7	4.8
1st in	102/176	175/337
%1st in	58%	52%
1st pts	82/102	126/175
%1st pts	80%	72%
2nd pts	41/74	74/162
%2nd pts	55%	46%

Rublev made 17 aces (5.7 per match). Arnaldi fired 19 aces (4.8 per match). Rublev won 80% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Arnaldi won 72% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 46% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Rublev	Arnaldi
Won	10	19
Converted	10/20	19/35
% Converted	50%	54%
Conceded	13	33
Saved	10	20
% Saved	77%	61%
Times Broken	3	13

Rublev broke his opponents 10 times with a 50% conversion rate. Andrey lost his serve 3 times and he saved 77% of the break points that he conceded. Matteo broke his opponents 19 times with a 54% conversion rate. Arnaldi conceded his serve 13 times and he saved 61% of the break points that he conceded.

Rublev
	R2 Etcheverry	R3 Nakashima	1/4 Sinner	Total
Score	7-63 6-2	6-2 6-2	6-3 1-6 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	3	7
Tot Games	21	16	24	61
pts	70-54	59-37	78-74	207-165
Total points	124	96	152	372
Winners	25	21	36	82
%Winners	36%	36%	46%	40%
SERVE
Aces	9	4	4	17
Double Faults	1	2	1	4
1st in	29/56	24/41	49/79	102/176
% 1st in	52%	59%	62%	58%
1st pts	25/29	21/24	36/49	82/102
% 1st pts	86%	88%	73%	80%
2nd pts	16/27	11/17	14/30	41/74
% 2nd pts	59%	65%	47%	55%
Breaks
Won	3	4	3	10
Converted	3/3	4/10	3/7	10/20
Converted %	100%	40%	43%	50%
Conceded	1	0	12	13
Saved	0/1	0/0	10/12	10
Saved %	0%	–	83%	28%
Times Broken	1	0	2	3

Arnaldi
	R1 Mcdonald	R2 Khachanov	R3 Davidovich Fokina	1/4 Nishikori	Total
Score	4-6 6-4 6-4	7-5 7-5	4-6 7-65 3-0 ret.	6-4 7-5
Tot Set	3	2	3	2	10
Tot Games	30	24	26	22	102
pts	92-89	78-69	96-88	76-73	342-319
Total points	181	147	184	149	661
Winners	31	37	32	26	126
%Winners	34%	47%	33%	34%	37%
SERVE
Aces	4	6	4	5	19
Double Faults	1	2	7	5	15
1st in	46/99	46/68	48/97	35/73	175/337
% 1st in	46%	68%	49%	48%	52%
1st pts	31/46	37/46	32/48	26/35	126/175
% 1st pts	67%	80%	67%	74%	72%
2nd pts	25/53	7/22	25/49	17/38	74/162
% 2nd pts	47%	32%	51%	45%	46%
Breaks
Won	6	4	5	4	19
Converted	6/9	4/8	5/9	4/9	19/35
Converted %	67%	50%	56%	44%	54%
Conceded	8	5	14	6	33
Saved	3/8	3/5	10/14	4/6	20
Saved %	38%	60%	71%	67%	79%
Times Broken	5	2	4	2	13

Tennis Scores in Montreal

• Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic – Kevin Krawietz/Tim PuetzKrawietz/Tim Puetz (3-6 6-2 10-5) – See score progression
• Andrey RublevRublev – Jannik SinnerSinner (6-3 1-6 6-2) – See score progression
• Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos – Simone Bolelli/Andrea VavassoriBolelli/Andrea Vavassori (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Kei NishikoriNishikori (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
• Rajeev Ram/Joe SalisburyRam/Joe Salisbury – Daniil Medvedev/Roman SafiullinMedvedev/Roman Safiullin (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Andrey RublevRublev – Jannik SinnerSinner (6-3 1-6 6-2) – See score progression
• Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Kei NishikoriNishikori (6-4 7-5) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Andrey RublevRublev – (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Sebastian KordaKorda – Alexander ZverevZverev (0-0) – H2H and prediction