Joao Fonseca and Li Tu will square off in the final of the Lexington Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:00 pm on STADIUM 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Joao Fonseca who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Joao Fonseca is the pick to win this match.
Joao Fonseca -> 1.5
Li Tu -> 2.47

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Prediction and head to head Joao Fonseca vs. Li Tu

There is no head to head record between Joao Fonseca and Li Tu since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.

Joao Fonseca

Ranked no. 214 (career-high), the Brazilian got to the final after defeating Kaichi Uchida 6-3 6-3, Liam Draxl 7-6(3) 7-5, Gabriel Diallo 6-2 6-2 and Hugo Grenier 6-3 7-5.

In the quarter, Joao had a good straight sets win against Diallo (6-2 6-2). During the match, Fonseca scored 61 points vs Diallo’s 44. The Brazilian was extremely aggressive to blast 29 winners.

Talking about the service games, Fonseca made 4 aces and he committed only 7 double faults. Joao Fonseca conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 3 break points. Furthermore, Fonseca put 62% of his first serves in, winning 74% (29/39) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (11/24) on the 2nd serve. Joao broke Diallo 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Joao hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this competition to conquer 55% of the points he played.

Fonseca has a winning record in the last 3 years having won 59% of his matches (37-26). 5-1 on hard in 2024. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Fonseca has an aggregate6-2 win-loss record in the last 3 years on hard.

Joao’s best result of the year was getting to the final in the Asuncion Challenger.

Joao has a compiled 21-16 win-loss record in 2024, 5-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Lexington Challenger

Fonseca has never competed in this tournament before.

Li Tu

Ranked no. 222, Li got to the final after defeating Taha Baadi 1-6 6-2 6-4

, James Kent Trotter 6-4 6-4, Emilio Nava 7-6(5) 6-3 and Chak Lam Coleman Wong 6-2 6-3.

In the semifinal, Tu had a good straight sets win against Lam Coleman Wong (6-2 6-3). During the match Tu scored 60 points vs Lam Coleman Wong’s 38. Li was pretty aggressive to blast 21 winners.

About the serving games, Tu made 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Li Tu was pretty effective on serve to win 78% (21/27) of his 1st serve and 67% (12/18) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Li broke Lam Coleman Wong 5 times after converting 83% of his break points (5/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Tu has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

The Australian’s best result of the year was getting to the final in M25 Traralgon.

Li has an overall 23-17 win-loss record in 2024, 18-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Fonseca	Tu
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	8	9
Tot Games	80	84
Pts	292-242	264-213
Total Points	534	477
Winners	122	116
%Winners	42%	44%

Both Fonseca and Tu played 4 matches. At the moment, Li Tu surrendered 1 set while Joao Fonseca hasn’t dropped a set so far. Fonseca has played 1 set(s) less than Tu (8 vs 9). Therefore, Fonseca played 4 games less than Tu. Fonseca scored 122 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Li blasted 116 winners (44%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Fonseca	Tu
Aces	19	27
Avg per match	4.8	6.8
1st in	167/274	149/237
%1st in	61%	63%
1st pts	122/167	116/149
%1st pts	73%	78%
2nd pts	53/107	56/88
%2nd pts	50%	64%

Fonseca blasted 19 aces (4.8 per match). Tu fired 27 aces (6.8 per match). Fonseca won 73% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Tu won 78% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 64% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Fonseca	Tu
Won	17	12
Converted	17/31	12/23
% Converted	55%	52%
Conceded	27	12
Saved	21	7
% Saved	78%	58%
Times Broken	6	5

Fonseca broke his opponents 17 times with a 55% conversion rate. Fonseca conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 78% of the break points that he conceded. The Australian broke his opponents 12 times with a 52% conversion rate. Li conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 58% of the break points that he conceded.

Fonseca
	R1 Uchida	R2 Draxl	1/4 Diallo	1/2 Grenier	Total
Score	6-3 6-3	7-63 7-5	6-2 6-2	6-3 7-5
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	18	25	16	21	80
pts	64-53	94-84	61-44	73-61	292-242
Total points	117	178	105	134	534
Winners	27	37	29	29	122
%Winners	42%	39%	48%	40%	42%
SERVE
Aces	7	5	4	3	19
Double Faults	0	1	7	4	12
1st in	36/57	55/88	39/63	37/66	167/274
% 1st in	63%	63%	62%	56%	61%
1st pts	27/36	37/55	29/39	29/37	122/167
% 1st pts	75%	67%	74%	78%	73%
2nd pts	13/21	17/33	11/24	12/29	53/107
% 2nd pts	62%	52%	46%	41%	50%
Breaks
Won	3	5	4	5	17
Converted	3/6	5/12	4/8	5/5	17/31
Converted %	50%	42%	50%	100%	55%
Conceded	8	11	3	5	27
Saved	8/8	7/11	3/3	3/5	21
Saved %	100%	64%	100%	60%	81%
Times Broken	0	4	0	2	6

Tu
	R1 Baadi	R2 Kent	1/4 Nava	1/2 Lam Coleman Wong	Total
Score	1-6 6-2 6-4	6-4 6-4	7-65 6-3	6-2 6-3
Tot Set	3	2	2	2	9
Tot Games	25	20	22	17	84
pts	75-74	62-47	67-54	60-38	264-213
Total points	149	109	121	98	477
Winners	32	32	31	21	116
%Winners	43%	52%	46%	35%	44%
SERVE
Aces	6	5	11	5	27
Double Faults	1	5	0	1	7
1st in	47/81	39/52	36/59	27/45	149/237
% 1st in	58%	75%	61%	60%	63%
1st pts	32/47	32/39	31/36	21/27	116/149
% 1st pts	68%	82%	86%	78%	78%
2nd pts	18/34	7/13	19/23	12/18	56/88
% 2nd pts	53%	54%	83%	67%	64%
Breaks
Won	3	3	1	5	12
Converted	3/7	3/8	1/2	5/6	12/23
Converted %	43%	38%	50%	83%	52%
Conceded	6	3	0	3	12
Saved	3/6	2/3	0/0	2/3	7
Saved %	50%	67%	–	67%	46%
Times Broken	3	1	0	1	5

Tennis Scores in Lexington Challenger

• Andre Goransson/Sem VerbeekGoransson/Sem Verbeek – Yuta Shimizu/James Kent TrotterShimizu/James Kent Trotter (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

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