Shintaro Mochizuki and Colton Smith will square off in the qualifications of the Lincoln Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 11:00 am on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Shintaro Mochizuki who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Shintaro Mochizuki is the pick to win this match.
Shintaro Mochizuki -> 1.47
Colton Smith -> 2.56

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Prediction and head to head Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Colton Smith

There is no head to head record between Shintaro Mochizuki and Colton Smith since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Ranked no. 160, Mochizuki got to the qualifications after defeating Kelsey Stevenson 6-4 6-2.

In the qualifications, Shintaro had a good straight sets win against Stevenson (6-4 6-2). During the match, Mochizuki scored 69 points vs Stevenson’s 48. The Japanese was very aggressive to blast 19 winners.

Talking about the service games, Mochizuki fired 4 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Shintaro Mochizuki was very effective on serve to win 83% (19/23) of his 1st serve and 55% (11/20) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Shintaro broke Stevenson 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).

Mochizuki has a winning match record in the last 7 years having won 54% of his matches (163-140). 7-10 on hard in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Mochizuki has an overall84-73 win-loss record in the last 7 years on hard.

Shintaro has a compiled 16-20 win-loss record in 2024, 7-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Lincoln Challenger

Mochizuki has never competed in this tournament before.

Colton Smith

Ranked no. 829, Smith reached the qualifications after beating Quinn Vandecasteele 6-4 4-6 6-3.

In the qualifications, The American defeated Vandecasteele (6-4 4-6 6-3). During the match Smith scored 105 points vs Vandecasteele’s 98. The American was extremely aggressive to blast 36 winners.

About the serving games, Smith managed to score 2 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Colton Smith lost the serve 5 times and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Smith put 57% of his first serves in, winning 68% (36/53) of the points behind his 1st serve and 40% (16/40) on the 2nd serve. Smith broke Vandecasteele 7 times after converting 44% of his break points (7/16).

Smith’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in M15 Los Angeles,M25 Dallas and M25 Champaign.

Colton has a composed 23-4 win-loss record in 2024, 17-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Mochizuki	Smith
Match played	1	1
Tot Set	2	3
Tot Games	18	29
Pts	69-48	105-98
Total Points	117	203
Winners	19	36
%Winners	28%	34%

Both Mochizuki and Smith played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.At the moment, Colton Smith surrendered 1 set while Shintaro Mochizuki hasn’t lost a set so far. Mochizuki has played 1 set(s) less than Smith (2 vs 3). Therefore, Mochizuki played 11 games less than Smith. Shintaro scored 19 winners (28% of the total points). On the other side, Smith struck 36 winners (34%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Mochizuki	Smith
Aces	4	2
Avg per match	4	2
1st in	23/43	53/93
%1st in	53%	57%
1st pts	19/23	36/53
%1st pts	83%	68%
2nd pts	11/20	16/40
%2nd pts	55%	40%

Mochizuki fired 4 aces . Smith scored 2 aces . Mochizuki won 83% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Smith won 68% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 40% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Mochizuki	Smith
Won	5	7
Converted	5/10	7/16
% Converted	50%	44%
Conceded	2	11
Saved	0	6
% Saved	0%	55%
Times Broken	2	5

Shintaro broke his opponent 5 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Japanese dropped his serve twice and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded. Colton broke his opponent 7 times with a 44% conversion rate. The American conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 55% of the break points that he conceded.

Mochizuki
	Q1 Stevenson	Total
Score	6-4 6-2
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	18	18
pts	69-48	69-48
Total points	117	117
Winners	19	19
%Winners	28%	28%
SERVE
Aces	4	4
Double Faults	3	3
1st in	23/43	23/43
% 1st in	53%	53%
1st pts	19/23	19/23
% 1st pts	83%	83%
2nd pts	11/20	11/20
% 2nd pts	55%	55%
Breaks
Won	5	5
Converted	5/10	5/10
Converted %	50%	50%
Conceded	2	2
Saved	0/2	0
Saved %	0%	0%
Times Broken	2	2

Smith
	Q1 Vandecasteele	Total
Score	6-4 4-6 6-3
Tot Set	3	3
Tot Games	29	29
pts	105-98	105-98
Total points	203	203
Winners	36	36
%Winners	34%	34%
SERVE
Aces	2	2
Double Faults	6	6
1st in	53/93	53/93
% 1st in	57%	57%
1st pts	36/53	36/53
% 1st pts	68%	68%
2nd pts	16/40	16/40
% 2nd pts	40%	40%
Breaks
Won	7	7
Converted	7/16	7/16
Converted %	44%	44%
Conceded	11	11
Saved	6/11	6
Saved %	55%	55%
Times Broken	5	5

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